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Bills vs. Dolphins Prediction, Pick & Odds Week 18: Sunday Night Football

C Jackson Cowart

Last Updated: January 7, 2024 4:31 PM EST • 4 min 17 sec read.

The AFC East crown is up for grabs during Sunday Night Football in Week 18 when the Buffalo Bills visit the Miami Dolphins to conclude the 2023 NFL regular season, and our Bills vs. Dolphins prediction for Sunday Night Football based on the best NFL odds at the best sports betting apps anticipates a significant game from the road favorites.

Just a month ago, it seemed the Buffalo Bills were headed for disappointment in 2024. But a blazing streak has catapulted them into the ranks of Super Bowl favorites.

With a 10-6 record, Buffalo heads into a critical showdown against the 11-5 Miami Dolphins, holding a 3-point favorite status in this winner-takes-all AFC East clash on Sunday Night Football.

Starting December at .500 and up against a tough NFL schedule, nobody thought the Bills could clinch the AFC East championship. Yet, after securing four consecutive wins, they are certainly in a favorable position. This advantage seems even more pronounced considering the Dolphins' recent decline as they approach this pivotal Week 18 matchup.

In addition to our Bills vs. Dolphins player props, Josh Allen vs. Tua Tagovailoa player props, and Tyreek Hill player props, here is our best Bills vs. Dolphins prediction for Sunday Night Football (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Bills vs. Dolphins prediction: Sunday Night Football

Bills -3 () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This line appears to be skewed in favor of the Bills - the month-long darlings of NFL talking heads and futures bettors alike - and against underdog Miami. The latter is catching a field goal at home despite owning the better record with just as much at stake during Sunday's AFC East title game.

In reality, this isn't the same Dolphins team that notched a 50-point win over the Denver Broncos in September. And depending on who suits up Sunday, this 3-point line might not be going far enough.

Tyreek Hill, the engine for Miami's record-setting offense, appeared to re-aggravate his high ankle sprain in Week 17 and is questionable to play. He's combined for just 236 total yards and zero scores over three games since the injury, compared to 1,496 yards and 12 TDs across a dozen games prior.

Jaylen Waddle (ankle), the speedster on the other side of the formation, missed last week and won't play Sunday. That's also the case for top rusher Raheem Mostert (knee/ankle), whose 21 touchdowns are tied for the league lead. Finally, electric running mate De'Von Achane was one of 10 players limited in practice.

In addition, injuries have been decimating the Dolphins' defense lately. Star pass rusher Bradley Chubb (ACL) and cornerback Xavien Howard (foot) both went down during a 56-19 Week 17 loss to the Baltimore Ravens - a game with similar winner-take-all stakes for the AFC's No. 1 seed. Even QB Tua Tagovailoa (shoulder) finished on the sideline, though he's expected to play Sunday while the other two are not.

We don't need to imagine how those injuries will affect the Dolphins, as that's already shown up on the field. This team blew a 14-point lead in three minutes during Week 14, the beginning of the Dolphins' major injury woes. And Miami's 37-point loss in Week 17 was the worst of the season and seventh-worst in franchise history.

The Bills also haven't been the same team over the last month, but that's also why they're dealing as such heavy favorites.

Buffalo has gone 4-0 with the sixth-best scoring differential (plus-32) in December since its Week 13 bye. That's nothing new for this group, which ranks third in weighted DVOA, total DVOA, and net EPA/play and fourth in season-long scoring margin (plus-133).

The major difference lately has been this club's approach, as the Bills have been suffocating teams with their resurgent run game and opportunistic defense. They'll likely need more from Josh Allen against Miami, but he'll face a 'Fins defense without its top two pass-rushers. It's a unit Allen already torched for 320 yards and four touchdowns during a 48-20 win in Week 4.

Buffalo has won 12 of 14 games against Miami since Sean McDermott took over in 2017, which includes three straight wins against Mike McDaniel. All three of those victories have come by at least three points, and the third marked the largest loss (28 points) of the McDaniel era prior to Week 17.

These aren't the same teams that faced off in Week 4, and that's exactly why the Bills remain field-goal favorites, even on the road. Maybe the line doesn't appear so skewed, after all.

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Bills vs. Dolphins best odds

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Bills -3Bills -3Bills -3Bills -3Bills -3
-110-110-110-110

This is a pretty sharp line, with nearly all of our best sports betting sites offering the Bills as 3-point favorites at -110 odds. The only exception is , which is where we'd recommend placing this bet.

With this wager dealing at such similar prices across our best sportsbooks, I'd highly recommend checking out our best sportsbook promos to see which shop is offering the bonus bet for Sunday Night Football.

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Bills vs. Dolphins odds for Sunday Night Football

Bills vs. Dolphins odds analysis

The Bills briefly opened at -1.5, but the market quickly corrected to -3 across our best sports betting apps, which are in near-perfect unison ahead of Sunday's regular-season finale to decide the AFC East.

Buffalo was catching 1.5 points when this game was first offered ahead of Week 17, which speaks to the myriad injury woes and poor performances that are plaguing the Dolphins down the stretch.

Sunday Night Football game info

  • When: Sunday, Jan. 7 at 8:20 p.m. ET
  • Where: Hard Rock stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
  • How to watch: NBC
  • Weather: 68 degrees, 35% chance of precipitation, 8-mph winds

Bills-Dolphins prediction made Wednesday at 10:30 p.m. ET.

Check out our best NFL betting sites:

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Written By:
C Jackson Cowart
C Jackson Cowart is a publishing editor and lead writer for Sportsbook Review. An award-winning writer, reporter, and editor with a decade of sports media experience, "C-Jax" has worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and various daily newspapers before joining the Sportsbook Review team. He's a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he served as a beat writer for the Tar Heels' championship run through the NCAA men's basketball tournament in 2017. Jackson has spent the last five years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter. Since joining the team in 2023, he's played a key role in Sportsbook Review's coverage of the Super Bowl, March Madness, and NBA playoffs while serving as the lead writer for the growing WNBA and NASCAR betting scenes. Though he's cashed some big bets over the years -- including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) -- he's still haunted by enough second-place bet slips to wallpaper his home office. While Jackson is a committed "process over results" bettor with a keen eye for advanced stats and subtle bias in futures markets, he also embraces sports betting as a vehicle for entertainment and personal investment. He's written about everything from hot dogs to groundhogs and still hasn't forgiven his "inside source" for a sabotaged bet on the Gatorade color in Super Bowl LV.