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Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions Thanksgiving: Thursday's Best TD Odds & Picks

Andrew Brennan

Last Updated: November 27, 2024 1:21 PM EST • 3 min 40 sec read.

Miami Dolphins tight end Jonnu Smith looks on from the field after the game against the Las Vegas Raiders as we look at our anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Thanksgiving.
Miami Dolphins tight end Jonnu Smith looks on from the field after the game against the Las Vegas Raiders. Photo by Sam Navarro/Imagn Images.

We're being spoiled on Thursday, as football fans and bettors are treated to a trio of NFL Thanksgiving games beginning at 12:30 p.m. ET.

The NFL action kicks off right around lunchtime when the Detroit Lions host the Chicago Bears. The first of our anytime touchdown scorer predictions comes from that game, as we're targeting a running back who's trading at a long price due to his recent lack of goal-line usage.

Then we head to Dallas, where the Cowboys will host the New York Giants at 4:30 p.m. ET. There's nothing quite like enjoying your Thanksgiving dinner while watching Cooper Rush square off against Drew Lock - or maybe it'll be Tim Boyle, who knows. Fortunately, we're bringing you a tasty TD prop from that lackluster affair.

The night is capped off with a showdown between the Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers. Though our Thursday Night Football odds are showing the Packers as 3.5-point favorites, we like a Dolphins player for our best TD bet.

We've put together so much more betting content as part of our NFL Week 13 predictions, so be sure to check it all out to maximize your potential winnings! And if you're interested only in Thursday's action, head to our NFL Thanksgiving picks page.

Anytime touchdown scorer picks: Thanksgiving

Our NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the latest odds among the legal sportsbooks in your region on each of these picks.

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Giants vs. Cowboys anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Rico Dowdle, Cowboys , RB ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds:  | Implied probability: 47.62%

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Our Giants vs. Cowboys prediction expects a squeaky wheel game for New York's rookie wide receiver, but I'm much more interested in the opposing team's rushing attack.

Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle tied a season high last week with 22 touches, turning that into 98 total yards. I expect he'll receive a similar workload in Week 13 against a team that's allowed more than 100 rushing yards to opposing running backs in seven games this season.

This price is a good way to illustrate just how important of a role narrative plays.

Dowdle is projected for 0.51 TDs, and his volume has been a bit inconsistent throughout the year. However, his TD prop is trading at +110 compared to Swift's +180.

We're still getting good value, but it's not quite in four-star territory like our previous pick. Dowdle is now essentially a coin flip to score thanks to his growing role in this offense despite recording only 12 touches in Week 11.

For a further comparison, Johnson is trading at around +250 to score for the Bears. Meanwhile, Dowdle's backup Ezekiel Elliot (who is also used around the goal line occasionally) is closer to +350.

In the end, both Dowdle and Swift are almost equally as likely to score based on their projections. Accordingly, we're fading Cowboys quarterback Cooper Rush in our Giants vs. Cowboys player props.

Dolphins vs. Packers anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Jonnu Smith, Dolphins, TE ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +250 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 28.57%

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In a game featuring star offensive players such as DeVon Achane, Josh Jacobs, Tyreek Hill, Jayden Reed, and Jaylen Waddle, it's tight end Jonnu Smith who serves as our TD bet and one of our first touchdown scorer predictions for Thanksgiving.

Simply put, Smith is the alpha receiver in this Dolphins offense. He's racked up 19 targets in the last two games. Some believed his role would diminish when Tua Tagovailoa returned, but it's actually been growing.

Additionally, Smith has scored three TDs in those last two contests, and his projection for Thursday night is a solid 0.31.

I considered going with Packers tight end Tucker Kraft for this pick, as we did in our Dolphins vs. Packers prediction. Kraft and Smith are about equally as likely to score, so it's worth backing either one at this price.

Working in Smith's favor is that the Packers rank among the bottom 10 this year in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, and a banged-up George Kittle most recently torched them just last week. We're expecting a similar performance as part of our Dolphins vs. Packers player props.

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Written By:
Andrew Brennan
Andrew Brennan is a publishing editor for Sportsbook Review. He also heads the website’s MLB coverage, from the various futures markets to daily picks. Andrew believes a math-based approach is the best way to enjoy long-term success in sports betting, and he’s spent the better part of the last year fine-tuning his own process for MLB, NBA, and NFL picks. Andrew uses eight different sportsbooks to find the best odds available and various projection models to gather as much information as he can. His most used sportsbooks are bet365, FanDuel, and theScore Bet. When it comes to daily projection models, he regularly references NumberFire across all sports, as it’s one of the best free tools available. In terms of which daily markets Andrew attacks, he almost exclusively bets on pitcher strikeouts for baseball. When the winter rolls around, you’ll see him providing more variety when it comes to the NBA (points, assists, rebounds) and NFL (almost any offensive-based player prop). He used these tools to go +150 units in 2023. Andrew is also a passionate fantasy sports player. He’s played fantasy football, fantasy Premier League, and fantasy baseball for the last decade. He graduated from Durham College with his diploma in journalism after earning his degree in law from Carleton University. He’s worked in sports media since early 2017, first contributing at FanSided before moving to theScore. He joined SBR in 2022.