NFL Week 7 Picks Against the Spread for Every Game
Last Updated: October 15, 2024 12:24 PM EDT • 3 min 43 sec read.
If you didn't get the memo, away teams have been outstanding against the spread, with a 52-36-4 record through six weeks.
Things have also been going well on our side of the coin. We had a 10-4 ATS record in Week 6, which would have been 11-3 had I not flip-flopped last minute on the Jaguars-Bears contest.
- Favorites are 48-40-4 ATS, while away favorites are 21-9-2
- Away underdogs are 31-27-2 ATS, and the Super Bowl odds favorite Kansas City Chiefs are 3-1-1 ATS
- Minnesota is the only undefeated ATS team (5-0), and Carolina has the worst ATS record (1-5)
Our NFL Week 7 picks against the spread look to build on a 27-17 ATS record since Week 4 and a 51-41 overall mark.
NFL ATS picks Week 7: Every game
NFL odds via FanDuel and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos (-1.5) vs. Saints | Broncos (-1.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Patriots vs. Jaguars (-5.5) | Jaguars (-5.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Titans vs. Bills (-8.5) | Bills (-8.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Texans vs. Packers (-2.5) | Packers (-2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Dolphins vs. Colts (-3.5) | Colts (-3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Seahawks vs. Falcons (-2.5) | Falcons (-2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Lions vs. Vikings (-2.5) | Lions (+2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Bengals (-4.5) vs. Browns | Bengals (-4.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Eagles (-3) vs. Giants | Eagles (-3) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Raiders vs. Rams (-5.5) | Rams (-5.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Panthers vs. Commanders (-7.5) | Commanders (-7.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Chiefs vs. 49ers (-1.5) | 49ers (-1.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Jets (-1.5) vs. Steelers | Jets (-1.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Ravens (-3.5) vs. Buccaneers | Ravens (-3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Chargers vs. Cardinals (-2.5) | Chargers (+2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
My favorite ATS picks this week
NFL picks as of Tuesday. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Bengals (-4.5) vs. Browns
Best odds: | Implied probability: 51.92%
At this point, it's hard not to pick on the Cleveland Browns. Not only are they led by the league's most egregiously overpaid quarterback, but head coach Kevin Stefanski has no intention of benching Deshaun Watson.
The Browns are 2-4 ATS for various reasons.
Their defense, which is supposed to be a saving grace, has the 20th-ranked defensive DVOA. Without one of the league's best defenses, the Browns have absolutely no chance of vying for a playoff spot. That's because its offense has the league's worst offensive DVOA.
And then there's Joe Burrow and Co.
Burrow is 19-7 after Week 2 since the start of the 2022 season, and the Bengals are starting to resemble the team most expected at the beginning of the season. Ja'Marr Chase is back among the Offensive Player of the Year odds favorites after scoring five touchdowns in the last four games.
The Browns' stingy pass defense, which allows the fewest yards per game (164.7), has its work cut out, and I can't see Watson suddenly awakening from his two-year slumber.
At our best NFL betting sites, the Bengals are either 4.5 or 5-point favorites, and DraftKings offers the best price for the -4.5 line. A winning $10 bet will profit $9.26.
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Ravens (-3.5) vs. Buccaneers
Best odds: | Implied probability: 52.38%
Two of the top five offenses will be on display when the Baltimore Ravens and Tampa Bay Buccaneers clash on Monday night in Florida. ;
While Baker Mayfield's brilliance has the Buccaneers' offense up to fifth-ranked, the Ravens are the league's top-ranked offense. Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson, who's among the NFL MVP odds favorites, look unstoppable.
Their prolific ground game, which has the most yards per attempt (5.9) and yards per game (205.3), has made their second-ranked passing attack more effective.
While the Ravens' defense hasn't had a banner year, I have more faith in that unit than I do Tampa's.
However, both defenses have struggled in recent weeks. The Ravens have allowed 61 points in the last two games, while the Buccaneers conceded 63.
Still, until I see a team effectively slow the Ravens' run game, I'm backing them to win their fifth in a row and improve their ATS record to 4-2-1.
Chargers (-2.5) vs. Cardinals
Best odds: -118 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 54.13%
The Los Angeles Chargers are 3-1-1 against the spread and have already improved substantially under Jim Harbaugh's watchful eye. After leaving the sideline temporarily during the Chargers' 23-16 victory against the Broncos in Denver, .
Los Angeles has allowed the fewest points per game (13.2) and has the third-best defensive DVOA. Meanwhile, the Arizona Cardinals failed to score more than 14 points in three of the last four games.
The Chargers' 27th-ranked offense, which has scored the sixth-fewest points per game (18.2), won't scare any defense.
However, Justin Herbert and Co. should be able to put up enough points against the Cardinals' 29th-ranked defense, especially with the support of their 10th-ranked defense.
The Chargers are favored by 2.5 points at four of our five best sports betting apps. BetMGM, offering a line of -3, is the only outlier. DraftKings has the best price, and a winning $10 bet will profit $8.47.
NFL betting odds pages
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Gary Pearson
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