Mcb777 AffiliateNFL Against the Spread Picks Power Rankings: Our Top 10 ATS Bets and Predictions for Week 11

NFL ATS power rankings — Our NFL power rankings order teams by who's most likely to cover the spread.

When the Minnesota Vikings host the Dallas Cowboys in Week 11, can QB Kirk Cousins and wide receiver Justin Jefferson build on last week's dramatic win over the Buffalo Bills? Our NFL power rankings look at our favorite against-the-spread picks for Week 11.

Jefferson amassed 193 receiving yards and hauled in one of the most impressive catches ever seen in a football game when the game against the Bills was on the line Sunday. With Cousins continuing to rock some chains on the team plane, the Vikings are now 8-1 on the season. In Week 11, should the Vikings be catching points when they host the Cowboys?

The following is the power rankings of my favorite point spread bets for Week 11 of the NFL season (odds via our best sportsbooks; lines as of Monday, Nov. 14 at 9 a.m. ET).

NFL ATS Picks Power Rankings for Week 11

10. Browns +9.5 (-110 via DraftKings Sportsbook) at Bills

With the Buffalo Bills trading as 9.5-point favorites, my numbers indicate that I should back the Cleveland Browns, but I cannot say that I am in love with this idea. I have ranked the Browns No. 10 in the power rankings for this reason. I do not automatically place a bet on every spread that the numbers suggest I should back; there is some level of human emotion associated with what I ultimately decide to bet on based on the numbers. In my opinion, this game is a stay-away, as I cannot place a bet on the Bills' side of the spread and I do not love the Browns' side either.

9. Texans +2.5 (-105 via DraftKings) vs. Commanders

Quarterback Taylor Heinicke has rejuvenated the Washington Commanders, and the outcome of their game against the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football may determine the direction of this spread. The Houston Texans appear to have a slight edge at +2.5, but if you can secure the key number of 3 points, the value of this wager increases significantly. You may be able to buy the Texans at +3 at some point throughout the week since the Commanders are trading at increased juice. I would hold off on placing this wager at this time.

8. Ravens -10.5 (-110 via FanDuel Sportsbook) vs. Panthers

The Carolina Panthers announced that quarterback P.J. Walker will miss this game due to a high ankle sprain, and Baker Mayfield will start at quarterback. In the wake of this announcement, the market moved the Baltimore Ravens from 12.5-point favorites to 10.5. Why? I had the Ravens priced as 13-point favorites, so there was really no edge for me in this game, but after the line moved to Ravens -10.5, I'd take the Ravens. When Mayfield replaces Walker, he is not worth two points to the spread.

7. Chargers +7 (-110 via Caesars Sportsbook) vs. Chiefs

Despite my belief that the Kansas City Chiefs are a premier team in the NFL, I believe that the market has overvalued them in their power ratings. I shared this opinion in Week 10 regarding the Chiefs, as they were 9.5-point favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars. While the Chiefs barely got the money when they won by 10 points, this outcome does not change my view of the Chiefs' spread for Week 11.

I make the Chiefs only 5-point favorites over the Los Angeles Chargers and we have seen the Chargers play well against the Chiefs since Brandon Staley took over as head coach.

6. Broncos -2.5 (-115 via BetMGM) vs. Raiders

Do I find myself excited that my numbers indicate that I should back Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos in Week 11? Absolutely not. However, I am open to the idea as I am firmly convinced that the Las Vegas Raiders intend to lose going forward. According to rumors circulating in the Twittersphere prior to the Raiders' game against the Indianapolis Colts, the Raiders have decided to move on from QB Derek Carr and are interested in drafting CJ Stroud. If the Raiders intend to draft Stroud, they better lose out as the Texans do not have many wins remaining on their schedule.

5. Eagles -8.5 (-110 via BetMGM) at Colts

I think the sportsbooks are expecting some support and liability for the new-look Indianapolis Colts after they won their first game under new head coach Jeff Saturday and offensive play-caller Parks Frazier. This results in the Eagles opening as smaller favorites than I have them priced at, which is why I am all over them with an 8.5-point spread. Yes, the Colts won against the Raiders on Sunday, but I am not convinced the Raiders are trying to win, and the Eagles now have film on a team coached by Saturday and Frazier.

4. Falcons -3 (-107 via PointsBet) vs. Bears

I am seeing a significant discrepancy between where I have the Chicago Bears in my power ratings and where they are trading in the market for the second consecutive week. Taking advantage of this discrepancy in Week 10 worked for me, as I backed the Detroit Lions at +3, so there is no reason to refrain from doing so in Week 11. It is my opinion that the Bears have been overvalued in the market due to Justin Fields' recent fantasy performances. Moreover, Marcus Mariota's lackluster performance in the Atlanta Falcons' Week 10 matchup against the Panthers has also contributed to a decrease in the public's opinion of them heading into Week 11. This has allowed us to secure a solid number.

3. Cowboys -1.5 (-107 via PointsBet) at Vikings

There is no doubt that this spread will be a very popular topic of discussion this week. How is it possible that the Cowboys are road favorites against the Vikings when the Cowboys just lost to the Green Bay Packers and the Vikings defeated the Bills on the road? The first thing that crossed my mind when I saw this spread was, why are the Cowboys only 1.5-point favorites? I make the Cowboys 3.5-point favorites over the Vikings and when the difference is 2 points on a low spread and it also incorporates key numbers, the value of the wager is very high.

2. Jets +3.5 (-105 via FanDuel) at Patriots

If Josh Allen got lost in the sauce in Week 9, what will happen when New England Patriots QB Mac Jones faces the New York Jets defense? In Week 11, the Jets are trading as 3.5-point underdogs against the Patriots and I strongly disagree with this spread. The Jets are the superior team, and you are going to give me the 3 points and the hook? J-E-T-S, JETS! JETS! JETS!

1. Lions +3.5 (-107 via PointsBet) at Giants

Even though the New York Giants are 7-2 on the season and the Lions are 3-6, I actually have the Lions higher in my power ratings than the Giants. Throughout the week, it will be fascinating to watch the movement of this spread, as I am certain I am not the only one who holds this opinion.

As I make the Giants only 1-point favorites over the Lions, I consider the 3.5-point spread to be a very valuable wager. The hook on the 3-point spread is critical to the value and I don't expect it to be available for long, so I wouldn't hesitate to place this wager.

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NFL against-the-spread picks made 11/14/2022 at 9 a.m. ET.

Written By:
Jon Metler

Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at 520ccc.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.