NFL Coach of the Year Odds Entering Week 18: Can O'Connell Hold on Against Campbell?

There are significant stakes when the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings clash on Sunday night. The marquee game for your NFL Week 18 predictions will determine the winner of the NFC North, and which team gets a first-round bye in the NFC and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

The Sunday Night Football odds show the Lions as the 2.5- or 3-point favorites, and they enter as a front-runner in the Super Bowl odds. Both teams boast juggernaut offenses, too, with the Lions' unit ranking first in points per game (33.3) and the Vikings sitting ninth (24.2).

But there's yet another area in which the two teams are listed next to each other on an oddsboard, and it's tied to the two sideline bosses. Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell holds a substantial lead in the NFL Coach of the Year odds, but his counterpart Dan Campbell led that market for much of the season.

Let's take a closer look at the NFL Coach of the Year odds entering Week 18 as the colossal clash looms on Sunday night.

NFL Coach of the Year odds

Editor's note: All of our best NFL betting sites have now pulled this market, at least for now. Below are the closing odds.

NFL Coach of the Year odds via our best NFL prop betting sites after Week 17. See our NFL player prop odds tool for the latest odds on any player.

Kevin O'Connell, Vikings (-1000)

2024 team record: 14-2

The records of their teams may be identical as the Vikings and Lions lead what's become the NFL's battledome division, with O'Connell and Campbell pacing the sidelines.

But although there are similarities between the two coaches in terms of the impressive results and imposing offenses, the separation lies in the Vikings' unexpected rise, largely due to O'Connell's quarterback-whispering ability.

Minnesota's campaign could have easily been derailed when first-round pick J.J. McCarthy didn't take a single regular-season snap after suffering a preseason knee injury that required surgery. Instead, the Vikings surged with O'Connell helping to revive the career of journeyman quarterback Sam Darnold.

Darnold is on his fourth NFL team after fizzling with the New York Jets as a first-round pick himself. He hadn't started double-digit games since 2021 prior to this year, a season when the passer recorded just nine touchdown tosses and 13 interceptions.

Now he's leading the league's fourth-ranked passing offense while completing 68.1% of his pass attempts and averaging 8.2 yards per throw, a substantial jump from his 6.6 while with the Jets.

Darnold is rightfully a strong contender in the NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds, and O'Connell's ability to adapt and evolve offensively no matter who's under center is a significant factor.

Dan Campbell, Lions (+850)

2024 team record: 14-2

Campbell was the front-runner in this market for a sizable chunk of the season, and he fell back one rung when O'Connell's Vikings kept rising.

The gaping holes in the Lions' defense that have led to repeated shootouts aren't helping Campbell's cause, either. Detroit has allowed 32.5 points per game over the team's last four contests.

The Lions' top-ranked and jet-fueled offense more than balances out that defensive deficiency, though, leading to the club's sparkling record and an 11-game winning streak that's not far in the rearview.

But with fewer statistical arguments to make for coaches, the NFL Coach of the Year Award is often more narrative-based, which is why Campbell is likely set to finish second behind O'Connell.

The Lions sit second in the Super Bowl odds, and that high perch isn't new for them. Expectations were high even during the preseason, as the Lions were fourth on the oddsboard then.

The curse of success with the NFL Coach of the Year Award is that the bar to win it gets higher the more you accumulate victories (see: Andy Reid below). Or even more often, the opportunity to take it at all is eliminated, with voters eyeing someone who has led a comeback or impressive turnaround.

Andy Reid, Chiefs (+1400)

2024 team record: 15-1

Much like Campbell, Reid is a victim of his own success in this market, though he'll surely shrug while collecting Lombardi trophies. His Kansas City Chiefs are gunning for their third straight championship after winning the AFC West for an incredible ninth consecutive year.

Yes, Reid benefits from an all-galaxy talent in Patrick Mahomes being under center, with his quarterback regularly in the NFL MVP odds conversation after winning the award twice. But Reid is also central to the success of a team that's clinched a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs following its seventh season with 12-plus wins under his leadership.

But when you're winning that much regularly and your team began the season getting the shortest Super Bowl odds (around +550), even a potential one-loss campaign isn't enough. Of course, the Chiefs looking less than dominant and playing in 10 one-score games didn't help.

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