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NFL Against the Spread Picks Power Rankings: Our Top 10 ATS Bets and Predictions for Week 16

Jon Metler

Last Updated: January 1, 0001 12:00 AM EST • 6 min 8 sec read.

Don't look now, but the Jacksonville Jaguars are closing in on first place in the AFC South. Can Doug Pederson lead the Jaguars to the playoffs in his first season as head coach? Our NFL power rankings look at our favorite point spreads for Week 16.

If you thought the Minnesota Vikings coming back from being down 33-0 at halftime would be the most bizarre thing in Week 15, you were wrong. No one had Jakobi Meyers' backwards lateral to Chandler Jones for the walk-off touchdown on their bingo card:

Now that we're in the heart of the NFL playoff race, who are we backing this week on the spread?

Here are the power rankings of my favorite point-spread picks for Week 16 of the NFL season (odds via our top-rated sportsbooks; lines as of Monday, Dec. 20 at 9:30 a.m. ET).

Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top NFL picks for Week 15.  

NFL ATS Picks Power Rankings for Week 16

10. Titans -5 (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Texans

With speculation rampant that Ryan Tannehill will miss the game with an ankle injury, the spread has moved from Tennessee -7 down to -5. With the Houston Texans covering back-to-back spreads against the Cowboys and Chiefs, as well as the Titans sliding and Tannehill's injury, I expect there to be no shortage of Texans money this week.

I ranked this spread at No. 10 because I believe you will be able to buy a better price on the Titans later in the week than the -5 I'm seeing at this time. I believe the Titans should be 5.5-point favorites over the Texans with Malik Willis at quarterback. I had this priced at Titans -10 with Tannehill as the starting quarterback, which means there is a 4.5-point drop when Willis takes over. 

9. Cardinals +6.5 (-107 via PointsBet) vs. Buccaneers

Guilty as charged! It appears that Tampa Bay Buccaneers are just not any good, and that we have consistently overvalued them in our power ratings. I keep expecting them to make a breakthrough, but we have yet to see it, and my Super Bowl futures on the Buccaneers look like actual garbage.

In the wake of their epic collapse against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 15, I thought we might be able to find value on the Buccaneers side of the spread this week. I was wrong: we still have a better edge with the Arizona Cardinals catching 6.5 points. Even with Kyler Murray out for the season, I make the Buccaneers a five-point favorite over the Cardinals. 

8. Bears +9 (-107 via PointsBet) vs. Bills

The Chicago Bears took on the mighty Philadelphia Eagles in Week 15 – and although they didn't win, they did get the money on the spread, which is all that matters to us. Justin Fields surpassed 1,000 rushing yards for the season against the Eagles, and he has a chance to surpass Lamar Jackson's single-season rushing record for a quarterback. 

We hold a two-point edge in the numbers, as PointsBet trades the Buffalo Bills as a 9-point favorite over the Bears, while I'm making the Bills a 7-point favorite. There is no chance that the Bears will win this game, but Fields has become such a nightmare for opposing defenses that I believe they can at least sneak out a cover. 

7. Chiefs -9 (-107 via PointsBet) vs. Seahawks

After being caught napping last week by the Houston Texans, I expect we will see a much different performance from the Kansas City Chiefs this week when the team returns home to Arrowhead. I'm convinced that the Seattle Seahawks are regressing faster than their power ratings, which is why I prefer to back the Chiefs in this spot. 

I make the Chiefs a 10.5-point favorite over the Seahawks, and at the current line of Chiefs -9 (-107) there is an excellent opportunity for price shopping. PointsBet not only offers the lowest juice at -107, but it also has the lowest spread at -9, while some shops, such as Circa, trade at Chiefs -10. It would be a good idea to purchase this as soon as possible before the PointsBet line moves and the value is squeezed out.

6. Jaguars +1 (-110 via BetMGM) at Jets

As the Jacksonville bandwagon fills up, we're still seeing value on the Jaguars' side of the spread as a result of the injury to New York Jets quarterback Mike White. Trevor Lawrence has made tremendous progress under Doug Pederson in his second NFL season and has led the Jaguars to wins in three of their last four games. As a result, Jacksonville is now in the thick of the AFC South divisional race and have a realistic chance of making the playoffs.

