NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds Entering Week 18: Darnold Trying to Chase Down Burrow

There's a massive battle atop the NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds entering Week 18.

What's become a two-quarterback showdown has narrowed significantly over a short period as Cincinnati Bengals passer Joe Burrow and Minnesota Vikings signal-caller Sam Darnold sprint to the finish in this market.

Burrow already took the stage on Saturday night, with his Bengals holding on for a critical victory to keep their NFL playoff odds alive, though he was less than impressive while posting an 89.9 quarterback rating. Now Darnold gets his chance under the prime-time spotlight on Sunday during a colossal clash with the Detroit Lions to determine both the NFC North winner and the top seed in the conference.

The Vikings enter the matchup as 2.5- or 3-point underdogs by the Sunday Night Football odds. Darnold will be attempting to improve their Super Bowl odds while also trying to leap past Burrow again to earn the NFL Comeback Player of the Year honors.

Let's examine how the race breaks down.

NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds

Editor's note: All of our best NFL betting sites have now pulled this market, at least for now. Below are the closing odds.

NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds via our best NFL prop betting sites after Week 17. See our NFL player prop odds tool for the latest odds on any player.

Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals (-120)

The Associated Press corrected and/or clarified the criteria for the award prior to the season. The AP stated the "spirit of the AP Comeback Player of the Year is to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury, or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season."

We live in a society with rules, and that in theory also applies to handing out the NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award. And between the two primary contenders, Burrow is the only one who needed to come back from an injury.

Although his wrist injury last season cost him time, Burrow still appeared in 10 games last season. He then participated in most of the team's OTAs during the offseason.

It's an injury that was largely forgotten about by the time training camp rolled around, which is why if we're quite rightfully seeking a way to honor Burrow for his standout season - 4,918 passing yards and an incredible 43 touchdowns with just nine interceptions - moving him further up the NFL MVP odds makes more sense.

However, the dominance of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson serve as obstacles there, along with the Bengals' struggles. So here we sit, entering Sunday of Week 18, with one questionable Comeback Player of the Year Odds leader and a downright puzzling choice right behind him.

Nonetheless, a $10 wager at the -120 odds through BetMGM on Burrow would lead to an $8.33 profit.

Sam Darnold, QB, Vikings (-105)

Darnold can play a significant role in guiding his Vikings to an NFC North crown and the top seed in the conference, in addition to a first-round bye.

That will come to Minnesota with a victory on Sunday Night Football, and it would cap off a stunning resurgent season for Darnold, who's been a key cog in the NFL's ninth-ranked scoring offense and fifth-ranked passing unit.

Darnold has done plenty to begin putting his first-round bust label far behind him. His 8.2 yards per attempt are significantly better than the 6.6 he averaged while with the New York Jets after they drafted him third overall in 2018.

He's also been accurate while pushing the ball downfield, with Darnold's 68.1 completion percentage far above the 59.9 mark from his last season with double-digit starts in 2021.

But the significant problem of criteria remains. What, exactly, is Darnold coming back from? Only a spiral down the depth chart, it seems.

There's no injury tied to him, or any other ailment that required perseverance. A player turning around his career in such a significant fashion, as Darnold may be in the process of doing, certainly deserves our respect and praise. It just doesn't warrant an award. But here we are with Darnold, at least by the odds.

If he climbs ahead of Burrow again on Sunday night and is eventually given the award, a $10 bet at the -105 odds through DraftKings would lead to a $9.52 profit.

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