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NFL Against the Spread Odds Picks, Predictions for Week 17: Motivation Levels Vary in Late-Season Matchups

Connor Cooper

Last Updated: December 28, 2022 9:33 AM EST • 3 min 23 sec read.

The Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots have plenty to play for this week, while the Denver Broncos look to rebound from an ugly loss to the Rams. Read on for our favorite Week 17 against the spread NFL picks, based on the odds.

With just two weeks to go in the regular season, gauging each team’s motivation levels becomes a huge part of the handicapping process.

For example, the Patriots and Dolphins will both leave it all out on the field this week when they meet in a game that has huge wild card implications. However, the Jaguars might choose to rest their top players in a meaningless game at Houston, and the ;Broncos are playing their first game under a new head coach.

We look to exploit some of these situations in our best NFL against-the-spread picks for Week 17 (odds via , , and ; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NFL upset picks.

NFL Against The Spread Picks for Week 17

  • Denver Broncos +13.5 (-110 via Caesars) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
  • Houston Texans +4.5 (-110 via FanDuel) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
  • New England Patriots -2.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Miami Dolphins

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NFL ATS Predictions

Denver Broncos +13.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

If there was any question that the Broncos had quit on first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett, that was answered in last week’s humiliating 51-14 loss at the Rams. Denver fired Hackett the following day and we should see a bounce back effort from the Broncos in this spot, especially from a proud defense that was the league’s best in the first 13 weeks of the season.

KC has motivation to win this game as well as it can still overtake Buffalo for the #1 seed in the AFC. However, a two-touchdown spread looks like too much to lay with a Chiefs team that has struggled to win by margin this year, covering the spread last week for the first time since Week 7. Saturday’s 24-10 win over the Seahawks was also the first time Kansas City had covered a spread at home all year.

The line has dropped a bit at most sportsbooks since Kansas City opened as a 13.5-point favorite, but Caesars was one of the few sportsbooks still offering standard -110 juice on Denver +13.5.

Houston Texans +4.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Even though they’ve won just two games all year, the Texans are still playing hard for head coach Lovie Smith. After nearly upsetting the Cowboys in Dallas and then taking the Chiefs into overtime in its previous two games, Houston was finally rewarded last week with a 19-14 victory in Tennessee — the third straight game in which the Texans beat the spread by more than a touchdown.

This game means nothing to the Jaguars, who will host a winner-take-all clash with the Titans next week for the AFC South title. That could mean limited action for quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who was on the injury report last week with a nagging toe injury, and the Jags don’t have much to work on after winning five of their last seven games.

Houston has enjoyed the upper hand recently in this division rivalry, covering seven of the last nine meetings, and the situation sets up nicely for the Texans to improve on those numbers once again. Most sportsbooks had dropped their line on this game down to Jacksonville -4, but you could still catch +4.5 with Houston at Caesars and FanDuel.

New England Patriots -2.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

New England has lost four of its last five games to fall out of playoff position in the AFC, but the recent results are misleading. The Patriots held a seven-point lead in the final minute two weeks ago in Las Vegas before losing that game on a ridiculous double lateral, then might have upset the Bengals last week if not for a late fumble by Rhamondre Stevenson inside the Cincy five-yard line.

The Patriots should pull out of their funk against a Miami team that is in a free fall of its own, dropping four straight after winning its previous five. On Wednesday, head coach Mike McDaniel  confirmed that quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, has been ruled out due to the concussion he suffered during the Christmas Day defeat to the Green Bay Packers. That means Teddy Bridgewater will be the starter under center. The Dolphins’ defense has been awful on the road this season, allowing an average of 31.5 points per game. By contrast, the Patriots are giving up just 19 points per game this year at Gillette Stadium.

Although Miami opened as a one-point favorite, the Patriots quickly flipped to favorites and it won’t be a surprise if the line closes at a field goal or higher. At the time of writing, however, you could still grab the Pats -2.5 -110 at Caesars, BetMGM or PointsBet.

NFL against-the-spread picks made 12/28/2022 at 11:13 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Connor Cooper
Connor Cooper has written about sports in various capacities for more than 20 years, including as a newspaper reporter, sports handicapper, and betting analyst. He originates hockey plays every day throughout the NHL season, regularly bets his own opinions on NFL and college football, and relies on handicappers he trusts to find daily action in basketball, baseball, soccer, tennis, and golf. A diehard Maple Leafs and Blue Jays fan growing up in the Toronto area, Connor quickly shed all his allegiances once he realized that making money betting on sports was much more fun than cheering for his favorite team. Connor won’t hesitate to bet on — or against — anybody if that’s where the value lies. In addition to analyzing recent and season-long statistics, Connor always looks to account for the human element when breaking down games, weighing situational and motivational factors into his handicapping process. He's also a big believer in finding creative ways to generate more value, constantly scouring BetMGM, Caesar, FanDuel, and other regulated sportsbooks' derivative markets such as team totals, alternate lines, and player props.