Machibet777 CasinoBears vs. Falcons Picks, Predictions Week 11: Heater Continues for Fields in Hotlanta

The Chicago Bears and quarterback Justin Fields visit the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium for Sunday’s Week 11 clash. Let's examine the matchup with our Bears-Falcons picks

Fields has been showcasing the game-breaking ability that made him a first-round selection in the 2021 NFL Draft. He’s posted video-game-like numbers over the past four weeks while entering the franchise quarterback conversation among both Chicago's fan base and football pundits.

Even with all of Fields’ success, Chicago has still lost three consecutive games to dip to 3-7 on the season. The Bears now play a road game against the 4-6 Falcons, and Atlanta boasts a 3-2 home record.

Plus, the Falcons still hold playoff aspirations and are just one game back in the NFC South.

Here are our Week 11 picks for the Bears-Falcons game (odds via BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our picks roundup, against-the-spread picks power rankings, upset picks, teaser picks, NFL best bets, and trends to know.

Bears vs. Falcons Game Info

Date: Sunday, Nov. 20, 1 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Weather: Indoors

Bears vs. Falcons Odds

Bears vs. Falcons Odds Analysis

The lookahead spread showed the Falcons as -4 favorites through DraftKings Sportsbook. However, 82% of the cash and 79% of the tickets are on the Bears. The Falcons are now trading as -3 favorites at most shops.

This total has been hovering around 49 to 50 all week. The Over is attracting 62% of the handle on 71% of the tickets. The total is 49 at most shops, with BetMGM and FanDuel offering 49.5.

Bears vs. Falcons Picks

Bears vs. Falcons ATS Pick

Bears +3 (-105) ★★★

Timing is everything in sports betting, and I loved the Bears receiving the hook with the +3.5 spread available Thursday morning through both BetMGM and DraftKings.

Still, the Atlanta Falcons have failed to cover in four straight games. They also rank 27th in offensive DVOA and 29th in defensive DVOA during that four-game stretch. As a result, I value the Bears and the points.

With Atlanta grading second-lowest in pass rush through Pro Football Focus and 22nd in team pass rush win rate, expect Bears quarterback Justin Fields to build on his improved play. Fields ranks eighth in EPA per play over his past four games, which has catapulted Chicago to the fifth-highest offensive DVOA during his breakout stretch.

Chicago is a mess defensively, but I’ll side with the better quarterback and the points. Atlanta overachieved to start the season, and the betting market and community is still overvaluing the Falcons.

Bears vs. Falcons O/U Pick

Under 49.5 (-110) ★★★

This is the highest total of the season for both the Bears and Falcons, and the Over has hit in each of Chicago's past four games. Both teams also field the worst statistical defenses in the league, and there’s ample justification for the total climbing from the 48.5 lookahead line via DraftKings.

I envision both the Bears and Falcons leaning on their rushing attacks and sustaining long, clock-eating drives. Both teams boast top-10 ranks in rush DVOA, EPA per rush, and run grades, according to PFF.

With that in mind, it’ll only take a few touchdown opportunities turning into field goals or worse for this total to become out of reach. The Bears and Falcons also respectively rank 32nd and 31st in pass attempts per game.

Bears vs. Falcons Prop Pick

Fields Over 100 rushing yards + 1 rushing TD (+600) ★★

This is a value recommendation, as the same prebuilt prop is trading at just +450 through DraftKings. It might only take one game-breaking rush for Fields to be positioned to clear both benchmarks, too.

Fields has produced a rushing touchdown in four consecutive games, and he’s racked up an eye-popping 290 rushing yards over the past two weeks. This is a favorable matchup for him to further pad his numbers.

The Falcons have surrendered the fifth-most rushing scores in 2022, giving up 13 through 10 games. Atlanta also ranks 25th in rush defense DVOA while posting the seventh-highest EPA per rush.

Where to Bet on Bears-Falcons Picks

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Bears-Falcons picks made 11/17/2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET.

Written By:
Neil Parker

A lifelong Cowboys, Cubs, Maple Leafs and Gators supporter, Neil has been covering sports in print and online since 2011. His past stops include USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook and RotoWire among others. He's a graduate of St. Thomas University and Acadia University and spends ample time at KenWo Golf Club.