Skip to main content

Chiefs vs. Steelers Parlay Picks & Predictions: SGP Odds for Christmas Day

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 24, 2024 9:30 AM EST • 2 min 64 sec read.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes warms up before the game between the Cleveland Browns and the Chiefs as we make our Chiefs vs. Steelers parlay picks.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes warms up before the game between the Cleveland Browns and the Chiefs. Photo by Ken Blaze/Imagn Images.

The Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers kick off the first of two games on Christmas Day, and we've scoured the odds to make our best Chiefs vs. Steelers parlay picks for one of your NFL Week 17 predictions.

  • Kansas City’s 11 one-score wins are tied with the 2022 Vikings for the most in a single season
  • Pittsburgh is 2-3 in its last five games after starting 8-2
  • The Chiefs are 20-1 in their last 21 games

The Chiefs come into this matchup as one of the favorites in the Super Bowl odds. The Chiefs-Steelers tilt, which will be the first NFL game to air on Netflix, begins at 1 p.m. ET on Christmas Day from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh.

Chiefs vs. Steelers parlay predictions: Christmas Day

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Steelers +3.5 (-139) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Patrick Mahomes Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-115) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Pat Freiermuth anytime touchdown (+295) ⭐⭐

Combined odds: | Implied probability: 9.52%

Bet $5, Get $150 + $1K Deposit Bonus

Terms and conditions apply.

Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission. 21+. Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly

SGP predictions for Chiefs vs. Steelers

Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Steelers +3.5 (-139) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Given that we included a leg to this parlay that brings the odds to an appealing +950, let's go somewhat chalky with this wager that takes advantage of an alternate spread.

Pittsburgh’s offense should be getting a much-needed jolt with the return of George Pickens, as Russell Wilson is averaging just 167.7 passing yards per game in the last three contests without him.

I would not put anyone off waiting until closer to kickoff to see if the primary line gets to +3.5 on its own in the NFL Week 17 odds (I would then look for alternate spreads of +4 or +4.5). The spread has already moved away from the Steelers from +2.5 to +3.

I was even more aggressive in my NFL upset picks while siding with the Steelers to shock Kansas City.

Patrick Mahomes Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

This is the contrarian part of our three-leg parlay, as Mahomes torched the Steelers for five passing touchdowns in a 2022 playoff game. That was the most passing touchdowns in a postseason game during Steelers franchise history.

Pittsburgh has allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns since Week 10. However, the team has faced Joe Burrow, the gun-slinging Jameis Winston, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson over that span. 

Mahomes has logged 15 touchdown passes in his last eight games. However, he should experience some negative regression, as the signal-caller is only averaged 6.1 yards per attempt and a 0.1% completion percentage over expectancy.

Pat Freiermuth anytime touchdown (+295) ⭐⭐

Pat Freiermuth's three-game touchdown streak was snapped last week, but he still caught all three of his targets against the Ravens.

George Pickens being healthy will take away some defensive attention from Freiermuth in the red zone. He should be in for a significant day against a Chiefs defense allowing the most receiving yards per game to tight ends.

I also backed Freiermuth in my Chiefs vs. Steelers prediction for the same reason.

The Chiefs have allowed at least one receiving score to a tight end in two of the last four games. 

Steelers running back Najee Harris has scored a touchdown just twice in the last six games, so Freiermuth shouldn't be the fifth Steelers player down on the anytime touchdown oddsboard.

Chiefs vs. Steelers odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Chiefs vs. Steelers game info

  • When: Wednesday, Dec. 25
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET 
  • Where: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh, Pa.)
  • How to watch: Netflix
  • Weather: 38 degrees, 25% chance of precipitation, wind 6-mph ENE
  • Favorite: Chiefs -3 ()

NFL betting odds pages

Here are our best NFL betting sites:

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.

Related pages

Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”