Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Prediction Tonight: Sunday Night Football Odds & SNF Picks

The NFL Week 16 schedule rolls on tonight as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6) look to retake the NFC South lead when they face the Dallas Cowboys (6-8) for a Sunday Night football kickoff at 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC) at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

The latest Sunday Night Football odds have Tampa Bay favored by four points after winning four straight entering Week 16, though our Buccaneers vs. Cowboys prediction expects the underdogs to show some fight tonight at home to keep their NFL playoffs odds alive.

To see how this game changed throughout the week, check out our Buccaneers vs. Cowboys early picks as part of our NFL Week 16 predictions.

Best Buccaneers vs. Cowboys picks

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

• Against the spread pick: Cowboys +4 () vs. Buccaneers ⭐⭐⭐
• Player prop: Cooper Rush Over 1.5 passing touchdowns () ⭐⭐⭐

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys odds movement: Sunday Night Football

The Buccaneers opened as favorites between 3.5 and 4.5 points earlier this week, and we've seen the point spread settle at 4 in the hours before kickoff tonight.

That comes even with over 70% of the spread tickets written toward the Buccaneers, which suggests those with a sharper view are backing the 'Boys at home to keep their season alive. That's where we lean, too, in our Buccaneers vs. Cowboys prediction for this NFC clash in prime time.

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys against the spread prediction: Sunday Night Football

Cowboys to cover the spread: +4 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Cowboys’ defensive resurgence?

Dallas faces a red-hot Tampa Bay offense that has scored 26 or more points in four consecutive games. Most would deem that problematic, especially for a defense that has allowed 12.5 more points per game at home than on the road.

But the Cowboys have played much better on defense of late. They held a high-powered Bengals offense to just 20 points before their late-game special teams blunder set Cincinnati up in good field position.

Over the last two games, Dallas has held Cincinnati and Carolina to a combined 134 yards rushing and each team had 3.9 yards per carry or fewer. 

That is important when facing a Buccaneers team that outrushed the Chargers 222-32 last week, with Bucky Irving rushing for 100-plus yards in two of the last three games.

Dallas is forcing turnovers again

Under Dan Quinn, Dallas forced an NFL-best 93 turnovers from 2021-23. It got off to a slow start in that department this season with five takeaways in the first seven games while adjusting to Mike Zimmer’s new scheme. 

However, the Cowboys now have averaged two takeaways per game over the last seven games and have at least one interception in six straight. 

Fade Mayfield in prime time

Baker Mayfield is 0-8 SU in his last eight prime-time starts since 2021. And though I'm not necessarily backing the Cowboys to win outright, there has to soon be some regression from the fact that road favorites went 7-0 SU last week and have won 14 of the last 15.

The best number and price to back the home underdogs is at BetMGM. FanDuel is a half-point lower than its competitors at +3.5, while BetMGM is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering the standard -110 juice (compared to the -112 juice or higher elsewhere).

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys player prop

Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Cooper Rush Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+130) ⭐⭐⭐

I am riding the rush (no pun intended) that Cooper Rush is on, as bet365 offers very generous +130 odds for rush to throw multiple touchdown passes for the fourth time in the last five games.

Rush has an 8-1 TD-INT ratio over the last four games and faces a Buccaneers defense that allows the fourth-most passing yards this season. Rush should also get comfortable in the pocket against a defense that has the seventh-fewest interceptions.

This game has shootout potential with the Cowboys' defense allowing the second-most receptions to wide receivers over the last four weeks. Thus, I expect Rush to throw more than usual, especially if the Cowboys need to keep pace with the high-scoring Buccaneers.

Rush has as low as +116 odds at Caesars (carrying a 46.30% implied probability) to throw for multiple touchdowns. So I am headed to bet365 for the best value, where a winning $10 wager would net $13 in profits.

Best odds: +130 via bet365 | Implied probability: 43.48%

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys injuries

Sunday Night Football game info

• Matchup: Buccaneers vs. Cowboys
• Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET 
• Where: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
• How to watch: NBC/Peacock
• Weather: Indoors

NFL betting odds pages

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• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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