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Chargers vs. Texans Early Picks, Predictions & Odds for Wild Card Weekend

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: January 6, 2025 11:21 AM EST • 3 min 1 sec read.

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert against the Las Vegas Raiders as we offer our Chargers vs. Texans early picks.
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert makes a pass attempt under pressure from Las Vegas Raiders defensive tackle John Jenkins. Photo by Stephen R. Sylvanie via Imagn Images

Let the dogfight to get to Super Bowl 59 begin as the Los Angeles Chargers head to NRG Stadium to play the Houston Texans as the 3-point road favorites via the NFL Wild Card Weekend odds. 

While the Chargers won their last three regular-season games, only one came against a playoff-bound team (Denver Broncos). That said, Jim Harbaugh's team was 7-2 against the spread on the road this season, allowed the fewest points per game (17.7), and had the fifth-best defense overall via PFF. 

The Texans, meanwhile, scored more than 20 points just once in the last four games, which came against the Tennessee Titans in a meaningless Week 18 contest.

Our Chargers vs. Texans early picks back Los Angeles to put on a defensive clinic and cover in Houston when the action gets underway at 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday (CBS).

My early Chargers vs. Texans prediction: Chargers -3

NFL picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Prediction: Chargers -3

Best odds: | Implied probability: 50.98%

The Chargers offer a nightmare matchup for Houston, which will be without wideouts Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs. Houston's recent inability to score points is compounded by facing the league's best-scoring defense. The Texans averaged 11 points in their last two games at NRG Stadium and just 16 per contest in the previous four. 

Los Angeles allowed more than 20 points in four games during the regular season and has the fourth-ranked coverage unit, according to PFF. In addition, the Chargers tied the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in accumulating the sixth-most sacks (46), while C.J. Stroud was sacked 52 times, the second most.  

That porous Texans' offensive line also gives the visitors the advantage at quarterback, as Stroud's accuracy has been negatively impacted by his lack of time in the pocket. He connected on just 57% of his passes in Weeks 16 and 17. 

Meanwhile, Justin Herbert was superb down the stretch, tossing 10 touchdown passes and just two picks while averaging 263.8 passing yards in the last five games. 

And Houston struggled against playoff-bound teams, winning only one of six. Our best sportsbooks have the Chargers at -3, with FanDuel offering the best price. A winning $10 bet will profit $9.62. 

Don't miss our guide for how to bet on NFL or this week's best sportsbook promos.

Chargers vs. Texans live odds

See the NFL odds from our best NFL betting sites for every Wild Card Weekend game.

Moneyline

  • Chargers best odds: -155 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 60.78%
  • Texans best odds: +140 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 41.67%

BetMGM is the place to lock in your wager if you're backing the Texans. DraftKings offers the worst price (+130) as it provides the best value for backing the Chargers. 

Spread

  • Chargers best odds: -3 (-104) via FanDuel
  • Texans best odds: +3 (+118) via FanDuel

FanDuel was the last of our best sports betting apps to fall in line at -3. It held on at -2.5 for a while before aligning with the other sports betting sites. FanDuel offers the best price on both teams, with BetMGM offering the worst price (-110) on the Chargers. Meanwhile, the worst value for the Texans is -115 at bet365 and Caesars. 

The spread might increase to -3.5, but I can't see it getting any larger than an additional half-point. 

Over/Under

  • Over best odds: 43 (-110) via BetMGM
  • Under best odds: 46 (-110) via Caesars

Most of our NFL betting sites have the total set at 43.5. However, BetMGM offers 43, so you'll want to lock in your pick there if you're an Over backer. Caesars offers a total of 46, the high-end outlier. I'd suggest jumping on the Under at Caesars, as that outlier number should decrease in the lead-up to kickoff.

Chargers vs. Texans injuries to watch

How to watch Chargers vs. Texans

  • When: Saturday, Jan. 11
  • Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: NRG Stadium (Houston)
  • How to watch: CBS
  • Weather: Indoors
  • Favorite: Chargers -3 (-104 via FanDuel)

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Written By:
Gary Pearson
Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.