Bears vs. Packers Player Prop Picks & Touchdown Prediction

Even with a playoff spot already locked up, the Green Bay Packers plan to play their starters in Sunday’s regular-season finale versus the Chicago Bears. Kickoff from Lambeau Field is set for 1 p.m. ET (FOX).

Oddsmakers like Green Bay’s chances of building momentum going into the postseason, so they installed the Packers as early 10-point favorites to beat Chicago for the 12th straight time. That should lead to plenty of early work for running back Josh Jacobs.

That's just one of the angles I'm looking at in my Bears vs Packers player prop picks & touchdown prediction for Week 18 as we continue our Week 18 NFL predictions.  

Bears vs. Packers NFL player prop picks: Sunday

Odds as of Friday and subject to change.

• Josh Jacobs touchdown prediction: First touchdown scorer () ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Caleb Williams longest completion Under 31.5 yards () ⭐⭐⭐
• D’Andre Swift Under 47.5 rushing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

NFL picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds ;tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Bears vs. Packers touchdown prediction

Josh Jacobs First Touchdown (+375) ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +375 via Caesars | Implied probability: 21.1%

After scoring just one touchdown in his first six games as a Packer, Jacobs has become nearly automatic to find the end zone in the second half of the season. He’s run for at least one TD in each of his last seven games — tying a franchise record for the most consecutive games with a rushing touchdown — and scored 11 times during that stretch.

If Jacobs is going to go into Green Bay’s record books this week, there’s a strong chance he does it early. The Packers have scored on 45% of their first-quarter drives this year (the second-highest percentage in the NFL), while Chicago has allowed scores on 43.2% of opponents’ first-quarter possessions.

With some of our best sports betting apps pricing Jacobs in the -200 range to score a touchdown this week, I’d much rather take my chances at a +375 return on Jacobs breaking the ice on Sunday. We also avoid the potential of Green Bay sitting Jacobs in the second half if this game is out of reach.

Best Bears vs. Packers prop picks

Caleb Williams Longest Completion Under 31.5 Yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.4%

It’s no secret that Williams hasn’t had much time to survey the field this season behind a Chicago offensive line that has allowed him to be sacked a league-high 67 times.

That lack of protection is reflected by Chicago’s inability to create explosive plays in the passing game. Williams has not completed a pass of more than 31 yards in six of his last eight games and nine of 12.

On the other side of the ball, Green Bay has excelled all year at shutting down the big pass play. In fact, the Pack has allowed just one completion of 40 or more yards on 535 opposition pass attempts this year.

D’Andre Swift Under 47.5 Rushing Yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 53.5%

Swift’s production has dipped since the Bears fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron in mid-November, with Chicago’s fifth-year back managing less than 40 rushing yards in four of his last six games.

It should be tough sledding for Swift once again against a Packers defense that rates fifth in the league in EPA per play versus the run, especially behind Chicago’s banged-up offensive line. Green Bay should be particularly focused on shutting down Swift after he gained 71 rushing yards against the Pack earlier this season, the lone time in seven career meetings that Swift has rushed for more than 37 versus Green Bay.

Bears vs. Packers game info

• When: Sunday, Jan. 5
• Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
• Where: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, Wisc.)
• How to watch: FOX
• Weather: 20 degrees, 3% chance of precipitation, 9 mph winds ENE
• Favorite: Packers (-10 via Caesars)

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