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Chiefs vs. Jets Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 4: Sunday Night Football

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 1, 2023 4:00 PM EDT • 3 min 45 sec read.

The absence of Aaron Rodgers may have dimmed the excitement for this Sunday Night Football clash between the Kansas City Chiefs and New York Jets, but fear not – we've got you covered with our Chiefs vs. Jets predictions for Sunday Night Football, relying on the best NFL odds available.

Kansas City defeated the Chicago Bears 41-10 last week, marking the ninth win by 30-plus points in Andy Reid’s 11 seasons as head coach. With this victory, Reid surpassed Tom Landry for sole possession of fourth place on the all-time wins list, including playoffs.

New York lost its 15th consecutive game to the New England Patriots and fell to 0-5 against Mac Jones in his time as New England’s starting quarterback. Jets quarterback Zach Wilson is under much scrutiny from the New York media this week after losing five consecutive starts and averaging 8.6 points per game in those losses.

Here is our best Chiefs vs. Jets prediction for Sunday Night Football (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Chiefs vs. Jets prediction: Sunday Night Football

Under 42.5 () ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Not many people are talking about the Chiefs’ offensive woes from the first two weeks (without tight end Travis Kelce in Week 1), as they scored more points in Week 3 (41) than in the first two games combined. Kansas City totaled an NFL-high 31 first downs last week and scored on all but one of their first-half possessions.

However, we're not about to declare that Kansas City's issues are solved, namely the lack of a big-play wide receiver, as the Bears allowed 25 or more points in an NFL record 13 consecutive matchups. While the Chiefs got four rushing touchdowns last week, let’s not forget none of their running backs found the endzone in either of the first two contests against better defenses.

New York has three offensive TDs this season and scored 22 or fewer points in nine consecutive games for the first time since 1984-85. If you thought Wilson was bad before, his 27 QBR and 38.0% on-target percentage are worse than in 2021 and 2022. In addition, his 52.4% completion percentage is an NFL-worst, and he has 16 touchdowns against 21 interceptions and an 8-16 record in 24 career starts.

The Jets don't have a way to score points against Kansas City’s fourth-ranked scoring defense, especially with an offensive line that played with three players outside of their natural positions and allowed pressure on 44% of dropbacks in Week 3 (an NFL most).

Wilson has the lowest passer rating of any QB with 20-plus starts since 2010, Per .  If you think Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett will devise a plan to get wideout Garrett Wilson more involved, know Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie has PFF’s top coverage grade among backs with 75 or more coverage snaps this season and allowed zero TDs and an opposing passer rating of 73.9 when targeted.

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Chiefs vs. Jets best odds

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
42.542.542.542.542.5
Over (-110)/Under (-110)Over (-110)/Under (-110)Over (-110)/Under (-110)Over (-110)/Under (-110)Over (-110)/Under (-110)

Bettors looking to get involved with the total have nothing to sift through regarding differences among our best sports betting apps, as all agree with a 42.5 Over/Under and standard -110 juice on both. The Under is 9-0 in New York’s last nine games against AFC opponents.

Chiefs vs. Jets odds for Sunday Night Football

Chiefs vs. Jets odds analysis

The total was as high as 43.5 Sunday night after the Week 3 games played out, but Under backers drove the line down.  reached a low of 41.5 on Monday night (down from an opening total of 43), but Over backers thought that number was too low and pushed it back up a point. There's been solid two-way action on the total, as 53% of the wagers are on the Over.

Much like the total, all of our best sports betting sites agree with the 9.5-point spread. The Chiefs opened as 8.5-point favorites at Sunday night, but other competitors like , DraftKings, and  opened at -9, though all offer the same number now. The early betting splits are 2/1 in KC's favor. 

Sunday Night Football game info

  • When: Sunday, Oct. 1 at 8:20 p.m. ET
  • Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
  • How to watch: NBC
  • Weather: 58 degrees, 10% chance of precipitation, 5-mph N wind

Chiefs-Jets prediction made 9/26/23 at 8:38 p.m. ET

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”