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Bills vs. Lions Touchdown Picks & Odds: Week 15

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 15, 2024 9:13 AM EST • 3 min 63 sec read.

Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir reacts after catching a pass as we make our best Bills vs. Lions touchdown predictions.
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir reacts after catching a pass against the Los Angeles Rams during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Photo by Gary A. Vasquez / Imagn Images.

The O/U of 54.5 points for Sunday’s game between the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions is more than a touchdown higher than any remaining game on the Week 15 slate. 

That suggests plenty of touchdowns will be scored, which has us eager to find value with our Bills vs. Lions touchdown picks and odds.

  • This O/U of 54.5 points is the highest projected total of any game this season
  • Buffalo became the first team to score 42-plus points in a loss since Seattle in 2022
  • The Bills allowed their most points (44) ever to the Rams in a Josh Allen start

As part of our Week 15 NFL predictions I also broke down who I think will cover the spread in my Bills vs. Lions prediction.

Bills vs. Lions touchdown picks

Odds as of Friday and subject to change.

  • Josh Allen touchdown pick: Anytime touchdown scorer () ⭐⭐⭐
  • David Montgomery touchdown pick: To score a first-quarter touchdown () ⭐⭐
  • Khalil Shakir touchdown pick: Anytime touchdown scorer () ⭐⭐

NFL picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Best Bills vs. Lions touchdown props

Josh Allen anytime touchdown scorer ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +120 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 45.45%

Many bettors would not even look at a quarterback’s anytime touchdown odds unless it was to back Philadelphia Eagles signal-caller Jalen Hurts, who entered the week tied with Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry for the league lead with 13 touchdowns. 

However, thanks to recent explosions, Allen is ranked in the top 10 with nine rushing touchdowns. That is impressive, considering how efficient he is when he runs. All other players in the top 10 in rushing touchdowns have 132-plus carries (Allen has 80).

Allen became the first player since Otto Graham in 1954 with three passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns in a game. 

Now that the “tush push” seems to be a big arsenal in Buffalo’s playbook, I am banking on their QB to find the endzone. He can sneak it in that way just as easily as he can scramble for a score.

A $10 winning wager at DraftKings’ +120 would net $12 in profits, a great value compared to the $9.80 in profits one would reap from Caesars’ -102 odds.

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David Montgomery to score a first-quarter touchdown ⭐⭐

Best odds: +425 via bet365 | Implied probability: 19.05%

The Bills seem weak against smash-mouth football teams that can run downhill. Earlier this season, they allowed 271 rushing yards to the Ravens (199 to Henry) and tied a season-high total yards allowed (445) to the Los Angeles Rams last week.

Los Angeles set the tone early last week with 5.2 yards per rush in the first quarter and 67 total rushing yards in the opening 15 minutes. 

I expect Detroit to do the same, with Montgomery cashing in a short touchdown as the team’s featured goal-line back. Montgomery averages fewer than 60 rushing yards per game this season but still entered the week tied for third with 12 rushing scores.

Montgomery has odds of as low as -169 anytime touchdown (with an implied probability of 62.83%), so it is not blasphemous to think he will cash in on those odds in the first quarter.

I also included Monty's touchdown in my Bills vs. Lions player props.

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Khalil Shakir anytime touchdown scorer ⭐⭐

Best odds: +210 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 32.26%

Entering last Thursday’s game against the Green Bay Packers, Jayden Reed figured to have a big day against the Lions, whose defense had allowed the second-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers. He didn't come through, but we're going back to that position.

Shakir is Buffalo’s best slot receiver, and is coming off his second 100-yard receiving game in the last six weeks. 

He has seen seven or more targets in seven consecutive games, and is a great value play to find the endzone after snapping an eight-game touchdown drought last week.

The +210 anytime touchdown odds at FanDuel are the best value, with Shakir’s odds going as low as +170 at DraftKings.

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Bills vs. Lions picks

Bills vs. Lions game info

  • When: Sunday, Dec. 15
  • Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Where: Ford Field (Detroit)
  • How to watch: CBS
  • Weather: Indoors
  • Favorite: Lions -2.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

NFL betting odds pages

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”