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Bengals vs. Steelers Picks, Predictions Week 11: Tough Pittsburgh D May Cause Trouble For Cincinnati

Connor Cooper

Last Updated: November 20, 2022 3:55 AM EST • 2 min 37 sec read.

The Pittsburgh Steelers vie for a second upset of the Cincinnati Bengals this season. Here are our Bengals-Steelers Week 11 picks and predictions.

After a surprising Super Bowl run last year, the Bengals are just 5-4 and find themselves out of the playoff picture midway through the season. Cincinnati hopes to kickstart a strong second half when it returns from a bye to visit Pittsburgh, who upset the Bengals 23-20 in Week 1. See who we like in our Bengals/Steelers rematch Week 11 picks (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, BetMGM and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-5 star scale). ;

Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top picks for Week 11.

Bengals vs. Steelers Game Info

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 20, 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
  • Weather: 34 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 13-mph winds

Bengals vs. Steelers Odds

Bengals vs. Steelers Odds Analysis

The Bengals opened as six-point favorites, but much of the early money came in in support of the Steelers, prompting some sportsbooks to drop the point spread to Cincinnati -3.5. 

Despite the Over drawing much of the handle, the total has dropped from an open of 43 to 40.

Bengals vs. Steelers Picks

  • Spread: Steelers +4 (-110 via Caesars)
  • Over/Under: Under 41 (-110 via BetMGM)
  • Prop: Hayden Hurst Over 40.5 receiving yards (-120 via DraftKings)

Bengals vs. Steelers ATS Pick

Steelers +4 (-110) ★★★★

Now that Pittsburgh linebacker T.J. Watt is back in the lineup, the Steelers can resume wreaking havoc on opposing offenses. Pittsburgh smothered the New Orleans Saints last week in Watt’s return, allowing just 10 first downs, 29 rushing yards and 186 total yards while forcing a pair of turnovers.

Watt and the Steelers had their way with Cincinnati’s O-line when these teams met in Week 1, recording seven sacks and five takeaways. They should generate pressure once again on Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, whose worst games this year came against tough pass rushes.

Despite winning three of its five road matchups so far, Cincinnati struggles to win by margin as the visitors, claiming just one victory by more than this four-point spread. It’ll be even harder to open up a comfortable lead without top receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who is expected to miss his second straight game due to injury.

Bengals vs. Steelers O/U Pick

Under 41 (-110) ★★

Burrow and the Bengals offense have had their way with non-divisional opponents this season, but things have been much tougher against foes who know their scheme. Cincy is 0-3 this year against AFC North opponents Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cincinnati, averaging less than 17 points per game in each. By contrast, the Bengals scored at least 27 points in five of six games outside their division.

Pittsburgh has played low-scoring games ever since rookie Kenny Pickett became starting QB, going Under the total in four of his five full under center. Pickett didn’t commit a turnover last week against the Saints but was sacked six times, indicating he’d rather take a loss on a play than force the ball into coverage downfield.

Defensively, the Steelers have yet to allow more than 24 PPG this season at home, where they’ve held three of their last four opponents to 18 or less. If Chase doesn’t suit up, the Steelers can focus on stopping running back Joe Mixon — who scored five CDs in Cincy’s last game — and dare someone else to beat them. 

Bengals vs. Steelers Prop Pick

Hurst Over 40.5 receiving yards (-120)  ★★

Cincinnati’s tight end has gone over his receptions prop in seven of his last nine games and caught 18 of 20 targets over the past four weeks. Hurst should get steady work over the middle versus the Steelers, especially if Burrow needs to get rid of the ball quickly against Pittsburgh’s pass rush.

As good as the Steelers’ D is, they’ve been fairly average when it comes to slowing down opposing tight ends, allowing 4.6 completions per game to tight ends this season. One of Hurst’s most productive games this year came against the Steelers in Week 1, when he hauled in five balls for 46 yards.

Where to Bet on Bengals vs. Steelers Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

Bengals-Steelers picks made 11/18/2022 at 10:20 a.m. ET

Written By:
Connor Cooper
Connor Cooper has written about sports in various capacities for more than 20 years, including as a newspaper reporter, sports handicapper, and betting analyst. He originates hockey plays every day throughout the NHL season, regularly bets his own opinions on NFL and college football, and relies on handicappers he trusts to find daily action in basketball, baseball, soccer, tennis, and golf. A diehard Maple Leafs and Blue Jays fan growing up in the Toronto area, Connor quickly shed all his allegiances once he realized that making money betting on sports was much more fun than cheering for his favorite team. Connor won’t hesitate to bet on — or against — anybody if that’s where the value lies. In addition to analyzing recent and season-long statistics, Connor always looks to account for the human element when breaking down games, weighing situational and motivational factors into his handicapping process. He's also a big believer in finding creative ways to generate more value, constantly scouring BetMGM, Caesar, FanDuel, and other regulated sportsbooks' derivative markets such as team totals, alternate lines, and player props.