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Broncos vs. Saints Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight's Thursday Night Football

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 17, 2024 5:23 PM EDT • 4 min 18 sec read.

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara runs against the Atlanta Falcons as we offer our Broncos vs. Saints prediction for tonight's Thursday Night Football.
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara runs against the Atlanta Falcons. Photo by Dale Zanine via Imagn Images

Spencer Rattler has been tossed under the spotlight as he prepares to meet fellow rookie Bo Nix when the New Orleans Saints host the Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football. ;

  • The Broncos lost to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 6, their first defeat in the last four
  • Denver hasn't entered Week 7 with a record better than .500 for eight straight seasons
  • The Saints' defense was ripped apart by Tampa Bay in Week 6, allowing 594 yards

The Thursday Night Football odds across all our best sports betting sites have shifted in the lead-up to tonight's game.

Our Broncos vs. Saints prediction backed the visitors to cover the 1.5-point spread. That spread has increased to three points at BetMGM, Caesars, and bet365, while FanDuel and DraftKings have the Broncos as 2-point favorites. 

The below picks are part of our TNF coverage, including the Broncos vs. Saints parlay, Alvin Kamara touchdown picks, Broncos vs. Saints prop picks,  and Kamara player prop bets.

Best Broncos vs. Saints picks

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Broncos -1.5 () vs. Saints ⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Alvin Kamara Over 71.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Broncos vs. Saints against the spread prediction: Thursday Night Football

Broncos to cover the spread: -1.5 (-114) ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%

The Saints' defense stunk in Week 6

New Orleans conceded the most points (51) in Week 6 since 2012 and the most total yards (594) since 2004.

Conversely, it was Tampa Bay’s record for total yards and its second-most points in franchise history. This figures to be a get-right game for the Saints defense, as Denver has been shut out in the first half in three of six games.

But with the team amid a four-game losing streak and starting a rookie quarterback, it begs the question of just how productive they will be on that side of the offensive side of the ball.

Trust Nix’s experience more

Nix has made five more NFL starts than Rattler, but that extra experience is invaluable and should pay dividends.

While the Broncos are not built to stretch the field vertically like the Buccaneers, it is concerning that New Orleans allowed receptions of 36-plus yards to each of Tampa Bay’s top three receivers.

Denver has only three completions of 30 yards this season, but that could change, especially if it commits more to the running game to complement the passing attack.

Denver entered Week 6 with the 12th-most pass attempts but the lowest yards per completion average.

Broncos head coach Sean Payton is an astute offensive mind and leans on Javonte Williams, which will eventually pay off, even if his 79 touches are the most by any player without a touchdown.

Offsetting injuries

Patrick Surtain is arguably the best cover cornerback in the sport, and Denver’s defense will be compromised if he is out after suffering a concussion last week. Despite this, our Esten McLaren likes this defensive unit in his Anytime Touchdown Scorer prediction.

However, New Orleans is also dealing with a concussed player, as it lost Chris Olave last week. With Olave in the lineup, Rattler was 11-for-17 for 140 yards and a touchdown in the first half.

Without Olave, Rattler was 11-for-23 for 103 yards, threw two interceptions, and the team went scoreless.

This line has been all over the place this week. New Orleans began as a unanimous favorite at all sportsbooks. Then, depending on the sportsbook, each team was favored simultaneously on Monday, and Denver became the consensus favorite on Tuesday morning.

FanDuel is one of two top sports betting apps offering the Broncos at -1.5 instead of -2, but BetMGM’s price to back the Broncos at -1.5 is -120. The best number and odds are at FanDuel, where a winning $10 wager would profit $8.77.

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Broncos vs. Saints player prop

Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Alvin Kamara Over 71.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%

With such a low spread, this should be a nip-and-tuck game, so we should see a lot of Alvin Kamara in the running game, as the Saints entered Week 6 with the fifth-highest neutral rushing rate (in games separated by one score).

The Saints likely will not want much more on Rattler’s plate after the rookie completed just 55% of his passes and threw two picks. Kamara is the clear lead back of this offense, as his 109 carries easily trumps Jamaal Williams’ 27.

Kamara started the season with four straight weeks of 77-plus rushing yards but has been bottled up the last two weeks by an elite Chiefs defense and because of the chosen game script against the Buccaneers.

The O/U on Kamara’s rushing total is as high as 73.5 at Caesars, so Over backers will find the best number at FanDuel, the only one of our top sports betting sites offering as low as 71.5.

Andrew Brennan is also eyeing a productive night from Kamara in his Broncos vs. Saints TNF prop bets.

Broncos vs. Saints key injuries

Broncos

  • Pat Surtain II (concussion), CB, out

Saints

  • Derek Carr (oblique),QB, doubtful
  • Chris Olave (concussion), WR, out
  • Rashid Shaheed (knee), WR, out
  • Taysom Hill (rib), TE, doubtful

Broncos vs. Saints odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Thursday Night Football game info

  • Matchup: Broncos vs. Saints
  • Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Where: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans, La.)
  • How to watch: Prime Video
  • Weather: Indoors
  • Favorite: Broncos -1.5 (-120 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”