Machibet LoginNFL Best Bets Week 9: Matchups, Odds, Picks, Predictions

Our NFL best bets power rankings look at the top picks each week from across the league.

The Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills, and Kansas City Chiefs are separating themselves from the rest of the pack in their respective conferences. Oddsmakers have taken notice, instilling them as the only three double-digit favorites this week. We have highlighted the odds, movements, and our NFL best bets for Week 9.

Two historical betting trends are in play this week. Last night, Philadelphia kicked off as the largest road favorite (-13.5) in the 16-year history of Thursday Night Football. Meanwhile, the Tennessee Titans are +12.5 point underdogs to Kansas City, making them the largest underdog of any team in the Super Bowl era when entering a game with five consecutive wins or more.

Here are our best bets for the NFL's Week 9 slate (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, PointsBet, FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out all of our top picks for Week 9!

Week 9 NFL Schedule and Odds

(odds via DraftKings)

Week 9 NFL Best Bets

Moneyline: Bills/Chiefs/Bengals parlay (-128 via DraftKings)★★★★
Spread: Vikings -3 (-115 via Caesars)★★★★
Total: Seahawks-Cardinals Over 49.5 (-107 via PointsBet) ★★★★
Upset: Lions (+164 via FanDuel) ★★★
Player Prop: Justin Fields anytime touchdown scorer (+170 via DraftKings) ★★★

Sunday's NFL Top Picks

Moneyline: Bills/Chiefs/Bengals parlay (-128)

With the Eagles already having played on Thursday night, we are combining the three biggest remaining favorites on Sunday in a three-leg parlay.

Buffalo is one of two teams in the last 40 seasons to be at least a 12-point favorite over a team with a winning record, and quarterback Josh Allen has been exceptional with a 7-3-2 ATS record as a double-digit favorite.

Chiefs head coach Andy Reid's teams are 20-3 SU in the regular season following a bye week. Reid's 87% winning percentage off a bye week is the best all-time of any NFL head coach. His teams are also 12-1 SU at home off bye weeks and are 8-1 SU in his time in Kansas City with Patrick Mahomes as his starting quarterback. Kansas City has also been prone to avoiding upsets, as it is 14-0 SU in its previous 14 games as favorites of at least seven points.

Lastly, Cincinnati has covered the spread in five of its previous six games, and we expect the Bengals to beat a Carolina team in the midst of a seven-game road losing streak for the first time since 2010-11.

Spread: Vikings -3 (-115)

In one-possession games last season, the Minnesota Vikings had a point margin of -1, a +9 turnover margin, and a 6-8 record. The eight losses were the most in the league. This year, Minnesota is 5-0 in one-possession games, with a +30 point margin and +6 turnover margin.

Minnesota's offense now benefits from the acquisition of tight end T.J. Hockenson. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has 10 total touchdowns and two interceptions during the team's five-game winning streak. However, when targeting tight ends, Cousins' 5.5 YPA ranks last among 33 qualified quarterbacks, his 38 QBR is 30th, and his 33% first-down percentage ranks 26th.

Hockenson should pay immediate dividends, considering his 15.2 yards per reception are the best among all tight ends.

Total: Seahawks-Cardinals Over 49.5 (-107)

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith's 107.2 passer rating is the third-highest in the league. He showed tremendous poise under duress in last week's win over the New York Giants. Though he was pressured on 19 dropbacks (most by any quarterback in a game won this season), he completed 7-of-15 passes for 104 yards and threw two touchdowns to zero interceptions.

Smith entered the game ranked second among all quarterbacks in QBR (83), completion percentage (63%), and YPA (8.6) against man coverage. Though he faced man coverage just 9.8% of the time in Week 6 against the Arizona Cardinals, we expect him to make the necessary adjustments if he faces predominantly zone this time. In addition, Seattle can always lean on a solid ground game, as Arizona has allowed 100-plus rushing yards five times this season.

Upset: Lions (+164)

Detroit fell to 4-19-1 under head coach Dan Campbell after last week's 31-27 loss to the Miami Dolphins. As bad as that record is, the Lions have been in every game they played this season when fully healthy.

Toss out consecutive road losses to the New England Patriots and Dallas Cowboys by a combined 53-6, as Detroit was without stars D'Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown, its two best skill position players, for both matchups. Outside of those games when fully healthy, the Lions have lost four games by four or fewer points.

Regression should soon be coming, and it could come this week against a Green Bay Packers team that already has lost five times through eight games for the first time since 2006.

Player prop: Fields anytime touchdown scorer (+170)

Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields has been unlocked in the running game of late, with 60-plus rushing yards in three consecutive games.

He has run the ball 34 times during that span, with 17 being designed runs, and has a red-zone carry the last two games. Expect him to make it three straight, especially with the addition of wideout Chase Claypool to draw more attention to the outside.

Where to Bet on the NFL

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NFL Week 9 best bets made on 11/04/22 at 6:23 a.m.

Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”