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Broncos vs. Chargers Early Picks, Predictions & Odds for TNF Week 16

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 16, 2024 8:30 AM EST • 2 min 54 sec read.

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert drops back to pass, as we offer our Broncos vs. Chargers early picks and predictions for Thursday Night Football.
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) drops back to pass. Photo by Gary A. Vasquez / Imagn Images.

Two AFC West teams battling for wild card playoff berths meet on Thursday Night Football as we offer our Broncos vs. Chargers early picks and odds to open Week 16.

The Broncos would clinch a playoff berth with a win on Thursday, but we like the value on the home favorites right now in case the line moves off a key number.

My early Broncos vs. Chargers prediction: Chargers -3

NFL picks made Sunday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Prediction: Chargers -3

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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The Chargers have lost three of their last four games and are coming off a week where they went 0-for-6 on third down, making them just the second team all season to not convert a single third down in a game.

While Denver has scored 29 or more points in four straight games for the first time since 2014, Bo Nix is just 1-5 with a 4-6 TD-INT against teams with a winning record this season. Expect Los Angeles' fortunes to turn around on Thursday.

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Broncos vs. Chargers live odds

See the NFL odds from our best NFL betting sites for every Week 16 game.

Moneyline

  • Chargers best odds: -160 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 61.54%
  • Broncos best odds: +142 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 41.32%

Los Angeles raced out to a 23-0 lead before holding on for a 23-16 victory over Denver in Week 6. But that game was also at Mile High Stadium, and the Chargers should benefit this week from playing a second consecutive home game.

Nix and the Broncos are 7-0 SU (and ATS) as favorites this year, but they are just 2-5 as underdogs. As long as the spread stays at a field goal, there is likely to be more moneyline wagers on the Chargers.

Favorites are 54-19 SU on Thursday Night Football since 2021.

Spread

  • Chargers best odds: -3 (-110) via BetMGM
  • Broncos best odds: +3 (-102) via FanDuel

FanDuel is the only one of our best NFL prop betting sites offering better than a -102 price to back the road underdogs. Given how highly juiced L.A.’s point spread is at most shops, though, it is much more likely the line would go to -3.5 if it moved off the key number than to -2.5 or lower.

This game should have good two-way action, as plenty of public bettors will react to the Chargers’ win in the first meeting between these teams. Meanwhile, others will buy into Denver's 11-3 ATS record this season, making Nix the most profitable ATS quarterback. 

Over/Under

  • Over best odds: 42 (-110) via BetMGM
  • Under best odds: 43 (-110) via DraftKings

There is a big one-point difference among the best sportsbooks with regards to the total, but I expect more to align with DraftKings’ O/U of 43 before kickoff.

Los Angeles is coming off season highs in points allowed (40) and yards allowed (505). Meanwhile, Denver is averaging 34.8 points per game during a four-game winning streak, while also forcing 11 takeaways defensively in that span.

Broncos vs. Chargers injuries

How to watch Broncos vs. Chargers

  • When: Thursday, Dec. 19
  • Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Where: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, Calif.)
  • How to watch: Prime Video
  • Weather: Indoors

NFL betting odds pages

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”