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Commanders vs. 49ers Odds, Picks, Predictions Week 16: Can Washington Keep Things Close?

Connor Cooper

Last Updated: December 24, 2022 5:15 AM EST • 2 min 15 sec read.

The red-hot San Francisco 49ers meet the Washington Commanders who are fighting for a playoff spot. Read on for our top Commanders-49ers NFL pick based on current odds.

Washington comes off its second loss in nine games, falling 20-12 at home to the New York Giants. At 7-6-1, the Commanders can’t afford many more slip-ups if they want to hold onto an NFC wild card berth. Washington enters Week 16 with a half-game lead over the Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions for the conference’s final playoff spot.

The 49ers already locked up a postseason berth, clinching the NFC West title with last Thursday’s 21-13 victory in Seattle. San Francisco is playing its best football of the season, winning seven straight and covering five in a row coming into this meeting with the Commanders.

Here is our best Commanders vs. 49ers NFL Week 16 pick (odds via k; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NFL Best Bets and all of our top NFL Picks for Week 16.  

Commanders vs. 49ers Game Info

  • Date: Saturday, Dec. 24, 4:05 p.m. ET
  • TV: FOX
  • Location: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
  • Weather: 65 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 3-mph winds

Commanders vs. 49ers Odds

Commanders vs. 49ers Odds Analysis

The line opened with San Francisco favored by 6.5 moved to 7, then slid back to the original number. The 49ers have received 62% of the money and 85% of tickets.

The total has dropped from 41.5 to 37.5 across the board. The Under has received 70% of the cash and the Over has drawn 65% of the tickets.

Commanders vs. 49ers Pick

Commanders +6.5 ⭐⭐⭐

Washington’s 20-12 defeat to the Giants was the first time in two months the Commanders lost a game by more than a touchdown. The final score was also extremely deceiving, since Washington appeared to pull within 20-18 with 1:03 left before the refs overturned its touchdown with a controversial illegal formation penalty.

When your defense plays as well as the Commanders, you’re always in the game. Washington hasn't allowed more than 21 points since Week 4 and is 9-2-1 to the Under in its last 12. The Commanders’ D is the biggest test so far for Niners quarterback Brock Purdy, who faced a soft Miami secondary, the underachieving Tampa Bay Bucs and the struggling Seahawks since taking over from injured Jimmy Garoppolo.

San Francisco’s defense plays at an extremely high level as well, entering Week 16 as the NFL’s best in points allowed, rushing yards allowed and total yards allowed. We would love to back the Under in this spot but all the value left after the early line move dropped the total to 37.5. Instead, back the motivated underdog in what should be a low-scoring game that'll be difficult for either team to win by margin.

Commanders vs. 49ers Best Odds

PointsBet (-105)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
+6.5 (-110)+6.5 (-106)+6.5 (-110)+6.5 (-115)+6.5 (-105)

The value here comes down to the juice (or lack thereof), with all five books carrying the same spread as of Saturday morning. PointsBet wins out barely over FanDuel, with DraftKings and BetMGM next in line. Caesars offers the worst odds on this play.

Commanders-49ers pick made 12/22/2022 at 10:09 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Connor Cooper
Connor Cooper has written about sports in various capacities for more than 20 years, including as a newspaper reporter, sports handicapper, and betting analyst. He originates hockey plays every day throughout the NHL season, regularly bets his own opinions on NFL and college football, and relies on handicappers he trusts to find daily action in basketball, baseball, soccer, tennis, and golf. A diehard Maple Leafs and Blue Jays fan growing up in the Toronto area, Connor quickly shed all his allegiances once he realized that making money betting on sports was much more fun than cheering for his favorite team. Connor won’t hesitate to bet on — or against — anybody if that’s where the value lies. In addition to analyzing recent and season-long statistics, Connor always looks to account for the human element when breaking down games, weighing situational and motivational factors into his handicapping process. He's also a big believer in finding creative ways to generate more value, constantly scouring BetMGM, Caesar, FanDuel, and other regulated sportsbooks' derivative markets such as team totals, alternate lines, and player props.