USA vs. France Prediction, Odds, Pick: Who Will Win Men's Olympic Basketball Gold Medal Game?

The Olympic men's basketball gold medal game tips off Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET, and you couldn't ask for a better backdrop to determine the men's Olympic basketball odds champion.

Team USA is a 16.5-point favorite across our best sports betting sites to win a fifth consecutive gold medal after a riveting 17-point comeback against Serbia and NBA MVP odds favorite Nikola Jokic. Standing in its way is host France, which has added Victor Wembanyama to a team that lost the gold medal to the Americans at Tokyo 2020.

Here is our best USA vs. France prediction based on the odds for Saturday's showdown, and don't miss our USA vs. France player props.

USA vs. France prediction for Saturday's gold medal game

USA vs. France odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Prediction: USA -16.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Human nature is undefeated, and it looked for a moment like Team USA might fall victim in the semifinals. After blitzing through their first four games, the Americans fell behind by 17 against Serbia and trailed by 11 points in the fourth quarter.

What we saw in that final period was mesmerizing proof of what is possible when you put 12 of the best basketball players on the planet onto one roster. Stephen Curry (36 points) poured in a "god-like performance" in the words of teammate Kevin Durant, who scored seven of his nine points in the fourth quarter.

That's to say nothing of the triple-double performance from LeBron James, who took over down the stretch as he's done so many times this tournament. When the lights have been brightest in Paris, the all-time great has responded - as has this entire USA lineup.

France faces tough test at home

The hosts have also earned their way to this gold medal game, holding off a late rally from favored Germany to set up a rematch of the last Olympic final.

Still, France has been shaky in this tournament, especially when Victor Wembanyama isn't on his game offensively. That's been the case for most of these Olympics, as he's shooting just 37.5% from the field while scoring a team-high 13.8 points and struggling to have his usual defensive impact.

This is a balanced attack that the Americans will face Saturday, but the French don't have the same upside without an elite interior defense manned by Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert - who has, once again, played himself off the floor in a critical playoff moment.

Bet the USA to win gold

As we've seen throughout this entire tournament, no team can keep up with the Americans when they are playing at their best.

They showed a new level on Thursday that even coach Steve Kerr was in awe of after the game. And it's hard to get complacent when you're playing for the gold medal against the tournament hosts with the whole world watching.

Odds: -108 | Implied probability: 51.92%

USA vs. France odds & game info

• When: Saturday, Aug. 10
• Tip-off: 3:30 p.m. ET
• Where: AccorHotels Arena (Paris)
• How to watch: NBC, Peacock (streaming)
• Favorite: USA -16.5 (-108)

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