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Chiefs vs. Chargers Picks, Predictions Week 11: Can L.A. Make a Move in the AFC West Race?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 1, 0001 12:00 AM EST • 2 min 19 sec read.

This week’s Sunday Night Football matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers goes a long way to determine the AFC West champion. Read on for our Chiefs-Chargers picks.

The 7-2 Chiefs enter this contest with a two-game lead over the 5-4 Chargers. With a 27-24 home victory over L.A. already in hand, the AFC West race could be over if Kansas City wins this week. KC's lead would be four games with seven to play, given the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Chiefs enter on a two-game winning streak, and as the only two-loss AFC team, they control their own destiny for the No. 1 playoff seed.

Here are our Chiefs-Chargers Week 11 NFL picks (odds via PointsBet, BetMGM, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Chiefs vs. Chargers Game Info

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 20, 8:20 p.m. ET
  • TV: NBC
  • Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
  • Weather: 76 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 7-mph NW wind

Chiefs vs. Chargers Odds

Chiefs vs. Chargers Odds Analysis

The Chiefs opened as high as -6.5 point favorites earlier this week but have since been bet down as low as -4.5 at some sportsbooks. Sharp action is on the Chargers, who attracted 40% of the tickets but 67% of the cash.

The total moved just as much as the point spread in most cases, rising from an opening number of 50 to as high as 52 at various outlets. The Over dominated the betting splits, attracting 84% of the tickets and 96% of the handle. 

Chiefs vs. Chargers Picks

  • Spread: Chargers +5.5 (-110 via BetMGM) 
  • Over/Under: Under 52 (-107 via PointsBet) 
  • Player prop: Travis Kelce anytime touchdown scorer (-140 via DraftKings) 

Chiefs vs. Chargers ATS Pick

Chargers +5.5 (-110) ★★★

While Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is a perfect 13-0 SU in road games against AFC West opponents and covered the spread in nine of those matchups, laying anything more than a field goal seems too much against a team that played Kansas City tough in recent years. Chargers QB Justin Herbert covered the spread in three of four games he started against KC, including a +9 points in his only career contest as a bigger home underdog than this week.

Kansas City’s 27-17 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars is impressive, considering it was the Jags’ first double-digit loss. However, L.A. is the healthiest it's been in recent weeks, with wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams returning. With Allen and Williams both on the field since 2021, Herbert’s QBR is 77, and he averages 7.4 yards per attempt. With both of them out, Herbert’s QBR drops to 67, and his yards per attempt plummets to 6.1.

Chiefs vs. Chargers O/U Pick

Under 52 (-107) ★★

While Mahomes leads the league with 25 touchdown passes, he could be down two of his best weapons. Wideouts JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion protocol) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (illness) are both questionable. In addition, despite Allen and Williams’ potential returns and what that does for L.A.'s passing attack, it's unfair to assume they'll each get their normal amount of snaps or both be 100% effective immediately upon return.

The Under cashed in eight of 10 Sunday Night Football games this year. Expect another lower-scoring contest in this matchup. 

Chiefs vs. Chargers Prop Pick

Kelce anytime touchdown scorer (-140) ★★★

The Chiefs lead the league with 10 players receiving TDs, an NFL most. However, while Mahomes spread the ball out a ton this year, WR Travis Kelce is always his safety net, with eight receiving touchdowns tied for the league lead. If KC is without Smith-Schuster and Valdes-Scantling, look for Kelce to get even more than the seven targets (a season-low) he saw in the first matchup against the Chargers.

Where to Bet on Chiefs vs. Chargers Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

Chiefs-Chargers picks made 11/19/2022 at 7:11 a.m. ET

Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”