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NFL Best Bets, Odds Week 12: Matchups, Picks, Predictions

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 1, 0001 12:00 AM EST • 3 min 64 sec read.

Our NFL best bets power rankings look at the top picks each week from across the league.
Our NFL best bets power rankings look at the top picks each week from across the league.

With Thursday's three Thanksgiving games in the rearview mirror, we focus our attention on our best bets for the remaining 13 games this week. We have highlighted the odds, movements, and our NFL picks and best bets for Week 12.

We seemingly have betting history made every week, which is no different entering Week 12. The Los Angeles Rams (+15.5) are currently the largest underdogs ever as defending Super Bowl Champions. In addition, no defending champion since 1997 has gotten off to a worse ATS start through 10 games than L.A.'s 2-7-1 ATS record.

Here are our best bets for Week 12’s NFL slate (odds via PointsBet, FanDuel Sportsbook, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out all of our top NFL picks for Week 12!

Week 12 NFL Schedule and Odds

(odds via DraftKings)

Check out our NFL odds and lines analysis for Week 12!

Week 12 NFL Best Bets

  • Moneyline: Commanders (-200 via PointsBet) vs. Falcons
  • Spread: 49ers -8.5 (-110 via FanDuel) vs. Saints
  • Total: Rams-Chiefs Under 43.5 (-115 via FanDuel)
  • Upset: Titans (+130 via DraftKings) vs. Bengals
  • Prop pick: Seahawks team total Over 26.5 (-105 via DraftKings)

NFL Top Picks for Week 12

Moneyline: Commanders (-200) ★★★★

In Weeks 1-5, the Washington Commanders went 1-4 straight up. The Commanders' defense allowed 25.6 points per game in that stretch with a 103.7 opposing passer rating and recorded just one takeaway. Since then, Washington is 5-1 SU on the back of a resurgent defense. The Commanders have allowed 15.8 points per game, an 81.2 opponent passer rating, and have forced 12 takeaways across their last six games.

Washington now gets stronger on defense after activating edge rusher Chase Young to the 53-man roster. The Washington defense will continue to overcome any deficiencies that quarterback Taylor Heinecke and the offense may have.

Spread: 49ers -8.5 (-110) ★★★★

Through the first six games, the San Francisco 49ers went 3-3 SU. They averaged 18.0 points per game and 340.2 yards per game in that span, and converted just 41% of their third-down opportunities. Since acquiring running back Christian McCaffrey four weeks ago, the 49ers are 3-1 and his presence has done wonders for the offense.

San Francisco has averaged 28.5 points per game since McCaffrey's arrival with 396.5 yards per game and a 55%  third-down conversion rate. The invigorated offense is the perfect complement to a defense that has allowed fewer 14 or fewer points on five occasions this season and has shut out opponents in the second half in three consecutive weeks.

49ers backers should head to FanDuel, which provides much more value than the other 9- and 9.5-point spreads offered by its competitors.

Total: Rams-Chiefs Under 43.5 (-115) ★★★★

Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has already been ruled out as he could not clear concussion protocol. Los Angeles' offense was not pretty with John Wolford under center two weeks ago against Arizona, as the team finished with 256 total yards, and Wolford had a 20.8 QBR. As a result of the competition, the Kansas City Chiefs' offense will not have to be as full throttle as it was last week with Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers on the opposing sideline. Thus, expect a conservative game plan from Kansas City in a game the Rams will be hard-pressed to score more than 10 points.

FanDuel is the only place where one can find a total of 43.5, so we will gladly head there for the extra half-point worth of value on this wager.

Upset: Titans (+130) ★★★

Tennessee Titans head coach Mike Vrabel has gone no worse than 9-7 in his first four full seasons as Tennessee Titans head coach, exceeding the team's projected win total every year. In addition, the Titans have won the most games outright as underdogs (22), and no team has a higher winning percentage (56.4%) as an underdog in that span.

Tennessee has the longest active cover streak in the NFL at eight games and joined the 2021 Green Bay Packers, 2020 Buffalo Bills, 2018 New Orleans Saints, 2016 Dallas Cowboys, and 2015 Minnesota Vikings as the only teams in the league to cover the spread in eight consecutive games in the last 10 years. 

With last week's outright win as underdogs on Thursday night against Green Bay, the Titans improved to 24-14 ATS as underdogs under Vrabel, and quarterback Ryan Tannehill is now 4-0 SU and ATS following wins this season. Tannehill has won his last six games as a starter, and the Titans look for revenge against a Cincinnati Bengals team that beat them 19-16 in the AFC Divisional Round last year.

While competing sportsbooks are commonly at +120 or lower, Tennessee backers should head to DraftKings for optimal value on this wager.

Check out our NFL upset picks for Week 12!

Prop pick: Seahawks team total Over 26.5 (-105) ★★★

Do not be influenced by the 16 points the Las Vegas Raiders allowed against the Denver Broncos last week, as the Broncos are easily the worst offense in the league. Before that game, the Raiders were the only team in the NFL to allow 20-plus points in every game.

Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith has accounted for at least two touchdowns in four consecutive games, and for fantasy football pundits, the Raiders have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.

Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker should also be well-rested after a bye week, and he has averaged 124.3 rushing yards in the three games where he has had at least 21 carries. However, he is also coming off season-highs in targets and receiving yards in the previous two weeks, so his increased involvement in the passing game should take this offense to new heights.

Where to Bet on the NFL

Best NFL Betting Sites:

NFL Week 12 best bets made on 11/25/22 at 7:23 a.m. ET.

Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”