Bills vs. Lions Player Prop Picks & Touchdown Prediction

The Week 15 matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions projects to be a shootout with a total of 54.5 points at the best NFL betting sites. As such, there is plenty of value to be had with our Bills vs. Lions player prop picks. 

• The Bills allowed a season-high in points (44) and passing yards (342) to the Rams last week
• Buffalo has scored 30-plus points in each of its last seven games, its longest such streak in franchise history
• With a victory this week, Detroit would set a franchise record for wins in a season (13)

In addition to our player prop selections, we also made our Bills vs. Lions predictions ahead of kickoff.

Bills vs. Lions NFL player prop picks: Sunday

Odds as of Saturday and subject to change.

• David Montgomery touchdown prediction: Montgomery to score the first touchdown () ⭐⭐
• Khalil Shakir Over 54.5 receiving yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• James Cook Under 67.5 rushing + receiving yards () ⭐⭐⭐

NFL picks made Saturday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Bills vs. Lions touchdown prediction

David Montgomery to score the first touchdown (+550) ⭐⭐

Best odds: +550 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 15.38%

There are much safer touchdown predictions out there in terms of backing players’ anytime touchdown odds, but I am swinging for a “home run” of sorts with my best touchdown pick for this game.

In each of the last three meetings between these teams, the first score of the game has been a Lions touchdown, including their Thanksgiving matchup in 2022. It does not bode well that Buffalo ranks 26th in rush defense, allowing 4.7 yards per carry, especially against a downhill rushing team like Detroit. 

Buffalo has three losses this year, and in each one, the first touchdown of the game was a rushing touchdown scored by the opposing running back (Derrick Henry, Cam Akers, and Kyren Williams). 

I am making this a two-star play based on the assumption Dan Campbell will look to similarly set the tone with a physical brand of football, paying off in a short touchdown plunge from Montgomery, who enters the week third in the league with 12 rushing touchdowns.

FanDuel’s +550 odds are a great value compared to the +430 odds offered at other NFL prop betting sites. If Montgomery were to be the first player to find the end zone, our $10 winning wager would net a whopping $55 in profits.

Bills vs. Lions picks

• Bills vs. Lions prediction
• Bills vs. Lions player prop picks
• Bills vs. Lions parlay picks
• Bills vs. Lions touchdown picks
• Josh Allen player prop picks

Best Bills vs. Lions prop picks

Khalil Shakir Over 54.5 receiving yards (-118) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -118 via Caesars | Implied probability: 54.13%

The Bills have been without two primary pass-catching options for multiple weeks (Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid), but Khalil Shakir has picked up the slack. Shakir has seen seven or more targets in seven consecutive games and now faces a Lions defense that allows the second-most receptions and receiving yards to wide receivers.

Detroit is particularly poor at defending slot receivers, allowing 1,000-plus yards to slot receivers. The Bills, by comparison, have allowed the second-most with 860. Given that Shakir runs 60% of his routes from the slot, he should again feast this week.

Shakir’s O/U for receptions is not available, likely because oddsmakers want more clarity on Coleman and Kincaid's statuses. But in the meantime, Caesars offers a slightly better number for his receiving yards, as other best sports betting apps are higher at 55.5.

James Cook Under 67.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%

At first glance, this is a curious line considering that James Cook has exceeded this projected scrimmage yards total in six of his 12 games on just rushing yards alone. But considering the matchup, I am backing the Under with three stars of confidence.

Cook has totaled 90-plus scrimmage yards in just one of his last five games. His snap share is also down to 43% over the last two weeks, as Buffalo has looked to get Ray Davis more involved in the running game. This is a brutal matchup against a Lions defense that allows the fifth-fewest rushing yards and the third-fewest to running backs.

We were wise to wait until now to place this wager at bet365, as Cook’s total is up from 66.5 earlier this week.

Bills vs. Lions game info

• When: Sunday, Dec. 15
• Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
• Where: Ford Field (Detroit)
• How to watch: CBS
• Weather: Indoors
• Favorite: Lions -2.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

NFL betting odds pages

Here are our best NFL betting sites:

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
• BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.

Related pages

• Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)