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Bills vs. Jets Early Picks, Predictions & Odds for MNF Week 6

Philip Wood

Last Updated: October 8, 2024 10:01 AM EDT • 3 min 43 sec read.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen on the field before the game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium as we look at our Bills vs. Jets early picks.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen on the field before the game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Photo by Troy Taormina/Imagn Images.

First place in the AFC East is on the line as the New York Jets host the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football. The Bills rank fifth in the Super Bowl odds, while the Jets sit among the second tier of contenders. Bills quarterback Josh Allen is also fourth in the NFL MVP odds.

Both the Bills and Jets have lost two straight games as we look at the best Bills vs. Jets early picks and odds for Week 6. The Jets have scored fewer than 20 points in consecutive contests, and Aaron Rodgers is coming off an ugly three-interception performance against the Minnesota Vikings.

Still, the Jets would occupy first place in the AFC East with a win on Monday.

Meanwhile, the Bills’ offense has been struggling in back-to-back weeks after scoring at least 31 points in each of the team's first three games. How will it perform against the Jets’ fifth-ranked scoring defense?

Our C. Jackson Cowart is favoring the Bills in his NFL Week 6 early picks.

My early Bills vs. Jets prediction: Under 41.5

NFL picks made Tuesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Prediction: Under 41.5

Best odds:  | Implied probability: 53.49%

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The Jets are allowing just 17.0 points per game this season. Only one offense has scored more than 20 points against them, and that outing came way back in Week 1.

The Vikings scored 23 last week, but that included a defensive touchdown. The Jets’ defense has been as advertised this year.

However, the offense hasn’t been nearly as good. The Jets' offense is averaging just 18.6 points per game, and it will likely struggle against a solid Bills defense this week.

The success of this Under will come down to the Bills’ offense. If it plays how the unit did in Weeks 1-3, the Over will hit. But nothing I’ve seen over the past two weeks suggests the Bills can produce that level of success against this defense. They've scored 30 total points over that span.

This is the type of game in which the winning team will tally 20 or fewer points.

Don't miss our guide for how to bet on NFL or this week's best sportsbook promos.

Bills vs. Jets live odds

See the NFL odds from our best NFL betting sites for every Week 6 game.

Moneyline

  • Bills best odds: | Implied probability: 58.33%
  • Jets best odds: +124 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 44.64%

The Bills opened at -135, and the price has increased to at least -140 at all of our best sports betting sites. The Bills’ struggles over the last two weeks haven’t scared bettors away before this matchup. So if you’re on the favorites, get in as soon as possible.

As for the Jets, it’s not surprising that bettors hold no faith in them based on their offensive play. However, the Bills field the worst defense the Jets have played in weeks. This number seems destined to climb over +135, and the Jets could be worth a play at that point.

Spread

  • Bills best odds: -2.5 (-110) via
  • Jets best odds: +2.5 (-110) via BetMGM

The Bills are taking all the action right now despite being the road team, with 67% of wagers back them. The spread has already increased to three at FanDuel because of it.

However, the other best sportsbooks have been reluctant to move to the key number. Does that mean those books hold more faith in the Jets than the public?

If the Bills continue to take a heavy majority of the bets and the line doesn’t move, then that should signal oddsmakers like the Jets in this game. However, it should just be a matter of time before the Bills are favored by at least three across the board.

Over/Under

  • Over best odds: 41 (-108) via DraftKings
  • Under best odds: 41.5 (-115) via FanDuel

Currently, 53% of wagers are backing the Over, which signals to me that there isn’t going to be much movement before kickoff. However, with this being a prime-time island game, I believe it’s much more likely the number will increase to 42 rather than drop to 40.

I really like the Under for this game. Get in at 41.5 now as part of your NFL predictions for Week 6 and then see if the number increases as the week goes along.

How to watch Bills vs. Jets

  • When: Monday, Oct. 14
  • Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Weather: 59 degrees, 30% chance of precipitation, 8-mph westerly winds
  • Favorite: Bills -2.5 (-102 via FanDuel)

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.