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NFL Against the Spread Picks Power Rankings: Our Top 10 ATS Bets and Predictions for Week 17

Jon Metler

Last Updated: December 28, 2022 4:20 AM EST • 5 min 27 sec read.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have taken over first place in the AFC South but in Week 17, they'll face a team that has proven difficult for them in the past. Our NFL power rankings look at our favorite point spread picks for Week 17 using the best NFL odds. 

In Brian Daboll's first season as head coach, the New York Giants are on the verge of making the playoffs, but they must defeat the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. When quarterback Nick Foles and Co. visit MetLife Stadium, who should we be backing with the Giants trading as 3.5-point favorites? 

Here are the power rankings of my favorite point-spread picks for Week 17 of the NFL season (odds via our top-rated sportsbooks; lines as of Monday, Dec. 26 at 2:30 p.m. ET).

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Check out all of our top NFL picks for Week 17!  

NFL ATS Picks Power Rankings for Week 17

10. Broncos +13.5 (-110 via PointsBet) at Chiefs

In reviewing my numbers, I noticed that I had a slight edge on the Denver Broncos' side of the spread and my first thought was, "No." Regardless of the numbers, this team has quit and I'm not interested in betting on the Broncos. Once head coach Nathaniel Hackett was fired, I changed my mind, since everyone is now competing for a job next season.

In Week 17, I make the Kansas City Chiefs 12-point favorites over the Broncos. I've priced this assuming Russell Wilson will be the Broncos' starting quarterback. Getting the Broncos at +14 or even +14.5 instead of +13.5 would boost the value of this wager significantly. 

9. Bengals +1.5 (-115 via FanDuel) vs. Bills

After winning seven consecutive games, the Cincinnati Bengals will be without left tackle La'el Collins for the remainder of the season due to an ACL injury. While this is a substantial blow to the Bengals' offensive line, the team's coaching staff knows how to make an offensive game plan with a depleted offensive line. 

In this matchup between the Bengals and Buffalo Bills, I made the line a pick'em. The difference between my number and the market is 1.5 points, but in the context of the numbers involved, it's not particularly significant. In the Week 17 power rankings, the Bengals are ninth due to this reason.

8. Patriots +1.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots both appear to be fading down the stretch, but fortunately for both franchises, someone has to win this game, and it'll greatly help either team make the playoffs. Should we back the quarterback who threw a dirty block against Eli Apple or ? Maybe we'll be lucky and Bailey Zappe will be the starter for the Patriots. 

This line is in a similar position to the Bengals' Week 17 spread. I make this game a pick'em between the Dolphins and Patriots, so we have a slight edge with New England, but the difference between +1.5 and a pick'em is very minimal. 

7. Saints +7 (-115 via BetMGM) at Eagles

The New Orleans Saints picked up a huge road victory over the Cleveland Browns in Week 16 in order to remain in contention for the NFC South title. Philadelphia Eagles representatives insist that quarterback Jalen Hurts should be ready for this game, but why would they even attempt to force the issue here? Since the Eagles hold a tiebreaker over the Minnesota Vikings, they're all but assured of securing the No. 1 seed in the NFC. As a backup quarterback, Gardner Minshew is more than capable, which is why I believe Hurts will be given more rest than needed. 

I'm buying the Saints at +7 since once Minshew is named the starting quarterback, the line could drop to Eagles -4 or -4.5. Betting on the Saints at +7 should put you in a strong position come Sunday if Minshew is named the starter. 

6. Browns +2.5 (-110 via FanDuel) at Commanders

I believe the Washington Commanders made a big mistake by benching Taylor Heinicke for Carson Wentz in Week 16, which could lead to issues within the locker room. Heinicke isn't a perfect quarterback, but he wins and his teammates play hard for him. 

It would be nice to buy this at Cleveland Browns +3, but the best number I'm seeing is Browns +2.5 via FanDuel. It's only a small difference in the numbers, as I make the Commanders 1-point favorites over the Browns; if you're able to snag a line of +3, this bet would rank much higher. 

5. Packers -3 (-112 via FanDuel) vs. Vikings

We have officially reached the point in the season where Aaron Rodgers leads the Green Bay Packers back into the playoff picture. The Vikings would like nothing more than to prevent this from occurring. 

I'm aware of both teams' records, but I believe the Packers are the rightful favorites in this matchup. I actually have the Packers as 3.5-point favorites, which is why I'm inclined to back them at -3. When you're laying -3 versus -3.5, the hook makes a big difference. 

4. Jaguars -4 (-110 via PointsBet) at Texans

Despite covering the spread against the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys, and winning outright against the Tennessee Titans over the last few weeks, it's now time for the Houston Texans to get serious. If you're the Texans, you cannot screw up this epic tank job for a quarterback in the 2023 NFL Draft. The Chicago Bears would draft first overall, not the Texans if Houston were to win one more game.

In Week 17, I make the Jacksonville Jaguars 6-point favorites over the Texans, which actually was the spread on the look-ahead line. My plan is to buy the Jaguars at -4 before they move to -4.5, which has already occurred at a couple of sportsbooks. 

3. 49ers -5 (-110 via DraftKings) at Raiders

In Week 16, the San Francisco 49ers held the No. 1 spot in our power rankings, and I believe they continue to be undervalued despite the fact that they're a Super Bowl caliber team. I believe the problem is that quarterback Brock Purdy's power rating has not yet caught up with the level at which he is playing.

I make the 49ers 7-point favorites over the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 17, which is a significant difference because I can buy them below the key number of -7 at -5. Only DraftKings is offering the 49ers at -5, whereas all other sportsbooks have the line at -5.5. 

2. Falcons -3.5 (-110 via Caesars) vs. Cardinals

At first glance, I was surprised that the Atlanta Falcons were laying 3.5 points against the Arizona Cardinals, but as I dug deeper into the numbers, I became more confident. I have the Falcons' Over 5.5 wins on the season and I'm up against it with two weeks left after they lost four games in a row, but we have hope in Week 17. 

I make the Falcons 5-point favorites over the Cardinals, and I believe the line will gradually move in favor of Atlanta throughout the week. While they're still available below the key numbers of -4 and -4.5, I'm very interested in purchasing the Falcons.

1.  Giants -3.5 (-105 via FanDuel) vs. Colts

I may be off on how I have the Indianapolis Colts power rated, but I believe they're in full tank mode at this point and ready to end the season. For the second time in 2022, the Colts benched quarterback Matt Ryan and are now starting Nick Foles under center. As well as the quarterback change, the team's best offensive weapon, running back Jonathan Taylor, is out for the season due to injury. 

In Week 17, I make the Giants 5.5-point favorites over the Colts, and aside from the numbers, the Giants have a lot more to play for at this point in the season. As the week progresses, I anticipate that the line will move toward the Giants and close around -4 or -4.5.

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NFL against-the-spread picks made 12/26/2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Written By:
Jon Metler
Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at 520ccc.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.