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NFL Week 18 Best Bets: Predictions, Player Props & ATS Picks

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 4, 2025 5:40 PM EST • 5 min 40 sec read.

Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton celebrates a touchdown catch as we make our NFL Week 18 best bets.
Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton (14) celebrates a touchdown catch. Photo by Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images.

The final week of the NFL regular season is upon us, as Week 18’s 16-game slate features a mix of contests involving teams still fighting for playoff berths, and others with little to play for given their playoff seeding locked.

  • Four teams (Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, and Houston Texans) have their playoff seeding locked entering Week 18, but await their potential NFL Wild Card look-ahead odds opponent
  • The winner of the Sunday Night Football matchup between the Detriot Lions and Minnesota Vikings will be the NFC’s No. 1 seed
  • Five teams (Atlanta Falcons, Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, Miami Dolphins, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers) have neither been eliminated from playoff contention nor clinched a playoff berth

Our NFL Week 18 best bets back two underdogs to cover the spread based on NFL Week 18 odds, and make our best player prop selections on a running back and wide receiver against teams whose playoff seeding is set.

Best NFL player props & ATS predictions for Week 18

NFL odds subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

  • Courtland Sutton anytime touchdown scorer () vs. Chiefs  ⭐⭐⭐
  • Tyrone Tracy Jr. Over 49.5 rushing yards () vs. Eagles  ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Bears +10.5 () vs. Packers  ⭐⭐⭐
  • Jets +1.5 (-118 via FanDuel) vs. Dolphins  ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Week 18 NFL odds & schedule

(Odds via BetMGM)

  • Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens (-18), Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET
  • Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Saturday at 8 p.m. ET
  • Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons (-8.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
  • Washington Commanders (-5) vs. Dallas Cowboys, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
  • Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers (-10), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
  • Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans (-1.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
  • Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts (-5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
  • Buffalo Bills (-2) vs. New England Patriots, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
  • New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-3), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
  • New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
  • Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos (-11), Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Los Angeles Chargers (-4) vs. Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams, Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Miami Dolphins (-1) vs. New York Jets, Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET
  • San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals (-4), Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions (-3), Sunday at 8:20 p.m. ET

NFL props for Week 18

NFL picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

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Courtland Sutton anytime touchdown scorer ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +150 via Caesars | Implied probability: 40%

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Denver has a projected team total of 25.5 to 26.5, depending on the NFL odds, in a game it needs to win to clinch a playoff berth. 

The Broncos should be in for a big offensive day if the Chiefs follow the same thought pattern and rest several key defensive starters, as they are Patrick Mahomes. Broncos quarterback Bo Nix entered last week tied for the fifth-most passing touchdowns and eighth in passing yards per game since Week 8. Sutton has been a favorite target of Nix, with a 24.8% target share and 32% first-read share in that span. 

Sutton has at least one touchdown catch in two of the last three weeks and four of the last seven, which includes a 6/70/1 stat line at Arrowhead in the first meeting between these teams. A $10 winning wager through Caesars’ +150 odds would net $15 in profits, compared to the $11.50 bettors would profit through DraftKings’ +115 odds.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. Over 49.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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For as much hype as Giants rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers gets, fellow rookie running back Tyrone Tracy Jr.’s has flown relatively under the radar. Nabers and Tracy became the third pair of rookie teammates with 1,000-plus scrimmage yards in the same season earlier this year.

While Tracy has not rushed for 50 yards in five of the last six weeks, he is coming off an encouraging 20 carries (tying his season-high) last week. Tracy has averaged 3.1 yards per carry or fewer in three of the last four weeks, but the Giants continue to feed him the rock. His yards per carry average should increase against an unmotivated Eagles defense with the team locked into the NFC’s No. 2 seed.

NFL game predictions for Week 18

Bears +10.5 ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.49%

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The Bears and Packers rivalry has not been very competitive lately, as Chicago has lost 11 consecutive games against Green Bay, with just one cover in that span. However, the lone cover came in Week 11 in a narrow 20-19 home loss as 6.5-point underdogs.

Green Bay has struggled against divisional opponents this season, going 1-4 while averaging 23.8 points per game and allowing 27.0 points per game. In addition, the Packers have a -3 turnover differential in divisional games. Against all opponents outside of their division, the Packers are 10-1, winning games by an average of 29.0-16.3 and posting a +15 turnover differential. 

Green Bay is only playing for seeding (it can either be the No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the NFL Wild Card Round look-ahead odds), but that may not be enough motivation to play every starter knowing an important playoff game looms next week.

FanDuel is the only one of our best NFL betting sites offering a line of +10.5, while all other competing sportsbooks are a half-point lower at +10.

Jets +1.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -118 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.13%

Miami needs to beat the Jets and needs the Broncos to lose to Kansas City to secure the AFC’s last wild card spot. While many bettors will blindly back the motivated team against the team eliminated from playoff contention, history says that is not always wise.

Teams eliminated from playoff contention playing against teams who need wins in the final two weeks of the season have covered the spread 60% of the time (105-69-4 ATS) over the last 25 years.

Miami plans to be without Tua Tagovailoa, who sat out last week’s win over Cleveland with a hip injury. While the Dolphins have won six of their last eight games, I am not sold on their offense if Tyler Huntley is under center, even if he is 3-0 ATS as a road favorite in his career.

FanDuel is again a half-point higher than the rest of the market, as all other top sports betting sites are at Dolphins -1.

Week 18 expert picks

NFL betting odds pages

Here are our best NFL betting sites:

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”