NFL Week 5 Picks Against the Spread Picks for Every Game
Last Updated: October 1, 2024 12:45 PM EDT • 3 min 64 sec read.
The Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Chargers, Detroit Lions, and Tennessee Titans enter their bye week, offering some time to rest up and take stock of their respective starts.
The Lions, whose Super Bowl odds are among the shortest, are the only team entering their bye week off a victory.
Everyone else is back at it, and we're ready for another pulsating, surprise-filled week of action. Here are some ATS betting trends of note to help with your NFL Week 5 predictions:
- Away teams are 34-26-3
- Home favorites are 37-33-3, and away favorites are 9-8-2
- Away underdogs are 25-18-1, and home underdogs are 8-9-2
Looking to build on our 9-7 ATS Week 4 record, here are Week 5 NFL picks against the spread for all 14 games.
NFL ATS picks Week 5: Every game
NFL odds via FanDuel and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers vs. Falcons (-1.5) | Buccaneers (+1.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Jets vs. Vikings (-2.5) | Vikings (-2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Ravens (-2.5) vs. Bengals | Ravens (-2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Panthers vs. Bears (-3.5) | Bears (-3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Dolphins vs. Patriots (-1.5) | Dolphins (+1.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Bills vs. Texans (-1.5) | Bills (+1.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Colts vs. Jaguars (-2.5) | Colts (+2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Browns vs. Commanders (-3) | Commanders (-3) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Cardinals vs. 49ers (-7.5) | 49ers (-7.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Raiders vs. Broncos (-2.5) | Raiders (+2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Packers vs. Rams (-3.5) | Packers (+3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Giants vs. Seahawks (-6.5) | Giants (+6.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Cowboys vs. Steelers (-1.5) | Cowboys (+1.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Saints vs. Chiefs (-5.5) | Saints (+5.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
My favorite ATS picks this week
NFL picks as of Tuesday. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Jets vs. Vikings (-2.5)
Best odds: | Implied probability: 52.38%
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It's off to jolly old England, where the New York Jets face the most pleasantly surprising team in the NFL through four weeks, the Minnesota Vikings.
I can't take the Jets after seeing them flounder at home against the Denver Broncos, especially as the Vikings have passed every stern challenge with flying colors. Facing the team that drafted him third overall in 2018, Sam Darnold will have a log-size chip on his shoulder.
The Vikings have the best defensive DVOA, the second-best run defense via PFF, the second-highest blitz rate (40.8%), the second-highest hurry percentage (12.4%), and the most sacks (17).
Brian Flores will look to make life even more miserable for Aaron Rodgers, who endured an abject outing in the MetLife rain last week.
Plus, the Jets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games and 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine against NFC opponents. Meanwhile, the Vikings are 5-0 ATS in their previous five against AFC East opponents.
bet365 currently offers the best price on the Vikings, with all of our NFL betting sites agreeing on the -2.5 line. A winning $10 bet will profit $9.09.
Mike Spector dives deeper into this matchup with his Jets vs. Vikings early picks.
Browns vs. Commanders (-3)
Best odds: | Implied probability: 54.55%
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The Cleveland Browns have the 26th-ranked offense via PFF. And if you've watched any of their games, you'll know why. While Deshaun Watson has the 19th-best passing grade, he has only four touchdown passes to three interceptions. Plus, their ground game has been woeful, ranking 24th, and they have the league's worst offensive DVOA.
And then there's the Washington Commanders, whose offense is on the opposite side of the fence, ranking second in DVOA with the fifth-best run attack.
The Browns are 1-5 ATS in their last six games, while the Commanders are 8-3-1 ATS in their previous 12 games against AFC North opponents.
DraftKings and BetMGM are offering a line of -3.5 by the NFL Week 5 odds while Caesars, FanDuel, and bet365 have the Commanders at -3.
I'm taking the -3 while it's still on the board. A $10 bet will profit $8.33.
Cardinals vs. 49ers (-7.5)
Best odds: | Implied probability: 51.22%
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I didn't think the 49ers would cover the 10-point spread against the New England Patriots at home in Week 4.
Boy, oh boy, was I wrong.
The 49ers marched up the field, seemingly uncontested at times. Brock Purdy threw three touchdown passes on one drive. While two were called back for penalties, he was back to his most proficient self.
Even with injuries still severely impacting the 49ers, I can't see the Arizona Cardinals, who have the 28th-ranked defensive DVOA, getting the stops they require to keep things close. The Cardinals have allowed the fourth-most points per game (26.5) and allowed 42 last week at home against the Commanders.
Plus, the Cardinals' offense has struggled in the last two weeks, scoring just 27 points.
A winning $10 bet will profit $9.52.
NFL betting odds pages
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- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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