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Bears vs. Lions Early Picks, Predictions & Odds for Thanksgiving Week 13

Mike Spector

Last Updated: November 25, 2024 8:00 AM EST • 3 min 23 sec read.

Detroit Lions linebacker Jack Campbell (46), cornerback Amik Robertson (21) and linebacker Trevor Nowaske (53) react as we offer our Bears vs. Lions early picks, predictions, and odds for Thanksgiving to kick off NFL Week 13 at Ford Field.
Detroit Lions linebacker Jack Campbell (46), cornerback Amik Robertson (21) and linebacker Trevor Nowaske (53) react. Photo by Grace Hollars / IndyStar via Imagn Images.

The Detroit Lions are double-digit home favorites as they play their annual home Thanksgiving Day game with the NFC North rival Chicago Bears paying a visit to Ford Field.

The Lions (10-1) are off to the best start since 1934 and enter Week 13 as the Super Bowl odds favorites, while the Bears (4-7) look to snap a five-game losing streak with three of those five games coming down to the final play.

Our Bears vs. Lions early picks and odds recognize Detroit as a rightful double-digit favorite but believe the best value lies in the game’s total. We broke down the best way to bet the spread in our Bears vs. Lions prediction.

My early Bears vs. Lions prediction: Under 49

NFL picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Prediction: Under 49

Best odds: | Implied probability: 52.38%

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In each of Detroit’s last two home games, it went over this projected total all by itself, scoring 52 points each in wins against the Titans and Jaguars.

But with this game being on a short week and against a division rival that knows its offense well, I am making the contrarian play and backing the Under.

Detroit’s defense has been dominant of late, holding opponents to six or fewer points in back-to-back games for the first time since 1983.

Considering Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams went four consecutive games without a touchdown pass prior to last week, Chicago does not exactly inspire confidence to do its part in scoring points.

Don't miss our guide for how to bet on NFL or this week's best sportsbook promos.

Bears vs. Lions live odds

See the NFL odds from our best NFL betting sites for every Week 13 game.

Moneyline

  • Lions best odds: -575 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 85.19%
  • Bears best odds: +450 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 18.18%

Detroit is unsurprisingly the biggest NFC favorite in Week 13, as it has already won 10-plus games in consecutive seasons for the first time in franchise history.

Chicago is off to an 0-2 start in the division for the third straight season, and I expect the Lions to be one of the most utilized teams in bettors’ moneyline parlays.

That will have the best sports betting apps likely rooting hard for a Bears upset, while the moneyline odds should move in Detroit’s favor before Thursday.

Spread

  • Lions best odds: -10.5 (-110) via FanDuel
  • Bears best odds: +10.5 (-105) via BetMGM

All of the best sportsbooks are in unison with the point spread of -10.5, and BetMGM is the only one not charging the standard -110 odds on both sides.

Even in Detroit’s poor years, it was always a popular public play on Thanksgiving, as bettors are familiar with the tradition of the Lions hosting the first game on the holiday.

If the line ever drops to the key number of -10, sportsbooks would likely get bombarded with Lions money. Thus, this line is more likely to tick up than down. 

Furthering that case is the fact that Detroit is an NFL-best 9-2 ATS this season.

Over/Under

  • Over best odds: 48 (-110) via DraftKings
  • Under best odds: 49 (-110) via bet365

When the lines first opened, Caesars and bet365 were the only two sportsbooks that had an O/U at 49, while the rest of their competitors were at 48 or 48.5. Since then, Caesars has lowered a half-point to 48.5, leaving bet365 as the only shop offering a total of 49.

The quick line movement down to 48.5 at Caesars suggests the 49 at bet365 is not likely to last long. This has the feel that sharps will support the Under given the divisional familiarity and the game being played on a short week, while the public will back the Over given Detroit’s two 52-point outbursts in its last two home games.

The Bears are the third-most profitable Under team this season, cashing it in seven of their 11 games. Detroit’s O/U record is 5-5-1.

How to watch Bears vs. Lions

  • When: Thursday, Nov. 28
  • Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Ford Field (Detroit, Mich.)
  • How to watch: CBS
  • Weather: Indoors
  • Favorite: Lions -10.5 (-115 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”