I would have a different opinion of this game if White had been the starting quarterback, but with Zach Wilson scheduled to make yet another start for the Jets, I favor the Jaguars in this matchup. With Wilson at the helm, I make the Jaguars a 1.5-point favorites over the Jets. I believe the Jaguars will be trading as the favorites across the board In the lead-up to Thursday.

5. Steelers -3 (+100 via PointsBet) vs. Raiders

Kenny Pickett has cleared the concussion protocol and is expected to start in Week 16 for Pittsburgh. I can only hope the Steelers don't throw any backwards laterals to Chandler Jones when these two teams meet on Sunday.

In my opinion, the Steelers are a 4-point favorite over the Raiders with Pickett as the starting quarterback. Only one point separates the Steelers' market price from my price, but that one point has a significant impact since it involves key numbers.

The Steelers are available via FanDuel at -2.5 (-120), which takes you off the key number of three points, but the 20 cents of juice is not worth it when you are able to buy the Steelers at -3 (+100) via PointsBet. 

4. Giants +3.5 (-115 via BetMGM) at Vikings

The New York Giants finally showed some life in Week 15, defeating the Washington Commanders on the road as a 4-point underdog. The Minnesota Vikings, on the other hand, recently completed the largest comeback in NFL history by defeating the Indianapolis Colts 39-36 after trailing 33-0 at halftime. 

This wager requires price shopping because we're seeing different spreads and juices, and the spread is trading in the middle of some key numbers. I make the Vikings a 2.5-point favorite, so you should look to buy the Giants at the key numbers of +3 or +3.5.

It's understandable if you want the hook, but don't pay more than -119 for +3.5, as long as there is a +3 (+100) available at PointsBet and Caesars. I'm betting the Giants +3.5 at BetMGM due to the -115 juice. In the event that the only Giants +3.5 available on the market is the price we're seeing at DraftKings, which is Giants +3.5 (-125), the better line would be the +3 (+100) at Caesars and PointsBet. 

3. Eagles +6 (-107 via PointsBet) at Cowboys

When this spread opened, the Dallas Cowboys traded as a 1-point home favorite against the Philadelphia Eagles. After it was announced that Jalen Hurts would miss the game on Monday, the number moved significantly. Immediately, the Cowboys became a 6-point favorite. 

Firstly, I don't believe there is a five-point difference between Hurts and backup quarterback Gardner Minshew, who is arguably the best backup quarterback in the NFL. I make the Cowboys a 4.5-point favorite over the Eagles with Minshew starting, so I'm looking to capitalize on the market's overreaction to Hurts' injury. As well, it's difficult to handicap human emotions, and Minshew should be playing with a heavy heart following the passing of his collegiate coach Mike Leach. 

2. Lions -2.5 (-107 via PointsBet) at Panthers

Forward down the field! At one time, the Detroit Lions were 1-6 on the season, but they're now 7-7, in the middle of the NFC playoff race, and they've covered seven straight spreads. As the Lions are on such a heater, you would expect that the Panthers side of the spread would offer more value, but that's not the case. 

While I make the Lions a 4-point favorite over the Panthers on the road, it's an important 1.5-point difference from where the market has the Lions trading. The difference between -2.5 and -4 when betting on the NFL is significant since it involves several key numbers. If PointsBet continues to offer this spread under the key number of three points and with such low juice (-107), I recommend that you take advantage of it as soon as possible. 

1.  49ers -7 (-110 via Caesars) vs. Commanders

In Week 16, the San Francisco 49ers will have a huge rest advantage over the Commanders, since the 49ers played on Thursday Night Football in Week 15 while the Commanders played on Sunday Night Football. Besides receiving less rest and preparation time, the Commanders will also travel to the West Coast, and there has been speculation that they may switch back to Carson Wentz at quarterback. 

I make the 49ers a 9.5-point favorite over the Commanders in Week 15, and to maximize the value of this wager, you should bet on the 49ers while they're still a 7-point favorite. We have seen some sportsbooks, such as FanDuel and BetMGM, move the 49ers to 7.5. 

Here are our Best NFL Betting Sites:

NFL against-the-spread picks made 12/20/2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET.

Written By:
Jon Metler
Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at 520ccc.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.