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Chiefs vs. Steelers Player Prop Picks & Touchdown Prediction: Christmas Day

Philip Wood

Last Updated: December 25, 2024 7:16 AM EST • 3 min 52 sec read.

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins celebrates a catch against the Houston Texans, and we offer our best Chiefs vs. Steelers player prop picks.
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins celebrates a catch against the Houston Texans. Photo by Denny Medley via Imagn Images.

The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Kansas City Chiefs in a special Christmas Day meeting, kicking off Wednesday's action at 1 p.m. ET (Netflix).

I make the best Chiefs vs. Steelers player prop picks, as these two AFC playoff-bound teams prepare for this game on Christmas Day in Pittsburgh.

The 14-1 Chiefs are favored by 2.5 or 3 at our best sports betting sites, as Patrick Mahomes and Co. look to win their sixth consecutive game. However, we're riding with the underdogs to cover as part of our Chiefs vs. Steelers prediction.

The Steelers have lost two games in a row, as Russell Wilson and the offense have gone cold, scoring fewer than 20 points in back-to-back games. Will the offense get it together this week?

We look at this game and Ravens vs. Texans as part of our NFL Christmas Day predictions.

Chiefs vs. Steelers NFL player prop picks: Christmas Day

Odds as of Tuesday and subject to change.

  • DeAndre Hopkins touchdown prediction: Anytime touchdown scorer () ⭐⭐⭐
  • Najee Harris Under 43.5 rushing yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Pat Freiermuth Over 28.5 receiving yards (-113 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

NFL picks made Tuesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Chiefs vs. Steelers touchdown prediction

DeAndre Hopkins anytime touchdown scorer (+290) ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +290 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 25.64%

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After scoring four touchdowns in his first seven games with the Chiefs, Hopkins has gone back-to-back weeks without finding the end zone. What’s more alarming is that Hopkins hasn’t been all that integral to the offense, going for fewer than 40 yards in three consecutive games.

However, this week he gets an excellent matchup against a Steelers defense that is suddenly struggling to keep opponents out of the end zone through the air.

Though they’re allowing only 1.3 passing touchdowns per game, the Steelers are allowing 2.3 over their last three contests, and Lamar Jackson threw three last week.

Despite playing only nine games with the Chiefs, Hopkins has just one fewer touchdown than Xavier Worthy and Noah Gray, who lead the team in touchdown receptions.

To get this at +290 in a favorable matchup provides a lot of value, especially since DraftKings is offering +260 and Caesars is asking +235.

NFL Christmas Day expert picks

Best Chiefs vs. Steelers prop picks

Najee Harris Under 43.5 rushing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Harris has run for 42 or fewer yards in the five Steelers losses this season. Last week, he carried the ball just nine times, and in his last two games, he has only 15 combined attempts.

While the Steelers could win this game, Harris has also struggled in recent wins, averaging 3.5 yards per carry or less in five of his last seven games.

Additionally, the Chiefs have one of the best run defenses in football. They’re allowing just 91.4 rushing yards per game, which ranks third in the league. Teams are averaging just 4.0 yards per carry, which is the fourth-fewest yards per attempt allowed in the league.

All of our best sports betting apps have this total set at 43.5. The best price is at bet365, but keep an eye out in case the price becomes more favorable at another sportsbook.

Pat Freiermuth Over 28.5 receiving yards (-113) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -113 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.05%

The Chiefs continue to be the worst team in the NFL at defending tight ends. They’ve given up 1,090 yards to the position this season, 73 more than any other team.

Last week, Dalton Schultz caught five passes for 45 yards and a touchdown. It was the fourth-most receiving yards he’s achieved this season.

Freiermuth has been quiet in back-to-back games, but he does have at least three catches in his last five contests. Additionally, he’s topped 28.5 yards in seven games this season. 

All of our best sportsbooks have his total set at 29.5 except for FanDuel. Though FanDuel isn’t offering the best price, the nominal difference is worth the extra yard.

 Chiefs vs. Steelers odds

Chiefs vs. Steelers game info

  • When: Wednesday, Dec. 25
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • Where: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh)
  • How to watch: Netflix
  • Weather: 41 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 4 mph E
  • Favorite: Chiefs -3 (+100 via bet365)

NFL betting odds pages

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.