Machibet CasinoBills vs. Lions Thanksgiving Picks, Predictions: Are We in for a Turkey Day Shootout?

The Detroit Lions resume their annual role as Thanksgiving Day hosts, this year to the Buffalo Bills. Check out our top Bills-Lions NFL picks below.

The Bills (7-3) had time to get comfortable with their surroundings at Ford Field for this week, as they are coming off a 31-23 Week 11 victory over the Cleveland Browns in a game that was moved from Buffalo because of weather. The win snapped a season-high two-game losing streak for Buffalo and pulled the team even with Miami atop the AFC East standings.

Detroit (4-6) is in the midst of its first three-game winning streak since 2017 and is coming off a 31-18 road win over the previously 7-2 New York Giants. The win was the Lions’ first by double-digits this season.

Here are our Bills-Lions NFL picks for Week 12 (odds via PointsBet, DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our top Giants vs. Cowboys and Patriots vs. Vikings picks.

Bills vs. Lions Game Info

Date: Thursday, Nov. 24, 12:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Weather: Indoors

Bills vs. Lions Odds

Bills vs. Lions Odds Analysis

The Bills have drawn a slight majority of the tickets (53%) but the consensus line has moved from Bills -10 to -9.5 as of Thursday morning with 52% of the handle backing Detroit.

The Over/Under has risen from 51.5 to 54.5 with 68% of the tickets accounting for 75% of the cash on the Over.

Check out our top sites for Maryland sports betting.

Bills vs. Lions Picks

Check out our Bills vs. Lions same-game parlay picks and our NFL Thanksgiving prop picks.

Bills vs. Lions ATS Pick

Lions +9.5 (-105) ★★★★

While Buffalo looked comfortable in its Ford Field surroundings last week, the circumstances are much different, with a packed stadium of fans rooting against them. Despite the Bills ranking first in total DVOA (sixth on offense, third on defense), there are still enough injury concerns that should give Buffalo backers trepidation this week. Leading tackler Tremaine Edmunds is likely to miss yet another game on a short week, Tre’Davious White - its best cornerback - remains out, and the team lost defensive end A.J. Epenesa (ankle) in last week’s victory.

Quarterback Josh Allen started last week just 4-for-10 for 27 yards, as many of his throws were late or off-target. Though he finished without a turnover for the first time since Week 6, it is fair to wonder if the elbow injury affects his play or confidence.

Lions backers will find the most value at PointsBet, who not only offers the only +9.5 point spread out there, but with minimal juice (-105) to boot.

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Bills vs. Lions O/U Pick

Over 45.5 (-110) ★★★

Buffalo used an uncommonly balanced offense (32 running plays, 27 pass attempts) to lead scoring drives on eight of its 10 possessions in Week 11. While six of those scores were field goals, we expect some regression to finish more of those drives with touchdowns.

Detroit is coming off its fifth game this season with 30-plus points and has scored at least 24 in 70% of its contests. The Lions are proving a solid running game will allow them to score points anywhere, not just in the friendly confines of their dome, as the previous two 30-plus point performances came away from home in each of the last two weeks.

Check out our NFL Thanksgiving parlay picks!

Bills vs. Lions Prop Pick

Williams anytime touchdown scorer (-125) ★★★

As long as Lions running back D’Andre Swift is not healthy enough to be the bell-cow back, Jamaal Williams will continue to get the bulk of the work, especially around the goal line.

Williams became the third player in Lions history with 12-plus rushing touchdowns in a season, joining Billy Sims and Barry Sanders. In addition, Williams is the first player with two or more rushing touchdowns in five of the first 10games of a season since LaDainian Tomlinson accomplished that in 2006. The Bills defense can be beaten up the middle, and we expect Williams to find the end zone again on Thursday.

Where to Bet on Bills vs. Lions Picks

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Bills-Lions picks made 11/22/2022 at 6:20 a.m. ET

Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”