Machibet AffiliateCommanders vs. Texans Picks, Predictions NFL Week 11: Can Houston Upset Washington?

The Washington Commanders have won four of their last five games and take on the one-win Houston Texans, who have lost four in a row. Read on for our top Commanders-Texans picks for Week 11.

The Commanders became the first team to defeat the Philadelphia Eagles this season with a 32-21 win on Monday Night Football. The win was their fourth in five games and it brought them back to .500 after a 1-5 start. Head coach Ron Rivera announced that Taylor Heinicke will remain the starting quarterback this week even though Carson Wentz is ready to play.

The Texans have lost four in a row, holding the worst record in football. However, four of their seven losses this season have been by one possession, including last week’s 24-16 loss to the Giants.

Here are our Commanders vs. Texans NFL picks for Week 11 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, PointsBet, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top picks for Week 11.

Commanders vs. Texans Game Info

Date: Sunday, Nov. 20, 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
Weather: 54 degrees, 21% chance of precipitation, 9-mph winds

Commanders vs. Texans Odds

Commanders vs. Texans Analysis

The Commanders opened as 2.5-point favorites, but it didn’t take long for the line to move to the key number. In fact, many books had the line at Washington -3.5 before it drifted back to -3. A majority of bettors are backing Washington to cover as a small road favorite.

As for the total, the number opened at 40.5 and it has actually gone up to 41. With the number so low, 77% of the cash and 68% of the tickets are on the Over.

Commanders vs. Texans Picks

Commanders vs. Texans ATS Pick

Texans +3 (-104) ★★

When this line opened at Washington -2.5, it felt like oddsmakers were setting a trap for bettors. The Commanders are riding high after taking down the Eagles last week, but they’re running into a tricky matchup with a Texans team that has covered the spread four times this season.

Houston has the ability to control the clock with Dameon Pierce, who has 772 yards rushing this season. Additionally, the Commanders have been in nothing but close games for the last six weeks. Five of their games have been decided by five points or fewer, and last week’s game was a five-point contest until Washington scored a touchdown with no time on the clock.

This line could go either way, but at 3 or higher, we’re taking the Texans. If it drops to 2.5 or lower, then Washington is the play.

Commanders vs. Texans O/U Pick

Under 41 (-107) ★★★

This game features two teams in the bottom 10 of scoring in the NFL this season. The Texans are averaging just 16.6 points per game, while the Commanders are averaging 19.1.

Washington has scored 23 or fewer points in seven of their last eight games, while the Texans have scored 20 or more just once in their last five.

This is a low total, but both of these teams want to run the ball and control the clock. Expect them both to have success and keep this total Under.

Commanders vs. Texans Prop Pick

Brian Robinson Over 63.5 rushing yards (-115) ★★★★

This line almost feels too easy. It seems as though oddsmakers are expecting the Commanders to be sluggish against a pesky Texans team. However, even if the Texans play from ahead for most of the game, Robinson should still clear this number with no issue.

Since coming back from injury, Robinson has had more carries than Antonio Gibson in every single game. Last week, Robinson carried the ball 26 times for 86 yards in the Commanders' win over the Eagles.

While Gibson is still a big part of the Washington offense, his carries won’t be enough to prevent Robinson from going over this number against a defense allowing 181.8 yards on the ground per game.

Where to Bet on Commanders vs. Texans Picks

Best NFL Betting Sites

Commanders vs. Texans Week 11 picks made 11/17/2022 at 1:20 p.m. ET

Written By:
Philip Wood

Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.