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Tonight's Bengals vs. Cowboys Prediction, Monday Night Football Picks & Odds

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 9, 2024 5:07 PM EST • 4 min 27 sec read.

Dallas Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle rushes for a touchdown against the New York Giants as we offer our Bengals vs. Cowboys prediction for MNF.
Dallas Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle rushes for a touchdown against the New York Giants. Photo by Andrew Dieb via Imagn Images

While neither team will be mistaken for being a Super Bowl odds favorite, we expect an explosive and entertaining offensive encounter for tonight's Monday Night Football between the Dallas Cowboys and Cincinnati Bengals (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN). 

The Cowboys enter the game on the back of their first two-game win streak of the season, while the Bengals have lost three in a row and are a dejected bunch.

Our Bengals vs. Cowboys prediction expects that narrative to continue as he backs the home underdogs to keep things close and cover. The below picks are part of our MNF coverage, including the Bengals vs. Cowboys MNF prop bets and Bengals vs. Cowboys early picks.

Updated Bengals vs. Cowboys betting info

The Monday Night Football odds opened with the Bengals as the 5.5-point favorites. At BetMGM, the Bengals opened as 6-point favorites, but the the spread has decreased to 5.5 hours before kickoff.

The total has increased from 47.5 to 49.5, with 70% of the money on the Over. The Cowboys are the +200 underdogs and those odds have remained unchanged throughout the week. 

 Brenden Schaeffer covered two of the most-bet player props, Cooper Rush and Joe Burrow, in his Bengals vs. Cowboys parlay picks. We also covered one of the long-shot Offensive Player of the Year odds players in our Ja'Marr Chase MNF player prop bets.

Best Bengals vs. Cowboys picks

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Cowboys +5.5 () vs. Bengals ⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Rico Dowdle Over 67.5 rushing yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Bengals vs. Cowboys against the spread prediction: Monday Night Football

Cowboys to cover the spread: +5.5 (-110) ⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

Cincinnati’s defense is historically bad

If one analyzed the Bengals solely from an offensive perspective, they might classify them as Super Bowl contenders.

Joe Burrow has a 30-5 TD-INT ratio this season, but the team is just 1-5 in games when he throws three or more touchdown passes. In addition, Cincinnati is the first team in NFL history to lose four games in a season while scoring 33-plus points.

To put it in perspective, the Bengals entered this week with four losses when scoring 30 or more points in a game, while the rest of the NFL had three such losses combined.

It is fair to question Cincinnati’s motivation level entering this game at 4-8 with next to no playoff hopes, which Connor Cooper discussed in our , especially since its defense just allowed a season-worst 7.9 yards per play and 35-plus points for the third time last week.

Cowboys' pass rush can affect Burrow

Joe Burrow’s 74 Total QBR on the road this season (min. three starts) ranks fifth. That is even more impressive considering the Bengals rank 26th in Pass Block Win Rate.

Cincinnati’s offensive line could be its undoing in this game, as Dallas has the league’s best pressure rate when Micah Parsons is healthy.

Positive regression coming for Dallas?

From 2021-23, Dallas produced a .706 win percentage, had a +34 turnover margin, and averaged 29.5 points per game. It ranked in the top two in the league in all those metrics in that span.

This year, Dallas has a .417 win percentage, a -7 TO margin, and averages 20.7 PPG. There is likely positive regression coming from a team that allows an NFL-worst 34.5 points per game at home, and the good news is we know how susceptible the Bengals' defense is.

Cincinnati is 1-7 SU in one-score games this year and has won three of its last 13 dating back to last year. That has me backing Dallas at BetMGM, one of the only top sports betting sites where one can find the home underdogs at the standard -110 juice.

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Bengals vs. Cowboys player prop

Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Player prop: Rico Dowdle Over 67.5 rushing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

If the Cowboys keep this game close, as we project, then Rico Dowdle should have little issue going over this projected total.

Dowdle has played at least 61% of the snaps over the last two games and handled at least 84.6% of the rush share in that span. He also had the third-most touches in the league in the previous two weeks and parlayed that into 95 or more scrimmage yards each game.

This is a four-star play, as Cincinnati ranks 26th in run defense DVOA, while Dowdle ranks 11th in explosive run rate since Week 9. The only thing keeping this from being a five-star play is the worry about game flow if the Bengals' offense gets them out to an early lead.

This O/U is up from 64.5 earlier in the week but is as high as 68.5 at FanDuel, so we are taking advantage of the best number and price at bet365. A $10 winning wager would pay out $19.09.

Our Rod Villagomez is also backing Dowdle in his first touchdown scorer predictions for Monday Night Football. And Andrew Brennan favors another Cowboys skill-position player to score in his anytime touchdown scorer predictions for MNF.

Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Bengals vs. Cowboys odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Monday Night Football game info

  • Matchup: Bengals vs. Cowboys
  • Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Where: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
  • How to watch: ESPN/ABC/ESPN+
  • Weather: Indoors
  • Favorite: Bengals -5.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

NFL betting odds pages

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”