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49ers vs. Seahawks Prediction Tonight: Thursday Night Football Odds & TNF Picks

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 10, 2024 5:16 PM EDT • 4 min 49 sec read.

Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba celebrates as we offer our 49ers vs. Seahawks prediction tonight for Thursday Night Football.
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba celebrates. Photo by Joe Nicholson / Imagn Images.

After both sides lost as a home favorite last week, the San Francisco 49ers (2-3) and Seattle Seahawks (3-2) look to get right tonight on Thursday Night Football in an NFC West showdown at Lumen Field, which kicks off at 5:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video.

  • San Francisco and Seattle lost as the two biggest favorites on the Week 5 slate
  • The 49ers have a losing record (2-3) through five games for the seventh time in the last 10 seasons
  • San Francisco has won five consecutive head-to-head meetings with Seattle (4-1 ATS)

Our 49ers vs. Seahawks prediction based on the Thursday Night Football odds expects the home underdogs to cover the spread despite the long losing streak in this head-to-head rivalry.

San Francisco's Super Bowl odds finally began to slip with last week's loss. I lean the other way on this game than our Phil Wood did with his 49ers vs. Seahawks early picks, but we have a chance to split the difference to kick off our NFL predictions for Week 6.

We also broke down this game's potential heroes in our anytime touchdown scorer predictions along with our first touchdown scorer predictions.

49ers vs. Seahawks odds movement: Thursday Night Football

The 49ers opened as 3-point favorites across our best sportsbooks to beat their NFC West rivals, and the market quickly nudged that line up by a half-point to settle at Niners -3.5 in the hours before tonight's kickoff.

That comes even with nearly a perfect 50/50 split on wagers for either side, suggesting the potential for sharp money on San Francisco after a 2-3 start for last year's Super Bowl runner-up.

The total has also climbed from as low as 46.5 earlier in the week to a near-consensus 49 as kickoff approaches, though you can still bet Over 48.5 at -110 odds via FanDuel.

Best 49ers vs. Seahawks picks

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Seahawks +3.5 () vs. 49ers ⭐⭐⭐
  • My best bet: Brock Purdy Under 1.5 passing touchdowns () ⭐⭐⭐

49ers vs. Seahawks against the spread prediction: Thursday Night Football

Seahawks to cover the spread: +3.5 (-112) ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -112 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.83%

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49ers’ inability to finish games

Some will look at this as a positive for San Francisco, but the 49ers are 0-2 in division games after leading both by 10-plus points in the fourth quarter. Those two losses, coupled with the 49ers’ Week 2 loss to the Minnesota Vikings dropped them to 0-3 against NFC opponents for the first time since 2017. 

San Francisco was inexplicably shut out in the second half last week, despite entering Week 5 ranked second in EPA per dropback while facing a Cardinals defense that ranked 27th in EPA per dropback allowed. 

Brock Purdy comes in with no momentum

49ers quarterback Brock Purdy turned in his fourth career game with multiple interceptions last week, and the team has unsurprisingly lost all four of those contests. In addition, he completed just 54% of his passes last week, which was the second-worst in a start in his career.

It was not like Purdy was under much pressure having been hit five total times (and sacked twice). He could not even find success through the help of a running game that churned out 153 rushing yards and averaged 5.9 yards per carry. 

Expect positive regression from Seattle’s pass defense

Entering Week 5 against the Giants, Seattle’s pass defense had allowed just nine catches of 20-plus yards through the first four weeks. That makes it all the more surprising that the Seahawks allowed three such passes to the Giants, and will be a focal point entering a matchup against a high-powered 49ers offense.

It helps that Seattle’s defense has 17 sacks this season, and three or more sacks in four consecutive games. 

The Seahawks are a play at anything north of a field goal. So while Caesars and bet365 offer a spread of +3, I am looking to the other NFL betting sites that have a line of +3.5, and DraftKings is the only one charging less than -115 odds to back the underdogs.

A $10 winning wager at DraftKings’-112 odds would net $8.93 in profits.

My 49ers vs. Seahawks best bet

Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Brock Purdy Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+100) ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +100 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 50.00%

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Seattle allowed 11.2 yards per reception and two passing touchdowns to a Daniel Jones-led Giants offense last week. That's likely why we can find plus-money odds for the Under for Purdy’s touchdowns.

Purdy has averaged 264.7 passing yards per game and has two passing touchdowns in two of his three career starts against Seattle. However, the Seahawks entered last week ranked in the top nine in yards per attempt and passing yards per game allowed. They also ranked in the top half of the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks.

Instead, I expect Kyle Shanahan to see that Giants backup running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. ran for 129 yards and 7.2 yards per carry last week and to attack Seattle via the run. That seems like the weaker unit for the Seahawks defensively, as they allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate even before being torched by Tracy last week.

It is not often one can find even-money odds on a standard player prop O/U, but this is great value at BetMGM, as FanDuel offers standard -110 juice on either side of this total.

But if Purdy does throw at least one touchdown pass, Wood expects it to go to Brandon Aiyuk in his 49ers vs. Seahawks TNF prop bets.

We dive further into the San Francisco QB's outlook tonight in our Brock Purdy TNF player prop bets.

49ers vs. Seahawks odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Thursday Night Football game info

  • Matchup: 49ers vs. Seahawks
  • Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET 
  • Where: Lumen Field (Seattle)
  • How to watch: Amazon Prime Video
  • Weather: 52 degrees, 20% chance of precipitation, wind 7 mph N
  • Favorite: 49ers -3.5 (-105 via BetMGM)

NFL betting odds pages

Here are our best NFL betting sites:

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”