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Bills vs. Jets Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight's Monday Night Football

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 14, 2024 5:19 PM EDT • 4 min 2 sec read.

New York Jets running back Breece Hall carries the ball as we offer our Bills vs. Jets prediction for MNF.
New York Jets running back Breece Hall carries the ball against the Minnesota Vikings in the second half. Photo by Kirby Lee via Imagn Images

Robert Saleh is on the unemployment line, and Todd Downing will take over the offensive play-calling duties as Gang Green looks to tie the Bills for first place in the AFC East. 

  • Defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich was named the Jets' interim head coach
  • Aaron Rodgers is off to his worst five-game start since 2012, and we don't like his chances of steering the Jets to victory
  • Buffalo remains among the

The Bills are the Monday Night Football odds favorites, and the spread has recently moved from -2 to -1.

The below prediction is part of our MNF coverage, including our Bills vs. Jets MNF prop bets, our Bills vs. Jets MNF parlay, our Josh Allen MNF player props, and our Rodgers MNF player prop bets. 

Best Bills vs. Jets picks

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Bills -2 () vs. Jets ⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Breece Hall Over 3.5 receptions (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Bills vs. Jets against the spread prediction: Monday Night Football

Bills to cover the spread: -2 (-112) ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -112 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.83%

Robert Saleh became the first Jets coach ever fired mid-season under owner Woody Johnson (since 2000). There have been 38 other teams that fired their head coach during the regular season since 2003, and those teams went 17-21 straight up the following week.

Not only is Jeff Ulbrich running the day-to-day for the first time as a head coach, but he stripped offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett of his play-calling duties. That task now lies with Todd Downing, who served two different stints as offensive coordinator with the Raiders in 2017 and the Titans in 2021-22.

Downing faces an uphill climb getting this Jets offense going, as they rank last in rushing yards per game (80.4) and 30th in yards per carry (3.6). Even worse, New York’s offense is dead-last in points per game and Total QBR over the last three seasons.

Where is Rodgers’ impact?

Aaron Rodgers is coming off a game where he tied his career-high in interceptions (three) and was off target on 11 passes (tied for the sixth-most in his career).

New York’s offense struggled last season when Rodgers was lost for the year on the first drive. But through five games, there has been virtually no difference between this year’s team and the one Zach Wilson led for most of last year.

Through five games last season, New York was 2-3, averaging 18.6 points per game, 283.6 yards per game, 5.1 yards per play, and had a 36 Total QBR. The Jets are also 2-3 this season, while averaging 18.6 points per game, 286.6 yards per game (the sixth-fewest in the NFL), 4.5 yards per play (also the sixth-fewest), with a 50 Total QBR.

The scheduling factor hurts the Jets more than the Bills

Many are fading the Bills this week, citing the difficulty of them playing their third consecutive road game. However, few are talking about the detriments the Jets are facing because of their schedule.

New York is only the third team in the last 80 years to play its first three games of the season in 11 days. This is also one of the six-night games it plays in the first 11 weeks, which is the most of any team in that span over the last 20 years.

This line is arguably the sharpest of all games on the Week 6 slate, as it has not budged off Bills -2.5 all week, which is fascinating considering all the off-the-field news. 

This is a no-play at -3 or higher, but I am headed to DraftKings to place my wager on the Bills -2, as it is the only one of our top sports betting sites that is a half-point lower than its competitors at -2.5. A $10 winning wager at DraftKings’ -112 odds would pay out $18.93.

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Bills vs. Jets player prop

Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Breece Hall Over 3.5 receptions (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Breece Hall’s 28 targets are the most among running backs and his 21 receptions are tied for the second-most at the position.

Hall faces a Bills defense that has allowed the most targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns to running backs this year. His anytime touchdown odds are similar to his odds to go Over 3.5 receptions, but the receptions prop feels safer considering New York’s Under of 2.5 team total touchdowns is juiced to -210 at DraftKings.

Hall went over this projected total in each of the first three weeks of the season, and I expect Downing’s pre-snap motion and different looks will get him more involved in the passing game than he has been the last two weeks.

This Over is juiced as high as -120 at BetMGM, so I am taking advantage of the best price at DraftKings.

Best odds: -115 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 53.49%

Bills vs. Jets odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Monday Night Football game info

  • Matchup: Bills vs. Jets
  • Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Where: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, N.J.)
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Weather: 55 degrees, 20% chance of precipitation, wind 14 mph W
  • Favorite: Bills -2.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

NFL betting odds pages

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”