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Chiefs vs. Chargers Player Prop Bet Odds & Touchdown Picks: Mahomes Set for Best Game

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 28, 2024 8:00 AM EDT • 3 min 57 sec read.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) calls signals as we offer our best Chief vs. Chargers player prop bets for NFL Week 4.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) calls signals against the Atlanta Falcons. Photo by Dale Zanine / Imagn Images.

First place is on the line in the AFC West as the Los Angeles Chargers (2-1) host the Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) in Sunday's 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff at SoFi Stadium.

  • Patrick Mahomes, an NFL MVP odds contender, broke the record for most wins (77) in the first 100 career starts among all quarterbacks since 1950
  • Justin Herbert is questionable with an ankle sprain
  • The Chargers are dealing with injuries and suspensions at several other key positions ahead of next week’s bye week

Our Chiefs vs. Chargers player props call for Mahomes to break out of a slump as part of our NFL Week 4 predictions.

Chiefs vs. Chargers NFL player prop bets: Sunday

Odds as of Sunday and subject to change.

  • Rashee Rice anytime touchdown scorer () ⭐⭐⭐
  • Patrick Mahomes Over 251.5 passing yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Carson Steele Under 40.5 rushing yards () ⭐⭐⭐

NFL picks made Sunday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Chiefs vs. Chargers touchdown pick

Rashee Rice anytime touchdown scorer (+130) ⭐⭐⭐

Rice has benefitted from teammate Travis Kelce’s slow start to the season, as he entered the week ranked first in the NFL in catches (24) and targets (29).

The second-year wideout was peppered with 14 targets in last week’s win over Atlanta, hauling in 12 of those for a season-high 110 yards. He now has at least 103 receiving yards or a touchdown in every game this season, and he's scored a touchdown in four of his last six regular-season games.

Rice’s ceiling is even higher now that three-time Pro Bowl safety Derwin James has been suspended for this game for what the league is calling "repeated violations of playing rules intended to protect the health and safety of players.”

The +130 odds at DraftKings trump the +125 anytime touchdown odds at Caesars, so I am laying down my $10 wager there with the hopes of returning $13 in profits.

Best odds: +130 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 43.48%

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Best Chiefs vs. Chargers prop bets

Patrick Mahomes Over 251.5 passing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

It is scary to think that the Chiefs are 3-0 and we have not even seen the best version of Mahomes, who has gone under 300 passing yards in five consecutive games dating back to last season.

Mahomes’ 48 Total QBR, 5.0 air yards per attempt, 659 passing yards, and five passing touchdowns are all his career worst through the first three games of a season. In fact, this is the first time Mahomes has posted a QBR under 70 through his team’s first three games.

However, Los Angeles has allowed 245 or more yards passing to both Gardner Minshew and Justin Fields, so Mahomes should fill up the stat sheet.

Conventional wisdom would say the Chargers should rank atop the league in time of possession given that they are the AFC’s second-best rushing team. Instead, they have lost the time of possession battle twice in three weeks and are coming off allowing a season-high 65 plays and 20 first downs to the Steelers.

All of our best NFL prop betting sites are in unison with the O/U of 251.5 passing yards, but only one is charging less than -115 in juice to back the Over.

A $10 winning wager at these -110 odds via bet365 would pay out $19.09.

Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Carson Steele Under 40.5 rushing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Our best NFL betting sites may know something we don’t, as DraftKings has Steele’s O/U for rushing attempts set at 5.5 despite him getting 77% of the rushing snaps and an overall 64% snap rate last week.

Perhaps the recent Kareem Hunt signing will immediately eat into Steele’s workload. Either way, Los Angeles allows the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game and ranks in the top two in rushing success rate allowed, making this a tricky matchup. 

The implied probability for Steele to go Under this projected rushing total is as high as 53.49% based on the -115 odds at DraftKings and Caesars.

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Chiefs vs. Chargers game info

  • When: Sunday, Sept. 29
  • Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET 
  • Where: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, Calif.)
  • How to watch: CBS
  • Weather: Indoors
  • Favorite: Chiefs -7 (-115 via BetMGM)

NFL betting odds pages

Here are our best NFL betting sites:

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”