Skip to main content

Broncos vs. Saints TNF Prop Bets, Odds: Thursday Night Football

Andrew Brennan

Last Updated: October 17, 2024 9:43 AM EDT • 4 min 43 sec read.

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara runs the ball against the Kansas City Chiefs.
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara runs the ball against the Kansas City Chiefs. Photo by Jay Biggerstaff via Imagn Images.

Sean Payton returns to New Orleans following his retirement in January 2022, and subsequent unretirement in February 2023. His Denver Broncos will look to bounce back as 2.5-point favorites following a home loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, while the reeling Saints just try to not get booed off their own field.

As expected, both teams are deep long shots by the Super Bowl odds.

New Orleans is just a +2.5 underdog by the Thursday Night Football odds following an embarrassing defeat on Sunday. Just when it seemed the Saints had battled their way back into the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they allowed 27 straight points to lose 51-27.

Meanwhile, the Broncos continue to play a style of football dryer than the Sahara.

Rookie quarterback Bo Nix is ... fine, I guess. Javonte Williams continues to perform poorly as the team's lead running back, while Devaughn Vele and Troy Franklin serve as the No. 2 and 3 wide receivers behind Courtland Sutton, who's wasting away in Denver.

As for the Saints, it very well could be the Alvin Kamara show on Thursday Night in the Caesars Superdome.

Star wide receiver Chris Olave will almost certainly be ruled out with a concussion, and Rashid Shaheed appears likely to miss the contest due to a knee injury. That leaves some guy named Bub Means as rookie Spencer Rattler's top receiver.

Is this set to be the worst Thursday Night Football game of all time, existing only to serve the "Payton returns to New Orleans" narrative? Almost certainly.

Are we still going to find value as we hunt for the top Broncos vs. Saints TNF prop bets? You know it.

Be sure to also check out our  as part of our NFL Week 7 predictions.

Broncos vs. Saints player props: Thursday Night Football

Odds as of Wednesday and subject to change.

  • Bo Nix Over 186.5 passing yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Alvin Kamara Over 17.5 rushing attempts () ⭐⭐⭐
  • Alvin Kamara to score a touchdown (+100 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

NFL picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Bo Nix Over 186.5 passing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

After completely shutting down the Carolina Panthers in Week 1, the Saints' secondary has allowed three quarterbacks to throw for more than 300 yards, and Dak Prescott managed 299 in Week 2.

Nix was downright awful in his first career game, throwing for just 138 yards on 42 pass attempts against the Seattle Seahawks. But since then he's been at least serviceable mostly.

Nix has managed 200-plus passing yards in four of his last five games, and his projections for Thursday sit right around that number at 209. 

Based on that forecast, we're getting better than 26% positive expected value on this bet thanks to the low offering from BetMGM. Some of our other best sports betting sites - DraftKings and FanDuel - list Nix's passing yards prop at 191.5, while ESPN BET is at an absurd 199.5.

Let's take advantage of this good number (with the Over juiced less than the same total is at Pinnacle), with a winning $10 bet resulting in a $8.70 profit.

Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%

Up To $1,500 Back In Bonus Bets

Bonus bets will expire in 7 days. One new customer offer only. Additional terms and conditions apply.

Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission. 21+. Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly

Alvin Kamara Over 17.5 rushing attempts (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

With Kamara serving as potentially the only healthy Saints skill-position player you've ever heard of in this game, I expect we'll see a lot of him on Thursday.

Kamara managed only 13 carries in Rattler's first career start during Week 6, but the Saints were playing catchup for most of that contest. Against a decisively less explosive Broncos team, the Saints can try to lean on the run game more to take the pressure off their rookie signal-caller.

The five-time Pro Bowler has gone Over this total in half of his games this year. He's dealing with a hand injury that could affect his ability to catch the ball, so it's possible New Orleans hands it to him more to keep its best player involved.

The tailback is projected for just over 18 carries on Thursday, so this isn't a huge edge. However, most projection models are including Shaheed in the data, so we're jumping at this number ahead of the expected news that both Shaheed and Olave are out.

Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets

Deposit required. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission. 21+. Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly

Alvin Kamara to score a touchdown (+100) ⭐⭐⭐

With great power - or in this case, usage - comes great responsibility.

If Kamara is indeed the last man standing among New Orleans' starters, he'll be relied upon to score the very few touchdowns the team manages. At even-money odds, I'm willing to bet he finds the end zone.

Kamara is projected for right around 0.5 touchdowns, which mirrors the 50% implied probability associated with these odds. Therefore, we're once again not getting a huge edge.

Unfortunately, this game stinks and is filled with uncertainty. The latter makes it difficult to zero in on many four-star bets. The former makes us want to bet more than usual because, well, we're going to watch this disaster anyway, so we may as well make it slightly interesting.

All of our other best sports betting apps are offering Kamara to score at minus money, so let's take advantage of this more generous price at bet365. We've got a couple other plays to find paydirt in our Anytime Touchdown Scorer prediction.

Best odds: +100 via bet365 | Implied probability: 50%

Broncos vs. Saints key injuries

Broncos

  • Pat Surtain II (concussion), CB, out

Saints

  • Derek Carr (oblique),QB, doubtful
  • Chris Olave (concussion), WR, out
  • Rashid Shaheed (knee), WR, out
  • Taysom Hill (rib), TE, doubtful

Broncos vs. Saints odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Thursday Night Football game info

  • Matchup: Broncos vs. Saints
  • Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
  • How to watch: Amazon Prime
  • Weather: Indoors
  • Favorite: Broncos -2.5 (-115 via BetMGM)

Thursday Night Football promos

NFL betting odds pages

Here are our best NFL betting sites:

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.

Related pages

Written By:
Andrew Brennan
Andrew Brennan is a publishing editor for Sportsbook Review. He also heads the website’s MLB coverage, from the various futures markets to daily picks. Andrew believes a math-based approach is the best way to enjoy long-term success in sports betting, and he’s spent the better part of the last year fine-tuning his own process for MLB, NBA, and NFL picks. Andrew uses eight different sportsbooks to find the best odds available and various projection models to gather as much information as he can. His most used sportsbooks are bet365, FanDuel, and theScore Bet. When it comes to daily projection models, he regularly references NumberFire across all sports, as it’s one of the best free tools available. In terms of which daily markets Andrew attacks, he almost exclusively bets on pitcher strikeouts for baseball. When the winter rolls around, you’ll see him providing more variety when it comes to the NBA (points, assists, rebounds) and NFL (almost any offensive-based player prop). He used these tools to go +150 units in 2023. Andrew is also a passionate fantasy sports player. He’s played fantasy football, fantasy Premier League, and fantasy baseball for the last decade. He graduated from Durham College with his diploma in journalism after earning his degree in law from Carleton University. He’s worked in sports media since early 2017, first contributing at FanSided before moving to theScore. He joined SBR in 2022.