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Bills vs. Bengals Odds, Picks, Predictions Week 17: Who Wins This Colossal AFC Matchup?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 2, 2023 11:14 AM EST • 2 min 32 sec read.

The Monday Night Football clash between the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals will be critical for determining how the top three seeds in the AFC shake out. Read on for our best Bills-Bengals based on the top odds.

This is just the second week since 1970 with just one game involving winning teams during the final two weeks of a season, according to ESPN Stats and Information.  

Buffalo (12-3) has clinched the AFC East for the third consecutive campaign and would be the No. 1 seed in the AFC with wins in its final two games.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati (11-4) will clinch the AFC North with a victory.

The Bengals and Bills boast the two longest active winning streaks in the AFC after taking a combined 13 games.

Here is our best Bills-Bengals NFL pick for their Monday Night Football Week 17 matchup (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Bills-Bengals SGP, Monday Night Football prop picks, and Josh Allen-Joe Burrow prop picks.

Bills vs. Bengals Game Info

Date: Monday, Jan. 2, 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Weather: 61 degrees, 24% chance of precipitation, 8-mph south winds

Bills vs. Bengals Odds

Bills vs. Bengals Odds Analysis

Buffalo has teetered between -1 and -1.5 point favorites all week. The line now widely sits at -2.5 for the Bills. That slight line movement is an indication of the solid two-way betting action, as the Bengals are attracting 50% of the cash and 61% of the tickets.

The total has held firm at 49.5, with Caesars the only sportsbook offering a differing line of 50. The betting splits on the total are much more lopsided than the point-spread splits, as the Over is getting 84% of the bets but just 70% of the handle.

Editor's note: Hey Ohio! Welcome to legal sports betting. Check out the best sites for Ohio sports betting and the best Ohio sportsbook promos!  

Bills vs. Bengals Pick

Bengals ML (+100) ⭐⭐

Buffalo’s defensive philosophy under coordinator Leslie Frazier is to avoid surrendering the big play, making opponents use sustained drives to work down the field and then clamping down in the red zone. However, Cincinnati’s red-zone offense could be the difference in a matchup of similar teams. 

The Bengals scored touchdowns on 34 of 50 red-zone drives entering Week 16, and that 68% touchdown percentage is the fourth-highest in the league. Cincinnati also boasted a red-zone QBR of 80 (fifth), 21 passing touchdowns (tied for second), and 13 rushing touchdowns (tied for ninth). And Joe Burrow had completed 60.8% of his red-zone attempts to go along with a 21-0 TD-INT ratio.

The Bills have worked hard all season to put themselves in a position to control their own destiny for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. But at some point, there are too many factors to overcome, starting with the brutal weather conditions that dropped multiple feet of snow in their area, altering the team's travel plans on the way back from Chicago. Von Miller will miss this game too, and Burrow is deadly when given time to drop back and survey the field.

Check out our NFL against the spread power rankings for Week 17.

Bills vs. Bengals Best Odds

BetMGM (+100)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
-105-102+100+100+100

With the Bengals only getting +1.5 points, we're opting for the slightly better value with Cincinnati to win outright. The only risk involved with that wager is it not cashing if the Bengals suffer a one-point loss.

BetMGM is one of three sportsbooks offering Cincinnati at plus odds, so Bengals backers get plenty of places to choose from.

Bills-Bengals pick made 1/1/2023 at 8:01 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”