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Baker Mayfield MNF Player Prop Bets: Touchdown Picks & Odds

Philip Wood

Last Updated: October 21, 2024 11:20 AM EDT • 3 min 35 sec read.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield warms up before a game against the New Orleans Saints at Caesars Superdome as we look at our Baker Mayfield MNF Player Prop Bets.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield warms up before a game against the New Orleans Saints at Caesars Superdome. Photo by Matthew Hinton/Imagn Images.

Baker Mayfield will look to add to his league-leading 15 touchdown passes as his Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on the Baltimore Ravens on Monday Night Football. He'll face a Baltimore team that sits second in the Super Bowl odds.

The latest Monday Night Football odds suggest that the Buccaneers will be playing from behind most of the game. With that in mind, and considering how much success he’s already been enjoying this season, are the best Baker Mayfield MNF player prop bets primarily Overs?

Despite not playing his Week 7 game yet, Mayfield is tied for the league lead in touchdown passes entering Monday night. He’s also thrown for 1,489 yards, and tonight he gets to take on one of the NFL's worst pass defenses.

Baker Mayfield prop predictions for Monday Night Football

  • Baker Mayfield touchdown pick: Over 1.5 touchdown passes () ⭐⭐⭐
  • Baker Mayfield Over 253.5 passing yards (-113 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Baker Mayfield Over 23.5 completions (-120 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

NFL odds as of Monday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

Baker Mayfield touchdown pick vs. Ravens

Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 touchdown passes (-102) ⭐⭐⭐

Mayfield has thrown at least two touchdown passes in three consecutive games and four of his six contests this season. The two teams he didn’t throw multiple touchdown passes against are currently ranked among the top five in the league in passing touchdowns allowed.

Meanwhile, the Ravens have been struggling mightily against the pass. They’re allowing 1.8 passing touchdowns per game, which is fourth-worst in the league. 

The price for this prop makes it seem as though oddsmakers are laying a trap for bettors. However, FanDuel is offering serious outlier odds. The next best price available is -115, which implies a 53.49% chance of this Over hitting. BetMGM is even setting the Over set at -125.

Our Mike Spector thinks Mayfield's scoring contributions will help his team cover the spread as part of his Ravens vs. Buccaneers prediction. He also believes the opposing quarterback will do plenty of scoring in his Lamar Jackson MNF player prop bets.

Best odds: -102 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 50.49%

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Baker Mayfield player props

NFL picks made Monday; odds subject to change.

Baker Mayfield Over 253.5 passing yards (-113) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

For some reason, FanDuel doesn’t like this matchup for Mayfield. That book is listing his passing total at 253.5 yards, the lowest among our best sportsbooks. FanDuel is also posting the second-best price on his Over.

When I made my best Ravens vs. Buccaneers MNF prop bets, this total and price was exactly where it is now. The Ravens enter Monday night’s game allowing the most passing yards per contest in the league this season. They’ve allowed five of the six quarterbacks they’ve faced to throw for at least 260 yards.

Mayfield has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in three games this year, but each of those performances came against solid defenses.

The Ravens’ defense has been the opposite, and if Baltimore gets out to a lead like it's done so many times this season, Mayfield will end up clearing this number easily. The Ravens don’t defend well against quarterbacks when playing with the lead.

Best odds: -113 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.05%

Baker Mayfield Over 23.5 completions (-120 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Mayfield has completed at least 24 passes in four of his five games this season. That includes every time he’s thrown for at least 250 yards.

With the Bucs likely to be playing from behind, it’s tempting to take the Over on Mayfield’s passing attempts. However, Mayfield is completing 70.9% of his passes this season, and he’s only attempted 35-plus attempts twice this year. The Ravens are allowing opponents to complete 67.12% of their throws.

The price of this prop ranges from -120 to -140 at our best sports betting sites. The latter implies that Mayfield holds nearly a 60% chance of hitting this Over. So getting in at -120 is a bit of a steal.

Still, this is only a three-star play in case Mayfield hits some deep shots that shorten his drives against a defense allowing 11.1 yards per completion.

Best odds: -120 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.55%

Ravens vs. Buccaneers odds

Monday Night Football game info

  • Matchup: Ravens vs. Buccaneers
  • Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
  • How to watch: ESPN/ABC/ESPN+
  • Weather: 79 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 10-mph NE
  • Favorite: Ravens -3.5 ()

NFL betting odds pages

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.