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Broncos vs. Bills Early Picks, Predictions & Odds for Wild Card Weekend

Gabe Henderson

Last Updated: January 6, 2025 10:46 AM EST • 3 min 8 sec read.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) runs the ball against the Denver Broncos as we highlight our Broncos vs. Bills early picks and odds.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) runs the ball against the Denver Broncos. Photo by Mark Konezny-Imagn Images.

The busiest day of NFL Wild Card Weekend kicks off from Orchard Park, N.Y., as the Denver Broncos take on the Buffalo Bills at 1 p.m. ET (CBS) on Sunday, Jan. 12.

Our Broncos vs. Bills early picks and odds highlight a key factor that'll help decide the outcome of this contest. Buffalo is a 9-point favorite at our best NFL betting sites, as a part of our NFL Wild Card Weekend odds.

Oddsmakers expect NFL MVP odds favorite Josh Allen to improve to 6-5 during his career in the postseason. However, NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds favorite Patrick Surtain II will look to lead a road upset of the AFC's No. 2 seed.

My early Broncos vs. Bills prediction: Broncos +9

NFL picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Prediction: Broncos +9

Best odds: | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Denver wasn't supposed to be here, as evidenced by our best sportsbooks listing its preseason win total at O/U 6.5 with heavy juice toward the Under. However, Sean Payton's team is soaring behind NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds contender Bo Nix and the league's No. 3 scoring defense.

The Broncos have the joint-best record against the spread (12-5) this season. Payton has been excellent to bettors throughout his coaching career, with an overall ATS record of 158-130-4 (.548). This record improves when oddsmakers doubt Payton's teams, like they are here, as he's 54-39-2 ATS (.579) as an underdog.

Denver has lost only one game this season by nine points or more. Buffalo's high-flying offense has seen it blow out plenty of opponents, but only a few were playoff teams. In a battle of strength-vs-strength, our money's on the Broncos to keep it closer than the spread suggests given Payton's history in similar spots.

Don't miss our guide for how to bet on NFL or this week's best sportsbook promos.

Broncos vs. Bills live odds

See the NFL odds from our best NFL betting sites for every Wild Card Weekend game.

Moneyline

  • Bills best odds: | Implied probability: 81.48%
  • Broncos best odds: | Implied probability: 20%

Buffalo rattled off wins in 10 of its last 11 games before resting starters in Week 18. This stretch included wins over some of the NFL's best teams, so it's no surprise the Bills are heavily favored at the best sports betting sites to move on.

The best moneyline odds for the AFC's No. 2 seed are at DraftKings (-440). Those wishing to pick Denver straight-up in this upset spot can back the Broncos at +400 with BetMGM.

Spread

  • Bills best odds: -8.5 (-112) via DraftKings
  • Broncos best odds: +9 (-110) via Caesars

The Bills have the third-best margin of victory in the NFL this season (+9.2). As such, the public is backing the hosts with 42% of spread bets, according to BetMGM. DraftKings lists Buffalo as an 8.5-point favorite, whereas most of the market carries a 9-point spread.

Over/Under

  • Over best odds: 47.5 (-110) via BetMGM
  • Under best odds: 47.5 (-110) via BetMGM

The weather ahead of a big game in Buffalo is behaving for once, with snow forecast for Saturday and Monday but not Sunday. As such, we don't expect this line to move a ton in either direction.

Bettors have their pick of the litter with the total at our best sports betting apps, as it's listed at O/U 47.5 with standard juice nearly everywhere.

Broncos vs. Bills injuries to watch

How to watch Broncos vs. Bills

  • When: Sunday, Jan. 12
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • Where: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, N.Y.)
  • How to watch: CBS/Paramount+
  • Weather: 30 degrees, 22% chance of precipitation, wind 7 mph WNW
  • Favorite: Bills -9 (-110 via BetMGM)

NFL betting odds pages

Here are our best NFL betting sites:

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Written By:
Gabe Henderson
Gabe Henderson is a sports betting writer from Houston, Texas. He graduated from Louisiana State University in 2022 with a bachelor's degree in Mass Communication. Gabe developed an interest in sports betting while in college due to its legalization in Louisiana. He turned his passion into a career shortly after, joining The Advocate/NOLA.com as a Sports Betting Content Coordinator, where he spent two years. Gabe wore many hats before graduating as he led FanSided's coverage of Chelsea FC as a Site Expert with "The Pride of London." He was also the Editor-in-Chief of the LSU Gumbo Yearbook for two years. Gabe became a part of the 520ccc.com team in late 2024. He brings with him an extensive knowledge of many sports, including — but not limited to — NFL, NCAA, MLB, NBA, soccer, and UFC. Sports betting has not yet been legalized in Gabe's home state of Texas, so he frequently takes trips to Louisiana when he has the itch to place futures. Outside of work, Gabe considers himself an old head as he used an AOL email account until 2022 and still collects vinyl records.