Machibet BetNFL Best Bets Week 11: Matchups, Odds, Picks, Predictions

Our NFL best bets power rankings look at the top picks each week from across the league.

The Philadelphia Eagles and Buffalo Bills have lost three consecutive games between them as the league's parity continues. We have highlighted the odds, movements, and our NFL best bets for Week 11.

The New England Patriots have beaten the New York Jets 13 consecutive times, tied with the Kansas City Chiefs' 13-game winning streak over the Denver Broncos as the longest active winning streak by one team over an opponent.

Here are our best bets for the NFL's Week 11 slate (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, PointsBet, BetMGM, DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Week 11 NFL Schedule and Odds

(odds via DraftKings)

Cleveland Browns (+290) vs. Buffalo Bills (-350)
Philadelphia Eagles (-295) vs. Indianapolis Colts (+245)
Detroit Lions (+135) vs. New York Giants (-155)
New York Jets (+150) vs. New England Patriots (-175)
Carolina Panthers (+490) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-660)
Chicago Bears (+140) vs. Atlanta Falcons (-165)
Washington Commanders (-150) vs. Houston Texans (+130)
Los Angeles Rams (+155) vs. New Orleans Saints (-180)
Las Vegas Raiders (+130) vs. Denver Broncos (-150)
Dallas Cowboys (-125) vs. Minnesota Vikings (+105)
Cincinnati Bengals (-205) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (+175)
Kansas City Chiefs (-245) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (+205)
San Francisco 49ers (-350) vs. Arizona Cardinals (+290)

Week 11 NFL Best Bets

Moneyline: Cowboys (-120 via BetMGM) ★★★★
Spread: Browns +8.5 (-110 via Caesars) ★★★★
Total: Raiders-Broncos Under 41.5 (-107 via PointsBet) ★★★★
Upset: Colts (+250 via Caesars) ★★★
Team Prop: Commanders Over 2.5 team total touchdowns (+115 via DraftKings) ★★★

NFL Top Picks

Moneyline: Cowboys (-120) ★★★★

This is the fourth instance since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger where an 8-1 or better team is a home underdog. You think Vegas is trying to tell us something by making Dallas the favorite?

Though Minnesota (8-1) is off to its best start since 2009 and is in the midst of its longest winning streak (seven games) since 2017, the Vikings have been playing with fire lately. All seven consecutive wins have been by one possession, and the team has trailed by 10, three, one, 10, and 10 points in the fourth quarter in five of those wins.

Though wideout Justin Jefferson is coming off a career-high 193-yard performance against the Buffalo Bills, his 1.5 yards of separation per target were a career low. Dallas' Trevon Diggs is one of the best cover cornerbacks in the game, and his ability to neutralize Jefferson will go a long way in helping a run defense that ranks 26th or worse in yards per rush allowed (4.8), rush stop win rate (28th), and 10-plus yard rushes allowed (40).

Spread: Browns +8.5 (-110) ★★★★

The NFL forced the Bills to move this home game to Detroit over concerns of the massive blizzard that will hit the Buffalo area this weekend. While many are projecting this to help the Bills offensively by playing in a dome, their home-field advantage is non-existent, and anything more than a touchdown is too much to lay with the favorites.

Josh Allen's 10 interceptions are the most in the NFL. He ranks dead-last among all quarterbacks with off-target interceptions (six) and red zone interceptions (three). Meanwhile, Buffalo ranks third-worst with 138 rushing yards allowed between the tackles since Week 8. Thus, a meeting with Nick Chubb and the Cleveland Browns is one of the worst possible matchups. To make matters worse, an illness ran through the Bills locker room this week, and the team could be without its two best linebackers, Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano.

We are making this wager at Caesars, one of the lone sportsbooks offering +8.5 on the underdogs, a much better value than the +8 or lower found at some of its competitors.

Total: Raiders-Broncos Under 41.5 (-107) ★★★★

Las Vegas is the only team in the NFL to allow 20-plus points in every game this season. However, we are still taking the Under in this divisional matchup, as the Denver Broncos have been the league's worst offensive club (14.6 ppg). Russell Wilson has one passing touchdown or fewer in seven of eight starts, and the Broncos are coming off a game against the Tennessee Titans where they had five punts and an interception on six second-half possessions.

Denver has held eight opponents to 19 or fewer points (most in the NFL). In addition, they have the means to negate Las Vegas's healthiest offensive weapon. Pat Surtain II is one of the best cover cornerbacks in the league and is a big reason the team has a league-best 174.4 passing yards allowed per game. Thus, we do not expect Davante Adams to come close to his 87.1 receiving yards per game average, and the Raiders are devoid of other offensive weapons with injuries to Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow.

Upset: Colts (+250) ★★★

The Philadelphia Eagles have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards between the tackles since Week 8 (136.7), and the team lacks defensive line depth with rookie Jordan Davis on IR (ankle). We look for a Indianapolis Colts team that is coming off season-highs in rushing yards (207) and yards per rush (6.9) to exploit that deficiency behind a rejuvenated Jonathan Taylor, who just completed his first game with 80-plus rushing yards or a touchdown since Week 1.

Philadelphia had more turnovers in its last game (four) than through the first eight weeks combined (three). In addition, Indianapolis' offensive ceiling is much higher with Matt Ryan back under center, as he is 4-3-1 as the Colts starting quarterback.

Prop: Commanders Over 2.5 team total touchdowns (+115) ★★★

The Houston Texans are on pace to allow more than 3,000 yards on the ground this season, which has not been done since the New Orleans Saints allowed 3,106 rushing yards for a season in 1980. The Commanders ran for 152 yards against the Eagles last week (the team's second-most this season), and its 49 rushing attempts were the team's most in the previous 20 seasons.

Thus, Washington has a formula for offensive success this week, and it could surpass this 2.5-touchdown total, all with rushing scores.

Where to Bet on the NFL

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NFL Week 11 best bets made on 11/18/22 at 6:16 a.m ET.

Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”