NFL Against the Spread Picks for Week 11: Pats to Ground Jets For 14th Straight Time
Last Updated: November 16, 2022 8:47 AM EST • 2 min 23 sec read.
The New York Jets upset the Buffalo Bills in Week 9 - their last game - as double-digit underdogs, but the New England Patriots have dominated the division-rival Jets for years. See who we like in our favorite NFL against-the-spread picks for Week 11.
As hard as it is to get to the top in the NFL, it’s even harder to stay there.
In our best against-the-spread NFL picks for Week 11, we’re fading last year’s Super Bowl champions and the surprising AFC East leaders.
Here are our best ATS picks for Week 11 of the NFL season (odds via PointsBet, BetMGM, and Caesars Sportsbook).
Week 11 NFL Against The Spread Picks
- New Orleans Saints -4 (-107 via PointsBet)
- Chicago Bears +3.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
- New England Patriots -3 (-110 via Caesars)
Top NFL Against the Spread Predictions
New Orleans Saints -4 (-107)
Even with eight games remaining on their schedule, the Los Angeles Rams’ season is effectively over. Last week’s listless 27-17 loss to the Arizona Cardinals was the Rams' third straight defeat and fifth in six games, dropping them to 3-6 on the year and 1-3 in the division.
I don’t see how the defending Super Bowl champs get back up off the mat this week in New Orleans, especially now that star receiver Cooper Kupp is out for at least the next month with an ankle injury. Kupp ranks second in the NFL this year in catches and fifth in yards, and the Rams’ offense is still 29th in scoring and 31st in total yards. Imagine how bad that attack will be without him, not to mention the uncertainty of Matthew Stafford’s availability after he sat out last week with a concussion.
The Saints may be 3-7, but they’re still just two games out of first place in the NFC South. Their offense could also get a boost with the potential return of Jameis Winston, who threw for 353 yards in his last outing in Week 3 despite dealing with ankle and back injuries. Defensively, New Orleans’ pass rush can wreak havoc on a mediocre Rams offensive line that is decimated by injuries.
Chicago Bears +3.5 (-115)
Justin Fields’ emergence as the Chicago Bears franchise quarterback continued last week with a four-touchdown performance against the Detroit Lions. Two of those TDs came on the ground, including a 67-yard scamper for a score, and his 325 rushing yards over the past two weeks are the most ever by a quarterback in a two-game span.
Fields and the Bears’ league-leading running attack should have another huge game against the Atlanta Falcons' defense, which allowed 232 yards on the ground last week to the Carolina Panthers.
And though Chicago’s defense has been awful over the last three weeks, the Falcons have been held to 17 points or less in three of their last four games. The Dirty Birds have also come back to earth after a 6-0 ATS start, failing to cover each of their last four.
New England Patriots -3 (-110)
Three weeks ago, the New England Patriots went into MetLife Stadium as 3-point favorites and smothered the Jets 22-17 in a game that wasn’t as close as the score indicates. Zach Wilson completed less than half of his passes and was intercepted three times as New York scored just one touchdown until 1:51 remained in regulation.
Now we get the chance to back the Patriots at the same point spread price despite the fact that New England is at home. The Pats’ defense has been stellar since the start of October, allowing 17 points or less in four of their last five games, and Bill Belichick has had the bye week to prepare for a rematch with Wilson.
New England has won each of its last 13 games vs. the Jets by a field goal or more, and I expect a similar result in this divisional matchup.
Where to Bet on NFL Against the Spread Picks
NFL against the spread picks made 11/16/2022 at 9:52 a.m. ET
Connor Cooper
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