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Broncos vs. Chargers Prediction, TNF Picks & Odds: Thursday Night Football

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 18, 2024 7:45 AM EST • 3 min 60 sec read.

Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix throws for a touchdown against the Indianapolis Colts as we offer our Broncos vs. Chargers TNF prediction.
Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix throws for a touchdown against the Indianapolis Colts. Photo by Isaiah J. Downing via Imagn Images

This Week 16 Thursday Night Football matchup between two AFC West rivals has huge playoff implications, as the Los Angeles Chargers host the Denver Broncos (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video). 

  • Denver will clinch a playoff berth with a win
  • The Broncos’ nine wins are already their most in a season since 2016
  • Los Angeles won at Denver 23-16 in Week 6, but the Broncos have the league's best against the spread record (11-3)

The Thursday Night Football odds have Los Angeles as a 2.5-point home favorite with an O/U of 42 points, and our best Broncos vs. Chargers prediction like the home favorites to cover. ;

The below picks are part of our TNF coverage, including the Broncos vs. Chargers early picks. 

Best Broncos vs. Chargers picks

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Chargers -2.5 () vs. Broncos ⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Bo Nix Under 0.5 interceptions () ⭐⭐⭐

Broncos vs. Chargers against the spread prediction: Thursday Night Football

Chargers to cover the spread: -2.5 (-115) ⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 53.49%

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Denver’s struggles against winning teams

Denver may be 9-5 and in a great position to earn a playoff spot in the AFC entering this week, but if it is to make any postseason noise, it will need to start playing better against elite competition.

Against teams under .500, Nix is 8-0, leading the team to an average of 30.5 points per game while posting a 16-5 TD-INT ratio. However, Nix is 1-5 with a 4-6 TD-INT ratio against winning teams, and the Broncos average just 15.3 points in those contests.

That includes the first game against the Chargers when he completed just 57.6% of his passes, tied for his second-lowest in the last 10 games.

Buy low on the Chargers defense

Much is being made of the Broncos' defense, as they entered last week with the most sacks in the league (47) and ranked in the top two in yards per play allowed (4.9) and points per game allowed (18.0).

It would be easy to dismiss L.A.’s chances of defensive success in this matchup after it allowed season-highs in points (40) and yards (505).

But this is also a Chargers defense that allowed 17 points or fewer nine times through the first 12 games. That was when they had the league’s best scoring defense (15.7 points per game) and the best point differential (+72) among all AFC West teams.

Buying a Harbaugh bounce-back

Jim Harbaugh’s NFL teams know how to bounce back from a loss. His teams are 15-9 SU and 13-9-2 ATS after a loss, including a 3-2 SU and 3-1-1 ATS record in such games this year.

Denver has covered the spread in five straight games, and Bo Nix is the most profitable ATS quarterback this season with 11 covers in 14 games, but I expect that run to end on Thursday.

As tempting as it is to back Los Angeles laying three points at +105 odds at Caesars, I do not mind paying up slightly at DraftKings, the only of our best sportsbooks offering a spread lower than the key number of three.

Broncos vs. Chargers player prop

Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Bo Nix Under 0.5 interceptions (+112) ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +112 via Caesars | Implied probability: 47.17%

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It would be easy to get caught up in Bo Nix coming off a career-high three-interception game and suggest that his struggles will continue.

But Nix, receiving the second-shortest Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, had just four interceptions in the 11 games beforehand, so getting plus-money odds that he will finish another game without an interception is highly appealing.

Nix has averaged one interception in the six games he has played against teams with a winning record, but he has gone without an interception in two of the previous four such games.

This is a three-star play, as the Chargers’ inability to stop the run should lead to a more conservative game plan from Denver. Los Angeles had allowed 133.2 rushing yards per game from Weeks 10-14 before allowing 223 rushing yards to Tampa Bay last week. 

The lowest odds for Nix to finish without an interception are +105, but I am making this play at Caesars, where a $10 winning wager would return a profit of $11.20.

Broncos vs. Chargers odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Broncos vs. Chargers injuries

Thursday Night Football game info

  • Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Where: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, Calif.)
  • How to watch: Prime Video
  • Weather: Indoors
  • Favorite: Chargers -3 (-105 via BetMGM)

NFL betting odds pages

Here are our best NFL betting sites:

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”