Chargers vs. Patriots Player Prop Picks & Touchdown Prediction: Saturday

Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers look to secure a postseason berth with a win over the New England Patriots. The Chargers are getting highly favorable NFL playoff odds.

Despite forecasted rainy conditions, my best Chargers vs. Patriots player prop picks for Saturday’s 1 p.m. ET (NFL Network) game in Foxborough are Overs. While the Chargers boast one of the best defenses in football, they’ve given up 67 points over the last two weeks, and Los Angeles is taking on a team that's scored 21-plus points in two of its last three outings.

The Chargers are the 4.5-point favorites, but they’ll be without Gus Edwards, and J.K. Dobbins is listed as questionable. What do these injuries mean for Herbert and the passing attack?

Chargers vs. Patriots NFL player prop picks: Saturday

Odds as of Thursday and subject to change.

• Quentin Johnston touchdown prediction: Anytime touchdown scorer () ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Rhamondre Stevenson Over 42.5 rushing yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Justin Herbert Over 231.5 passing yards () ⭐⭐⭐

NFL picks made Thursday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Chargers vs. Patriots touchdown prediction

Quentin Johnston anytime touchdown scorer (+255) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +255 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 28.17%

Johnston leads the Chargers in touchdown receptions this season after hauling in eight. While Ladd McConkey is getting shorter odds to score in this game, Johnston has notched three more touchdowns than him, and he's caught a touchdown pass in two of his last three matchups.

The Patriots are allowing 1.5 passing touchdowns per contest this season. That’s tied for 18th leaguewide. Justin Herbert has thrown multiple touchdown passes in consecutive weeks, too. The Patriots have been struggling against the run lately, but the backfield situation for the Chargers this week is worrisome.

Johnston has been an end-zone threat for this team all year. That won’t change in a favorable matchup.

Three of our best sports betting sites are offering this prop, with DraftKings featuring easily the best price. The next best odds available for one of your NFL Week 17 predictions are the +230 at FanDuel.

Best Chargers vs. Patriots prop picks

Rhamondre Stevenson Over 42.5 rushing yards (-113) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -113 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.05%

Stevenson has rushed for at least 60 yards in three consecutive games and five of his last six. It makes sense to be worried about his outlook with the Patriots as underdogs, but four of those five 60-plus-yard games came in losses.

While the Chargers field one of the league's best scoring defenses, they don’t defend the run particularly well. They rank 18th in rushing yards allowed while giving up 124.1 per game. Stevenson could produce a huge game if the Patriots can keep this contest close, as the Chargers are allowing 4.7 yards per carry, the sixth-most in the NFL.

Four of the five best sportsbooks are setting this total set at 44.5. While the bet365 price of -110 for the Over is the best available, I’ll take two extra yards for slightly worse odds at FanDuel.

Justin Herbert Over 231.5 passing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%

The Chargers’ backfield is a mess entering Week 17. Edwards is out, and Dobbins is questionable after missing four games with a knee injury. Even if Dobbins does play, I don’t expect him to get many touches, with the Chargers looking to ensure he’s at his best for the postseason.

With the backfield depleted, the offense will fall squarely on the shoulders and arm of Herbert, who threw for 284 yards last week. That performance ended a streak of four consecutive games with fewer than 220 passing yards.

The Patriots are allowing just 212.4 passing yards per game, and they just held Josh Allen to 154. On the surface this feels like an easy Under considering how Herbert has been playing lately. But when you look deeper, it’s clear that Herbert is in line for more than he usually gets. Don’t fall for the trap.

Chargers vs. Patriots game info

• When: Saturday, Dec. 28
• Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
• Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
• How to watch: NFL Network
• Weather: 42 degrees, 83% chance of precipitation, win 5 mph S
• Favorite: Chargers -4.5 (-105 via FanDuel)

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