Tennessee vs. Florida Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds for Jan. 7
Last Updated: January 7, 2025 7:45 AM EST • 3 min 25 sec read.
The Tennessee Volunteers and Florida Gators are two of six SEC teams that are 13-1 or better. They meet in a high-profile conference matchup on Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2) from “The Swamp” in Gainesville, Fla.
- Tennessee is off to its first 14-0 start since 1922-23
- The Volunteers are the only undefeated team remaining in the country
- Florida suffered its first loss in its last game, a 106-100 road loss at Kentucky
My Tennessee vs. Florida prediction examines if Tennessee can pass its second test as an underdog with Florida lined as a 2.5-point home favorite with an O/U of 148.5 points.
With a slightly lower total and a bigger spread, my Pittsburgh vs. Duke prediction has you covered for another high-caliber tilts tipping off at the same time.
Tonight's best Tennessee vs. Florida picks
College basketball picks based on the odds from our best March Madness betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Tennessee +2.5 vs. Florida () ⭐⭐⭐
- My best pick: Walter Clayton Under 17.5 points () ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Tennessee vs. Florida ATS prediction
Tennessee to cover the spread: +2.5 ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -105 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 51.22%
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Tennessee is dominating
The Volunteers have matched their best start in program history at 14-0, and have done it in dominant fashion.
They are coming off a 24-point win against Arkansas, their seventh-largest ever over a ranked opponent, and have trailed for fewer than 47 of a possible 560 minutes. And 13 of Tennessee’s 14 wins have come by 13-plus points.
Confidence in the Volunteers on the road
Tennessee has only played one true road game this season, a two-point win at Illinois. But its resolve in that victory was on full display. The Vols won despite allowing 36 free-throw attempts, holding the Fighting Illini to 17.4% (4-of-23) from beyond the arc.
The Volunteers are a veteran team that ranks in the top 20 in the country in average D-I experience. Their ability to assist on made field goals (59.6% ranks 42nd) while limiting opponents in that regard (43.1% ranks 31st) is where they impose their will.
Florida’s only win against a top-55 KenPom opponent is against a struggling 9-6 North Carolina squad.
Thus, while the atmosphere in “The Swamp” should be electric, I need to see the Gators consistently beat better teams before I back them to take down the No. 1 team in the country.
FanDuel is one point lower with Tennessee at +1.5, while some of our other best sports betting apps have the Volunteers juiced to -108 or higher to back them at +2.5. Through BetMGM’s -105 odds, a $10 winning wager would pay out $19.52.
Tennessee vs. Florida best pick
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Walter Clayton Under 17.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -120 via Caesars | Implied probability: 54.55%
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Clayton had scored 12 or fewer points in three consecutive games before exploding for a season-high 33 against Kentucky over the weekend.
The Florida guard made a season-high six 3-pointers on 12 attempts against the Wildcats, but Kentucky has allowed a high jump-shot rate with a compact defense thus far under Mark Pope.
Now he draws a much different defensive assignment in Zakai Zeigler, the reigning SEC Defensive Player of the Year.
Look for Zeigler to make Clayton put the ball on the floor more than he would like, and for Tennessee’s D-I leading 24.3% 3-point percentage allowed to lower the ceiling considerably for Clayton’s point total.
Live Tennessee vs. Florida odds
See all of this week's college basketball odds and NCAAB scores.
Tennessee vs. Florida opening odds
- Spread: Tennessee +2.5 (-105 via BetMGM) | Florida -2.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
- Over/Under: Over 149.5 (-115 via BetMGM) | Under 149.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
- Moneyline: Tennessee +125 | Florida -150
Tennessee vs. Florida injuries
Tennessee vs. Florida game info
- When: Tuesday, Jan. 7
- Tip-off: 7 p.m. ET
- Where: Stephen O'Connell Center (Gainesville, Fla.)
- How to watch: ESPN2
- Favorite: Florida -2.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
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Mike Spector