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Chiefs vs. Steelers Prediction, Picks & Best Bets: Christmas Day

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 24, 2024 8:27 AM EST • 3 min 45 sec read.

There's a lot to play for when both the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers take the field for the third time in 11 days during the first of two Christmas Day matchups around the NFL.

  • The Chiefs, who enter as one of the Super Bowl odds front-runners, won their 14th game last week, and their 11th by one possession
  • Kansas City would clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a win
  • Pittsburgh is deadlocked with Baltimore atop the AFC North standings, but the team still controls its own destiny for the division title

Our Chiefs vs. Steelers prediction banks on the return of George Pickens making a significant difference for the Pittsburgh offense.

Kansas City is a 2.5 or 3-point road favorite. Kickoff from Acrisure Stadium is set for 1 p.m. ET, and it'll be the first NFL game to air live on Netflix.

Chiefs vs. Steelers predictions: Christmas Day

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Steelers +3 () vs. Chiefs ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • My best pick: Pat Freiermuth Over 28.5 receiving yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Chiefs vs. Steelers ATS prediction: Week 17

Steelers to cover the spread: +3 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%

Pickens can provide a boost

This wager on Pittsburgh’s point spread heavily rests on the Steelers getting back a healthy George Pickens, as the wide receiver has missed the last three games with a hamstring injury. He was upgraded to a full practice participant on Monday.

Russell Wilson posted drastic splits with Pickens on and off the field entering last week's game against Baltimore. Wilson produced a 67 QBR on 195 dropbacks with Pickens on the field, averaging 7.9 air yards per attempt with 29 completions for 20-plus yards.

With Pickens off the field, Wilson had dropped back 70 times while producing a 32 QBR. He also averaged 6.3 air yards per attempt with six 20-plus-yard completions.

Pickens tallied 14 catches for 474 yards on deep targets over the first 15 weeks, with the rest of the Steelers notching nine such catches for 276 yards combined.

Getting Pickens back healthy is a necessity to raise Pittsburgh’s offensive ceiling. 

Chiefs’ non-explosive offense will catch up to them

The Chiefs registered bizarre offensive numbers entering last week that contributed to their overall success. 

Kansas City had recorded an NFL-best 39 drives with 10-plus plays, including four such drives against Houston in Week 16. However, the Chiefs only tallied 41 scrimmage plays for 20-plus yards (and three last week), which ranked 26th in the league. 

I don't expect the Chiefs to dink and dunk their way to offensive success against a Steelers defense that came into last week ranked in the top five in yards per carry allowed to running backs (3.94).

Back Tomlin as an underdog

Head coach Mike Tomlin’s track record as an underdog suggests the Steelers will turn things around.

When Tomlin’s teams are underdogs after a straight-up loss, the Steelers have covered 67% of the time (24-12 against the spread). And that cover percentage is still a respectable 64% (10-4 ATS) against non-divisional opponents in that split.

Caesars is alone among our NFL prop betting sites while offering the key number of three at standard -110 juice. Backing Pittsburgh at +3 is vital, as the Chiefs have won five games by three or fewer points.

I went a step further in my NFL upset picks while taking the Steelers to surprise Kansas City for one of your NFL week 17 predictions.

Chiefs vs. Steelers best pick

Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Pat Freiermuth Over 28.5 receiving yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -113 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.05%

Pat Freiermuth entered last week after scoring a touchdown in three straight games, but then he was rather quiet. The positive news for his outlook this week is that he did catch all three of his targets, and Kansas City has been vulnerable to tight ends.

Kansas City had allowed the second-highest yards per target to tight ends (9.1) and a top-five highest catch rate (77.4%) to the position entering Week 16. And Pickens likely returning should take away more defensive attention from Freiermuth.

The veteran has averaged five receptions for 63.5 yards in the last two games he's played with Pickens healthy. This is therefore a confident four-star play in a favorable matchup if Pickens suits up.

All the top NFL parlay betting sites opened with an O/U of 30.5, and now I'm heading to FanDuel for the slightly better number of 28.5. A $10 winning wager through FanDuel’s -113 odds would pay out $18.85.

Chiefs vs. Steelers odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Chiefs vs. Steelers live odds

Chiefs vs. Steelers opening odds:

  • Chiefs: -4 ()
  • Steelers: +4 (-110 via BetMGM)

Chiefs vs. Steelers injuries

Chiefs vs. Steelers game info

  • When: Wednesday, Dec. 25
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET 
  • Where: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh, Pa.)
  • How to watch: Netflix
  • Weather: 38 degrees, 25% chance of precipitation, wind 6-mph E
  • Favorite: Chiefs -3 (-105 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”