In-state rivals Baylor and Texas Tech meet in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament tonight. Tipoff from T-Mobile Center in Kansas City is set for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN).

Our Baylor vs. Texas Tech prediction, odds, and expert picks for this Big 12 quarterfinal recognize that the Bears have not put together a winning streak longer than two games in 2025, but we respect head coach Scott Drew in a tournament setting.

The Red Raiders beat the Bears 73-59 at home on Feb. 4, but we explain what will be different in this rematch.

💰 Baylor vs. Texas Tech predictions, expert picks & best bets: Big 12 quarterfinal

Here are my best Baylor vs. Texas Tech predictions, expert picks, and best bets today for Big 12 quarterfinal with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. Be sure to check out the rest of our college basketball picks along with our guide on how to bet on college basketball.

• Against the spread pick: Baylor +6.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Texas Tech ⭐⭐⭐
• My best player prop bet: JT Toppin Over 8.5 rebounds (-130 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Exact score prediction: Texas Tech 72, Baylor 69 (+16000 via DraftKings)

👉 Check out our latest March Madness projections with our SBR Bracketology ahead of the NCAA Tournament!

🏀 Baylor vs. Texas Tech ATS prediction & best player prop bet pick

Here's why I'm betting on Baylor to cover the spread (+6.5) while targeting JT Toppin Over 8.5 rebounds as my best player prop bet pick for today:

✅ Baylor to cover the spread (+6.5) ⭐⭐⭐

Baylor played its first game against Texas Tech without star freshman VJ Edgecombe, as it was one of two games he missed all year.

Edgecombe is a versatile defender and elite scorer who ranks second on the team in points (15.1 per game), second in rebounds (5.6), second in assists (3.3), and first in steals (2.1). 

His presence should make a huge difference in helping guard Chance McMillian or Darrion Williams, who combined for 36 points and eight 3-pointers in the first meeting.

The Bears were 1-9-2 ATS in true road games this year, but Baylor is 8-4 ATS in NCAA Tournament games and has covered 59% of its games when at a rest disadvantage since 2020. Thus, I am not worried about tired legs with Baylor playing yesterday.

📊 Best odds: -110 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $9.09)

🔥 JT Toppin Over 8.5 rebounds ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Red Raiders forward JT Toppin has been lighting up the scoreboard of late. Toppin has scored 21-plus points in seven of the last nine games while averaging 24.4 points per game in that span.

Baylor held Toppin to just eight points in the first meeting, and Scott Drew’s morphing 1-1-3 zone and versatile 1-through-5 switch in man-to-man has me hesitant to back Toppin’s point total in this rematch.

However, Toppin has secured 25 rebounds in the last two games combined, and Baylor ranked 13th in Big 12 play in offensive rebounding percentage allowed (31.5%). 

Thus, Toppin should exceed this projected total, finding soft spots when Baylor does play zone defense to attack the offensive glass.

Those that think Toppin will secure double-digit rebounds for the third straight game will find FanDuel’s +105 odds for the Over of 9.5 rebounds more enticing. I prefer to play it safer with a wager on the Over of 8.5 at BetMGM.

📊 Best odds: -130 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $7.69)

🎯 Expert Baylor vs. Texas Tech score prediction

🔮 Expert score prediction: Texas Tech 72, Baylor 69

Texas Tech has lost only one game in the new year to a team that finished lower than fifth in the Big 12. That is why I am not calling for an outright upset, but I am predicting a final score of Texas Tech 72, Baylor 69.

📊 Best odds: +16000 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $1600)

📊 Live Baylor vs. Texas Tech odds & latest betting splits

Here are the latest odds for Baylor vs. Texas Tech, which update live in real time. You can also check out our NEW college basketball player prop odds tool for the latest college basketball odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your region.

🔢 Baylor vs. Texas Tech opening odds

Here's a look at the opening odds for Baylor vs. Texas Tech according to BetMGM.

• Spread: Baylor +6.5 (-115) | Texas Tech -6.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: Baylor +200 | Texas Tech -250
• Over/Under: Over 141.5 (-105) | Under 141.5 (-115)

🏆 Who will win Baylor vs. Texas Tech?

As of Thursday afternoon, Texas Tech is favored by 6.5 points to beat Baylor with moneyline odds of -295 at BetMGM, which suggest a 74.68% win probability for the Red Raiders. We're predicting a 72-69 win for Texas Tech as our final score projection.

So far, 57% of bettors have wagered against the spread on Texas Tech +6.5, while 63% of bettors expect the game to finish Under the projected total of 141.5 points.

📺 How to watch Baylor vs. Texas Tech tonight

📅 Date: Thursday, March 13
🕗 Time: 7 p.m. ET
📍 Location: T-Mobile Center (Kansas City, Mo.)
📺 TV: ESPN
💻 Streaming: ESPN+

❓ Baylor vs. Texas Tech FAQs

Who's favored to win the Big 12 tournament?

Houston was favored to win the Big 12 Conference tournament at the start of Thursday, with -135 moneyline odds at DraftKings.

Who is favored to win Baylor vs. Texas Tech?

Texas Tech is the moneyline favorite to beat Baylor. The Red Raiders are trading at -295 at our best sports betting apps, giving them a 74.68% implied probability.

What are the betting odds for Baylor vs. Texas Tech?

The latest spread is Texas Tech -6.5 (-110) | Baylor +6.5 (-110), with a total ranging between 140.5 and 141.5 points (-110).

What will be the final score of Baylor vs. Texas Tech?

We're predicting a final score of Texas Tech 72, Baylor 69 entering tonight's matchup at T-Mobile Center.

What time is Baylor vs. Texas Tech tonight?

Tipoff for Baylor vs. Texas Tech is slated for tonight at 7 p.m. ET.

⛹️ Best college basketball betting sites

Looking to bet on college basketball tonight? Here are our best March Madness betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best March Madness betting promos ahead of the NCAA Tournament.

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