Skip to main content

Bills vs. Lions Prediction, Picks & Best Bets Today: NFL Week 15

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 15, 2024 1:19 PM EST • 4 min 11 sec read.

Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown signs autographs as we make our best Bills vs. Lions prediction.
Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown signs autographs for fans before a game. Photo by Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images.

The Detroit Lions host the Buffalo Bills as home favorites today in what could serve as an early Super Bowl preview.

That's because both teams' Super Bowl odds indicate that both have a high probability of winning the Lombardi Trophy. Detroit leads the league with a 26.32% implied win probability to come out on top in the Big Game; Buffalo is 13.33%.  

While they have the best probability to win it all, Detroit has the second-best odds to finish with the most wins in the regular season. It's almost surprising that they don't have the best odds as they enter Week 15 on an 11-game win streak.

Our Bills vs. Lions prediction backs the home favorites and lays the 2.5 points.

The total for this game is the highest of any O/U on the Week 15 slate at 54.5. Kickoff from Ford Field is set for 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS), as this game highlights our NFL Week 15 predictions.

Bills vs. Lions predictions

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Lions -2.5 () vs. Bills ⭐⭐
  • My best pick: Josh Allen Over 33.5 rushing yards (-140 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Bills vs. Lions ATS prediction: Week 15

Lions to cover the spread: -2.5 ⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

Up To $1,500 Back In Bonus Bets

Bonus bets will expire in 7 days. One new customer offer only. Additional terms and conditions apply.

Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission. 21+. Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly

Detroit has big situational advantage

The Lions have not played a road game since Week 12, as this marks their third consecutive home game. Detroit has also played on Thursday the last two weeks, including the early 12:30 p.m. ET game on Thanksgiving, so it has even extra rest for this matchup.

Meanwhile, in the last three games, the Bills have played the now 12-1 Chiefs, the 49ers in a blizzard, and are coming off a West Coast trip to Los Angeles. 

The last time the Bills played multiple road games consecutively, they went 1-2 over a three-week span from Weeks 4 to 6. 

That was also the last time the Bills faced a team playing at home for the second consecutive week (a 23-20 loss to the Texans), while Detroit plays its third straight home game.

The Rams gave the Lions a blueprint for success

Against the Rams last week, Buffalo allowed a season high in points (the 44 points were also its most allowed since Week 1 of 2018) and yards (445). 

The Bills' defense was run over from the onset last week, allowing 5.2 yards per rush in the first quarter (67 yards overall). And when Buffalo committed to stopping the run, it allowed 11.4 yards per pass attempt in the second half (194 yards passing yards total).

Look for Detroit to use a ton of pre-snap motion to force favorable coverages. Buffalo allows 7.3 yards per pass attempt with pre-snap motion, which ranks 16th in the league.

In Buffalo’s 10 wins this season in defending plays with motion, it allowed a 37 QBR and 6.1 yards per attempt. In the three losses, all to teams 7-6 or better, the Bills rank in the bottom five of the league allowing an 88 QBR and 9.9 yards per attempt while defending motion.

Buffalo’s defensive confusion

The Rams put the Bills' defense in a state of confusion last week, forcing it to play in ways it's not accustomed to.

Buffalo played single-high safety on 47% of plays in Weeks 1-13. That increased to 69% in Week 14, and to 76% in the second half alone.

The Bills suffered their first regular-season loss in December or January since 2021, and I am backing Detroit to hand them a second consecutive loss. 

All of the best sports betting sites are in unison with a spread of -2.5 at standard -110 juice, so a $10 winning wager would return a payout of $19.09.

Andrew Brennan also thinks Amon-Ra St. Brown can help the Lions' effort to cover in his anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Week 15.

Bills vs. Lions picks

Bills vs. Lions best pick

Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Josh Allen Over 33.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -140 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 58.33%

Detroit has struggled with mobile quarterbacks this year. In four games, the Lions' opponent’s leading rusher (or was tied for the team’s rushing lead) was its quarterback (Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Anthony Richardson, and Caleb Williams).

Seven different quarterbacks have run for at least 29 yards against the Lions, and six have run for 34-plus. 

Allen ran for a season-high 82 yards in last week’s shootout against the Rams, and this game has similar shootout capabilities with an O/U of 54.5 points. 

This is a four-star play, as Allen has seven-plus rushing attempts and 54 or more yards rushing in three of the last four games he's played against teams with a winning record.

BetMGM charges -140 in juice to back the best number of 33.5. Bettors who think Allen will run for 37 or more yards may prefer the cheaper -115 odds to back the Over of 36.5 at DraftKings.

Bills vs. Lions odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Bills vs. Lions live odds

Bills vs. Lions opening odds:

  • Bills: +2.5 (+100 via BetMGM)
  • Lions: -2.5 (-120 via BetMGM)

Bills vs. Lions injuries

Bills vs. Lions game info

  • When: Sunday, Dec. 15
  • Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET 
  • Where: Ford Field (Detroit)
  • How to watch: CBS
  • Weather: Indoors
  • Favorite: Lions -2.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

NFL betting odds pages

Here are our best NFL betting sites:

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.

Related pages

Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”