Browns vs. Bills Picks, Predictions Week 11: Bills Mafia Headed to Detroit
Last Updated: November 20, 2022 3:36 AM EST • 2 min 25 sec read.
Could the Buffalo Bills win as many games at Ford Field this season as the Detroit Lions? Find out with our Browns-Bills picks.
We were robbed of a thundersnow game when the NFL relocated the Bills game against the Cleveland Browns from Buffalo to Ford Field in Detroit. The relocation will certainly cost the Bills a lot of money, but unlike them, we are here to make money in Week 11.
Here are our best picks and predictions for the Week 11 matchup between the Browns and Bills (odds via PointsBet, FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top picks for Week 11.
Browns vs. Bills Game Info
Date: Sunday, Nov. 20, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Weather: Dome
Browns vs. Bills Odds
Browns vs. Bills Odds Analysis
The Bills are ranging from -7.5 to -8.5 favorites at a number of sportsbooks. Their loss of home-field advantage altered the number.
The total ranges from 49.5 to 50. Prior to the move to Ford Field, the Over/Under had dropped all the way to 41 with forecasts calling for six feet of snow in Buffalo.
Browns vs. Bills Picks
Browns vs. Bills ATS Pick
Browns +8.5 (-115) ★★★★
Considering Buffalo has been dealing with practices over zoom and the relocation of their team for a game they thought was going to be played at home, I prefer the Browns in this matchup. In addition to losing home field advantage, don't be surprised if there are more Browns fans at Ford Field on Sunday than Bills fans.
Since I only make the Bills a 7-point favorite over the Browns on a neutral field, I am taking Nick Chubb and the Browns on FanDuel at Browns +8.5 (-115). As I believe Browns +7.5 might become a consensus line, I would jump on this number quickly.
The best price is offered by FanDuel on this line, as you are getting a full point more than you would at other sportsbooks while only paying five cents in juice.
Browns vs. Bills O/U Pick
Under 49.5 (-107) ★★★
With everyone pounding the Under when the game was slated to take place in a blizzard in Buffalo, I think the immediate thought is to play the Over since it has been moved to a dome. Not so fast, I have a different opinion about this number.
A major mismatch between the Bills offense and Browns defense would lead to most of the points. There is a problem here in that the Bills offense has been working on a game plan to play in the wind and snow all week. That can be thrown away, but the real problem now is that the Bills were forced to cancel practice due to snow right after the game plan was altered.
I have this total at 49, so a slight edge to the Under, but I believe some of the external factors that I discussed above make the edge even greater. All the sportsbooks are trading at 49.5, but PointsBet has the 14-cent line (-107), the best price for this total.
Browns vs. Bills Prop Pick
Peoples-Jones anytime touchdown (+255) ★★★
Browns quarterback Jacoby Brissett has made wideout Donovan Peoples-Jones one of his favorite targets as the season has progressed. Despite having more than 70 yards receiving in each of his last four games, Peoples-Jones has failed to find the end zone in any of those games.
All of that changes this week as the Detroit native and former Michigan Wolverine will have the opportunity to have a homecoming game with the relocation to Ford Field. It's only a matter of time before someone with the usage of Peoples-Jones scores a touchdown, and I believe you're getting a nice price at +255.
Where to Bet on Browns-Bills Picks
Browns-Bills picks made 11/18/2022 at 8:30 a.m. ET
Jon Metler