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Aaron Rodgers MNF Player Prop Bets: Touchdown Picks & Odds

Philip Wood

Last Updated: October 14, 2024 1:02 PM EDT • 3 min 47 sec read.

New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers reacts as we look at out best Aaron Rodger player props for MNF.
New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers reacts against the Minnesota Vikings in the second half at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Photo by: Kirby Lee/Imagn Images.

After throwing three interceptions last week, Aaron Rodgers will look to rebound when his New York Jets host the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football.

The latest Monday Night Football odds have moved in favor of the New York Jets ahead of the huge AFC East tilt. How does this movement affect the best Aaron Rodgers MNF player prop bets? That movement will probably just further reinforce Mike Spector's take in his Bills vs. Jets prediction. 

The Bills’ pass defense ranks in the top half of the league, but their run defense has been very bad this season. With Todd Downing now calling the plays for the Jets, will he choose to run the ball with his two very good running backs, or will he continue to put the offense squarely on the shoulders of Rodgers? We answer these questions below as part of our NFL predictions for Week 6.

Aaron Rodgers prop predictions for Monday Night Football

  • Aaron Rodgers touchdown pick: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns () ⭐⭐
  • Aaron Rodgers Under 218.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Aaron Rodgers Under 34.5 passing attempts (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

NFL odds as of Monday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

Aaron Rodgers touchdown pick vs. Bills

Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+155) ⭐⭐

Rodgers has thrown two touchdowns in three of his five games. The Bills are allowing 1.2 touchdowns per game this season. With these stats in mind, the price of +135 being offered at DraftKings seems much more reasonable. It implies a 42.55% chance of Rodgers hitting this Over. Our First Touchdown Scorer Predictions and Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions have a particular target of his in mind to find paydirt.

Only one quarterback has thrown for more than one touchdown against the Bills this season. While that’s alarming for Rodgers, it’s also worth noting that every quarterback has thrown at least one touchdown pass. So, there is no value in taking Rodgers under 0.5 passing touchdowns.

The price for the under ranges from -180 to -205. With a floor of one passing touchdown in this game, that’s way too expensive. The running backs may take Rodgers’ touchdowns, but if you’re going to bet on his passing touchdowns, the Over is the way to go.

Best odds: +155 via bet365 | Implied probability: 39.22%

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Aaron Rodgers player props

NFL picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Aaron Rodgers Under 218.5 passing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Bills have allowed 144.0 rushing yards per game. And while their run defense has been bad, their pass defense has been solid. They’re allowing fewer than 200 passing yards per game, even after giving up 331 yards to CJ Stroud last week.

Because the Jets have two solid running backs, they will use the run a lot in this game, likely with great success. That means fewer opportunities for Rodgers. He threw for fewer than 200 yards in the first two weeks of the season, and even last week, when he attempted 54 passes, he only threw for 244 yards.

The total is set at 218.5 at both bet365 and BetMGM. FanDuel has the total listed at 213.5, and they’re asking the same price for the under as bet365 is. Caesars is asking -127 for under 216.5. 

Our Bills vs. Jets player props don't think his Bills counterpart is going to toss for many yards, either.

Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%

Aaron Rodgers Under 34.5 pass attempts (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

Rodgers has thrown at least 35 passes in his last three games. Yet, once again, this game will be about the rushing attack. If the Jets fall behind early, then maybe Rodgers will be called upon more, but based on how the Bills have played the past two weeks, there’s no reason to think they’ll score much against this defense.

In his first game, expect Downing to exploit the Bills’ weak defense and focus less on getting Rodgers involved. After all, the Jets are 2-1 when Rodgers throws the ball 35 times or less this season. We're not expecting many passes in our Josh Allen player props, either.

Each of our best sports betting apps sets the total at 33.5, except for bet365, so it's the clear place to take the Under with the extra pass attempt baked in.

Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%

Bills vs. Jets odds

Monday Night Football game info

  • Matchup: Monday, Oct. 14
  • Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.
  • How to watch: ESPN/ABC
  • Weather: 54 degrees, 10% chance of precipitation, wind 15 mph NW
  • Favorite: Bills -1 (-110 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.